And Trout wasn't doing them either, till this year. In this one season he's hit more HR than he did in 1,117 AB in four seasons in the minors, and this was his line in his first 123 AB in the bigs in 2011:
.220 .281 .390 .672
This is Zunino's line in his first minor league season:
.377 .476 .738 1.214
That's better than any of Trout's minor league seasons; so how can anybody be certain that he won't be as good as Trout in the majors? They can't.
Chris and xtourist I wrote this a month ago on the Montero trade thread when he was in Everett.http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?sr=y&msg=41874.24&nav=messages&webtag=ml-mariners
"Zunino has hit safely in everyone of his Minor League games too. He has started off better than Trout did at "A" Ball but don't get it twisted I'm not saying he is or isn't better player than Trout. However comparisons are irrevelant at this point because he has to establish himself thru the various levels A, AA, AAA.
The NCAA switched to modified aluminum bats (BBCOR) which have the same pop as wooden bats. Normally you would see players numbers dip after a transition like that. However Zuninos numbers weren't affected.
What we do know is he is a plus power guy with a very good baseball intellect or Baseball Rat. While everyone else was wining and dining at the Zunino house. Mike Zunino and Tom McNamara were discussing calling a game and other baseball things.
His dad is a scout for the Reds. Mike can flat out crush a ball when he hits HR's just look him up on You Tube. He was also considered the best developed offensive bat in the 2012 draft. He has a knack for calling a game as a catcher, and was a natural clubhouse leader with the Gators. I'm not sure our catchers can do that to the same level. As a batter he works the count and doesn't free swing like some batters we have. Hes tough as nails and played thru a broken thumb once.
Anyways...most of this info can all be found in various articles and scouting reports on the net."
That said he's still a prospect I understand. However he skipped to AA as you know. While they called 2012 a weak draft Mike isn't by a stretch. He's projected to reach the majors faster than anyone in his draft class or was projected to.
He started out the 1st two games at Jackson with a low average because he was adjusting after those 2 games his BA went thru the roof and he hit 2HR's in two days.
Trout is a great outfielder and is probably looking at some awards this year. I expect him also to have a sophomore slump or decline in 2013 or 2014. No not a Ackley slump but his numbers will probably drop when the league has the book or good scouting report on him.
Zunino still has something to prove no doubt as he needs time at AA and AAA first. He has committed a couple errors in the minors but he'll adjust. I don't know how good he will be when/if he's called up. But the future looks bright with him.
I think it's just silly thinking that anybody is going to be Trout. What he's doing right now is historic. Expecting historic every time is just silly.
That being said, Trout is a superb mix of talents. He's got great speed, good pop in his bat, and good contact ability. He's much more Ricky Henderson than Willie Mays, but I'm fairly sure people would take either. Mostly ignored is Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates, who is doing mostly what Trout is doing. In both cases, we've got some folks having a great season with a bit of luck on their side (BABIPs slightly elevated, even for speedsters who generally post higher than average BABIPs, and home runs per flyball rate). This isn't to discount what they're doing, but they're probably not THIS good going forward.
In any event, Trout was drafted with pick 25 in the first round. Several teams passed him up, including the Angels (they picked 24 and 25 and took Randall Grichuk before Trout). Every team is looking for a Trout like player in the draft every season, and very few of them ever turn up. Oh, sure, you get your Strasburgs, Longorias, Rodriguezes, etc, but these kinds of generational talents are not that common folks. Expecting Zunino or anybody else to be a new Trout is, again, silly.
All I want out of Zunino is to be productive. With the core building already, Zunino is just another helpful cog in the machine. As long as he does his part, I'll be satisfied.
