"...We're talking about a player that is being projected to be non-tendered after the 2012 season if he's still with the organization that long..."
-- I really don't understand your perspective here. First off, who is projecting Lannan to be a non-tender after the season? That makes very little sense to me. Very very little. Both Jackson AND Wang are FAs next season, and if both go, Lannan would seem to be in line to go back into the rotation. And if either Jackson or Wang were to return, they'd require both a higher annual salary AND a longer term commitment than Lannan is going to get in arbitration.
"...He's 7th on the rotation depth chart and he's the 2nd-highest paid starter in the organization for 2012 (Edwin Jackson is the highest).
-- Lannan is a very serviceable starting pitcher at a reasonable salary on a team with a lot of depth currently at SP. Just because the Nationals' rotation is in great shape in terms of cost AND depth doesn't mean that every team's is, and that there wouldn't be demand for him.
"...No one wants to pay a guy $5m to be a 5th starter, even the Red Sox..."
-- Right off the top of my head, I can think of 6 or 7 teams who currently pay their 5th starter more than $5 million annually. The Giants, Dodgers, D-Backs, Phillies, Cardinals, and Marlins all have 5th starters making over $5 million in the NL alone. And humorously you mention the Red Sox, who are currently paying their 5th starter, Dice-K, who is on the DL, $10 million, and that excludes the amortization of the posting fee, which adds another $8.5 million to his annual cost. The Twins pay Nick Blackburn $4.75 million. Of the 8 teams mentioned, Lannan is probably better than 7 of the 8 5th starters, including Blackburn. Only Sanchez in Miami would I say is better.
I do agree he won't bring a TOP prospect in return in a trade, but he's definitely got value. An argument can be made that Lannan is better today than all 5 starters on both the Rockies and the Orioles.
Well, while there are more SP than Lannan stashed away. Unfortunaly, they are on the DL and not just riding a bus to games. ;~)
GO NATS !!!
The numbers dictate he will be non tendered by whatever team wind sup with him. Then he will be signed for 2-3 M
It is a lot easier to predict this than oh say.....rendon is a MLB caliber middle infielder
>>"I really don't understand your perspective here. First off, who is projecting Lannan to be a non-tender after the season? That makes very little sense to me. Very very little. Both Jackson AND Wang are FAs next season, and if both go, Lannan would seem to be in line to go back into the rotation."
It makes perfect sense, as Rich as already laid-out. At least one of the Nats beat writers said the exact same thing within the last week. There is virtually no chance that he doesn't get non-tendered by whatever organization owns his rights at the end of this season. If it's still the Nats, he will be non-tendered and then signed by someone else for whatever the market is for a soft-tossing lefty who can't go deep into games but who is reliable enough to be a 5th starter and is very durable. If he's been dealt to another team, he'll still be non-tendered and perhaps re-signed by that same team for much less, especially if it's a team that needed him enough to trade for him and he performs well there. Even so, he won't be worth what the arbitration process will pay him, hence the non-tender.
Assuming Edwin Jackson and C.M. Wang both leave after this season, that still doesn't open-up a spot for Lannan. Detwiler will have one of those spots and the team will look to fill the last spot from within, if possible, with a pitcher who is much younger, much cheaper, and has a much higher ceiling than Lannan. If one of the kids isn't ready, Rizzo won't have a problem grabbing another higher-end pitcher on a one year deal again, just like Jackson this year, and as strong as the Nats should be by next year, they shouldn't have a problem finding a pitcher hoping to get a one year contract with some post-season success at the end of it that he can immediately flip into a big payday.
In the Nats ideal scenario, Matt Purke or Alex Meyer will blaze through the system this year and be given a chance at the 5th spot next year. This is where Rich will scream that they will never be ready that soon, but those two weren't high schoolers last season, they've been pitching at TCU and Kentucky, respectively. Purke will be 22 in July and Meyer has been 22 since January. Purke is being fast-tracked a little more than Meyer, but Meyer, who was sent to Low Single-A ball in Hagerstown, looks to have been sent a level too low if his first start for the Suns is any indication, because he was overwhelming. If he keeps that up, he might be in Potomac by May. He'll be 23 before Spring Training next season, that's not too young for a pitcher taken in the first round to make his ascent to the Majors if he keeps mowing-down hitters without walking anybody, but if they aren't ready, just refer to the last line of the previous paragraph.
I'm gonna go off topic for a second Eric and could use your expertise on Fenway Park if you have the time and don't mind me hijacking your thread for a moment. I'm treating my brother to the Red Sox series at Fenway for his 60th birthday and would greatly appreciate any recommendations as far as seating at the Park, restaurants, hotels within walking distance, and any other attractions you think we might enjoy on our trip.
This is a trip my brother and have talked about doing for years and have always put aside saying ,"we'll do it next year". Well having lost a best friend and a precious sister this past year, "we'll do it next year" is not an option any longer.
Any help would be appreciated.
Regarding Fenway Park, if you're not 6' tall and not overweight, I'd recommend the infield grandstand seats (the historic blue wooden ones) because they're under the overhang, which is useful if it rains. They're $55 each. Just remember that Sections 32 and 33 are non-alcoholic. If you're willing to splurge, go for the Infield Loge seats, which are $99 each.
Hotel-wise near Fenway, I'd suggest either the Back Bay (Sheraton, Hilton, Marriott, Westin and Colonnade) or Brookline's Coolidge Corner (Holiday Inn and Courtyard by Marriott, or the Beacon Inn) would work. On a nice day/night you can walk, or take the "T" a couple of stops to Fenway.
As for restaurants, I'm a big fan of Zaftig's (NY-style deli), Rami's (Israeli-owned falafel shop) and Shawarma King (Lebanese) in Coolidge Corner.
With 2 SPs on innings counts and another coming off injury I think its quite premature to trade Lannan.
He's a proven big leaguer pitcher who will most likely come in handy before the season is over. Like the saying goes, one can never have enough pitching.
>>"Regarding Fenway Park, if you're not 6' tall and not overweight, I'd recommend......."
Thanks for your time Eric. Your advice will be utilized.
With my wide frame at 6'4" tall, i sure am glad you said something about it.
Thanks again for your time and help. :)
"In the Nats ideal scenario, Matt Purke or Alex Meyer will blaze through the system "
Do they have blazing fast balls? Rizzo/Johnson had no respect for Milone's WHIP, probably because he topped out at 92. Based on that I think they will deal control pitchers.
and not overweight,"
as in not overweight by 1912 definitions?