The top two Wild Card teams from each league make the postseason and play each other in a one-game playoff.Wild Card Teams W L PCT WCGB WCE # L10 STRK
Tampa Bay68 55 .553 - - 7-3 L1
Baltimore67 56 .545 - - 6-4 W1
Oakland66 56 .541 0.5 40 6-4 W1
Detroit65 57 .533 1.5 39 5-5 W1
LA Angels63 60 .512 4.0 36 3-7 W1
Seattle60 64 .484 7.5 32 9-1 W7
Boston59 64 .480 8.0 32 4-6 L2
Toronto56 66 .459 10.5 30 3-7 L3
Kansas City55 67 .451 11.5 29 7-3 W1
Cleveland54 69 .439 13.0 27 2-8 L7
Minnesota51 71 .418 15.5 25 2-8 L1
Moving on up BTW don't look now but KC is 4 games back of us lol.
> What I am saying is plain logic: We have no data suggesting that Zunino won't be as good a hitter as Trout
That isn't how logic works. You can't assume something unlikely because we can't prove it won't happen.
Too early to tell with only just over a month in the minors. That isn't a measure of success in the majors. We don't know how good he will or won't be.
What we do know is he looks great on paper and there's no reason to think he can't be what we're all hoping for. I am optimistic about his potential for now. That said the logic all side I remain cautious with the high attrition rate of prospects in the minor league.
Barring injury I don't see how he can't be successful in the bigs.
Trout is at the bigs and making his case no doubt. Zunino is potentially the best catcher in our organization and he has the offensive numbers right now to back it up.
I never said that he is Trout or will be and frankly it doesn't matter at this point. I said we could have or potential to be.
Let's just remember what I said earlier. We don't know what his potential is. Being a catcher having good offensive numbers could be huge if he keeps it up. For now we just wait and see what happens in Jackson and Tacoma before sizing him up.
"That isn't how logic works. You can't assume something unlikely because we can't prove it won't happen. "
Once more, with feeling.
I didn't say it was likely Zunino would hit as well as Trout, nor did I assume he would. I said we have no data to support the declaration that he won't. The data we had on Trout before he came up didn't suggest that he would; and the data we have on Zunino is better than the data we had for Trout. To state, as though it were an established fact, that something can't happen because it's unlikely to happen, even though it's happened before with less supportive data to suggest that it would, is to assume too much. That's how logic works.
"There's the fact that Trout is younger and faster than Zunino and hitting almost as well in the majors as Zunino is hitting in Low A Short Season. And Trout is an elite defender in center field. Trout, as a 20 year old, is the best player in baseball. And he wasn't even in the major leagues in April!"
We're comparing their respective abilities at the plate, not their fielding abilities. Comparing a catcher's defense to a center fielder's is a fairly pointless exercise. Their jobs on the field aren't comparable. Comparing their abilities to hit the ball is a legitimate exercise. Trout's speed factors into his offense to the extent that he can take extra bases and steal them. Beyond that, it's irrelevant as it pertains to his offensive potential.
And, again, there was nothing in Trout's past performance to suggest he would be this good; it therefore makes no sense to declare, as if it were an established fact, that another player with better numbers at the same minor league level can't possibly be as good a hitter. You stated categorically that he won't be. You have no way of knowing that, however probable it might be. Trout's present performance wasn't probable -- but it's happening.
BTW, I bit my tongue when I saw Melky Cabrera turn into Superman for the Giants this year, but my suspicion proved true. I'm not going to bite my tongue in Trout's case. They should drug-test this kid.
And how old was Trout when he was putting up those numbers? What numbers in Low A Short Season would Trout put up if he was there next year when he's the same age as Zunino is now?
Also, of course no one saw it right away. Or he would have been drafted above Strasburg. Before 2010, he'd barely played (seeing as he'd literally just been drafted). He was 18. No college numbers to look at. Very quickly into that season, he shot up the ladder to the top 10 and before 2011, he was right at the top with Harper.
A better comparison would probably be Posey as Zunino's ceiling.
"Do I think Zunino will perform at Trout's "historic" levels?"
Firstly, Zunino CAN'T perform at Trout's historic levels. Trout is 20. Zunino is 21. Likely Zunino will be a rookie when he's 23.
"I have no problem with somebody saying he "probably" won't be as good; but I do have a problem with declarative statements asserting without qualification that he won't be -- because there's no data (other than the vague "it's never been done before, therefore it can't happen again," which really isn't data) to support that kind of certitude."
Fine, I'll rephrase: It's highly, highly, highly, ridiculously, massively, earth-ending-in-2012-likely, crazily, idiotically likely that Zunino will not have a single season in his career where he is as good as Mike Trout in Mike Trout's age 20 season.
"They should drug-test this kid."
Everyone who is good must be juicing! A-Rod was in '96! Griffey must have been during his first decade! Pujols too! Edgar! They just didn't test them obviously! But they should have so they could catch em!
Griffey didn't go from a sub-mediocre debut of 40 games with a .220 AVG and a .390 SLG to a .344 AVG and a .606 SLG in his second year. That's one helluva sophomore slump. This guy is killing major-league pitching better than he hit the pitchers in A-ball and better than all the major-leaguers, including the cream of the crop. But it's not nice to talk about juice because it's gone from baseball now -- ask Melky.
It's funny that you have no problem saying that Trout's output is so prodigious that it's "highly, highly, highly, ridiculously, massively, earth-ending-in-2012-likely, crazily, idiotically likely that Zunino will not have a single season in his career where he is as good as Mike Trout" -- but you can't, on the other hand, conceive the possibility that Trout's mind-boggling performance might be enhanced.
Mike Trout put up amazing minor league numbers as a 17 year old, as an 18 year old, as a 19 year old, and as a 20 year old. To say that the month and a half he struggled as a 19 year old in the major leagues and then his breakout as a 20 year old leads to PED suspicion is silly.
Headlines! Young Amazing Talent Develops! Must Be PEDs Like Pujols!
Do you ever NOT go for the absolute, one-sided, hyperbolic statement?
Is Mike Trout's phenomenal success against big-league pitching less remarkable than Melky's one-year outburst?
Trout has an OPS over .900 against the three top pitching staffs in the AL -- the Yankees, the Tigers, and the Rays. He's not just having incredible success, he's mashing against the most successful pitchers in baseball. Against the number four staff, the Rangers, his OPS is 1.158. Between last year and this year, his ISO went from .171 to .262, and even his speed score went up from 6.0 to 8.8.
Sorry if I'm jaded after repeated denials in ML baseball and subsequent revelations of juicing, year after year. At this point, it seems like willful blindness to dismiss red flags out of hand because we don't want another scandal. I haven't said the kid is juicing -- I'm saying his spectacular success at his age against elite major-league pitchers warrants enough suspicion that he should be tested. If you think the prospect of a hundred-million-dollar career isn't enough temptation for a young athlete to consider an illegal edge, I'd like to know what you'd consider a sufficient temptation.
Why do you object to his being tested? Don't you want to know?
Just some stats according to "Baseball Cube". I'm not arguing whether or not Zunino is better than Trout. Zunino is only in the Minors, however for what is he doing so far "he should project to be a decent catcher/hitter when he comes up" that is all I'm saying.
Additionally...this is not suggesting in any way that he’s better or on par with the other 5 players in the list who are or have been good MLB players. Zunino’s scouting only covers Pre-Minor League to Minor League stats.
All this shows according to Baseball Cube is the Scouting Rating derived from overall stats, what level of talent played and other factors.
You can read it below at.http://www.thebaseballcube.com/about/scouting.asp
The following list indicates the factors included in each scouting category:
BATTING- Takes into account batting average compared to his peers.
CONTACT- Compares strikeouts against a player's plate appearances.
PATIENCE- Simply the number of walks compared to at bats.
POWER- Takes into account extra-base hits against balls put into play with extra weight given to homers while doubles and triples are treated equally owing to the assumption that a triple is a double with better circumstances.
SPEED- stolen bases as compared to the number of times a player reached first base, not considering caught stealing.
Speed Contact Patience Batting PowerA-Rod 64 36 70 84 92Bonds 65 69 95 74 95Griffey 44 48 74 64 87Posey 31 81 72 94 68Trout 91 76 82 92 56 Zunino 35 50 67 97 99
Keep in mind Zunino's number could increase or decrease in certain categories depending on his development and barring injury etc...
Trout has established himself as a All-Star Caliber MLB player. What his long term success holds remain to be seen. Barring injury or some other setback we can assume at worst he will remain an above average player at the minimum. I expect his numbers could possibly drop in a future season as early as 2013. By that time all or most AL teams should already develop a decent scouting report and the various league pitchers adjust to him. This is to be expected with most MLB Players and how quickly he adjusts can make him a better player.
Mike Trout Profile-Drafted out of High School “ All American”4 Seasons/ 2 years Minor League service timeMLB- Played ½ season July-Sept 2011, Full Season 2012
A Cedar Rapids-G AB PA R H HR RBI AVE OBP SLG OPS 5 15 20 1 4 0 0 .267 .421 .267 .688- (2009 Season) 81 312 368 76 113 7 39 .362 .454 .526 .979- (2010 Season)AA Arkansas-G AB PA R H HR RBI AVE OBP SLG OPS 91 353 412 82 115 11 38 .326 .414 .544 .958- (2011 Season)Total Minor League stats; AZL Angels-AAA Salt Lake G AB PA R H HR RBI AVE OBP SLG OPS 286 1117 1307 239 382 23 134 .342 .426 .516 .941- (2009-2012)
If you’ve been following Mike Zunino his resume is well known. He has racked in numerous national level awards, been to the College World Series, and transitioned to NCAA sanctioned BBCOR Bats in the 2011 season. They have the same pop and development as switching to wood baseball bats. Various analysts, scouts, and baseball writers project with his experience and maturity/development level he will probably be the 1st in his draft class to reach the majors.
His stint in Everett was short and the level of competition in the NWL was believed to be weaker than the competition at the SEC when he was in Florida St. He then was promoted 3 levels from A- past A and A+ to AA where he will encounter more of a challenge with the pitchers in the Southern League breaking balls etc..
At Everett he hit safely in most games in his short month. At Jackson he didn’t really hit his 1st two games. After that he hit safely in every game so far, hit 2 HR’s in 2 days consecutive.
Mike Zunino Profile-3 Years College ball Florida Gators SEC Conference1 Season/0 years Minor League service timeMLB Experience-0
Florida St totals.-G AB PA R H HR RBI AVE OBP SLG OPS 193 685 793 159 224 47 175 .327 .393 .620 1.013 (2010-2012) A- Everett-G AB PA R H HR RBI AVE OBP SLG OPS 29 110 133 29 41 10 35 .373 .474 .736 1.210 (2012 Season)AA Jackson-G AB PA R H HR RBI AVE OBP SLG OPS 6 19 21 4 8 2 3 .421 .522 .842 1.364 (2012 Season)Totals-G AB PA R H HR RBI AVE OBP SLG OPS 35 129 154 33 49 12 38 .380 .481 .752 1.233 (2012 Season)
There’s a lot to be excited about with his ability as a catcher. I’ve heard comparisons with Buster Posey, Dan Wilson etc… I could see a Buster Posey style with Zunino comparing both Posey and Zunino’s numbers Zunino’s seems to have more power hitting abilities than Posey. I don’t believe Zunino will spend 4 years in the minors like Trout and Posey. The reason is he seems more developed of a player then when the other 2 started the minors.
I expect that GMZ will keep him at AA the rest of the season, play some winter ball followed by AA/AAA starting 2013 season. Who knows maybe an invite to ST to look at him. Unless an injury or setback there’s no reason he can’t make a Sept 2013 cup of coffee or start the 2014 season with SEA.
The bottom line is on paper he looks good right now and the future is looking bright if he continues doing good things.