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    • Top prospect = Future Star?
Message 548109.7 was deleted
  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89

i also dont get how murphy and tejada are holes. murphy is a solid hitter and tejada well we don't know what we have with him but he has amazing defense. either way there is no way to judge tejada at this point in his career so thats not a hole.

and 4 starters after niese? harvey is a hole? oh ok. gee is far from a hole. hes a solid back end of the rotation pitcher. and santana is a question mark so again to use that as a hole is stupid when you just simply don't know. also dont get how marcum is considered a hole.

you just completely make things up


Edited 2/5/13   by  metsfansince89
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • Melo15nym

So what the heck is your point? OBVIOUSLY, not every prospect isn't going to live up to their potential. That is why you need to stockpile.

What is your great plan?

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • Melo15nym

"I saw Nimmo...if you think he can play, think again."

Hahahahah every scout raved about Nimmo last year but you say he can't play? Thanks genius. What team do you work for?

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Message 548109.11 was deleted
  • 2/5/13
  • jgrangers2

Delve deeper into that list and here's what you find:

11. Tim Lincecum
13. Andrew McCutchen
14. Jay Bruce
15. Troy Tulowitzki
16. Yovani Gallardo
18. Carlos Gonzalez
21. Matt Garza
24. Clayton Kershaw
25. Billy Butler
26. Ryan Braun
28. Adam Jones
33. Jacoby Ellsbury
38. Hunter Pence
43. Joey Votto

I could keep going, but you get the point. Nobody is trying to convince you that every prospect becomes a star. What we're pointing out is that a very high percentage of stars appear on these lists at one point or another.

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • Gepett0

and w/ that, im done

if you think tda harvey and wheeler are holes, then you're beyond stupid and there is no reason to continue this conversation

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89

what it pretty much comes down to is if you have a top 50 prospect you have about a 40-50% chance of him being a solid MLB player and we got two in that spot. we had 3 back in 07 ( i think) and they all were busts but that was under omar.

another thing is that they aren't even our prospects. they are from other teams which makes me feel they will pan out even more


Edited 2/5/13   by  metsfansince89
Edited 2/5/13   by  metsfansince89
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • viper99
No A-roid?
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • bbjmparis
Like #22?
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89
yes like i said, about half will be busts and half will turn in to something. we happened to be on the wrong end of it every time with our guys. we have a new GM now so we'll see how he does
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • bbjmparis

By the way...the point was that just because someone is a TOP prospect, it doesn't nean you're going to be a star. If those LESSER prospects turned out to be the better players, what does that say about being a TOP prospect? It says, that the scouts are often wrong, that it's all gueswork and opinion, and doesn't mean that much. So why gush over a top prospect if #?? may well be better?

Then, there is the Immortal #22

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89
it works both ways. you can't say these guys are sure things and will pan out but you also can't say they are going to be busts either. thats why you have to wait and see. nobody is saying these guys are 100% sure things. we are just staying optimistic because we have a bunch of guys that are highly regarded throughout baseball. that gives us a lot of hope
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • _BigNick

Fails:

1. Looking at one year.
2. Calling Longoria "good."
3. Defining players by whether they're HOFers. Is Dickey a HOFer? No. I hope you aren't complaining that he was traded.
4. You don't know the definition of "average" in baseball.

Here's an actual study, and while it is not end-all and does not include anything, it makes your methods look absolutely ludicrous.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects


"
About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.
Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.
About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.
About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.
About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%)
About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)
The success rate of prospects (both position player and pitchers) is nearly flat and relatively undifferentiated for players ranked 41-100, and especially those ranked 61-100.
Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars. Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars.
Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past.
"

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543845/Prospect_Success_by_Position_medium.png
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543833/Quintile_Pos_Player_Table_medium.png
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543809/Decile_Pos_Players_Table2_medium.png

<Now fuck off.

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • govmule72

I do agree in the sense that we stunk when we had all those players too. There are legitimate things to complain about with this team and how it is run, but saying we should have all the old players as if that was the problem is not one of them.

It just wasn't going to work.

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • _BigNick
"y the way...the point was that just because someone is a TOP prospect, it doesn't nean you're going to be a star. "
Thanks captain obvious. That's why baseball is probabilities and not certainties.

"? It says, that the scouts are often wrong, that it's all gueswork and opinion, and doesn't mean that much"
No. It says your stupid and don't know what any of the things you're talking about mean.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • govmule72

"i also dont get how murphy and tejada are holes. murphy is a solid hitter and tejada well we don't know what we have with him but he has amazing defense. either way there is no way to judge tejada at this point in his career so thats not a hole."

They are not holes. As for Murphy's fielding, it's not like the guy is costing us a bunch of games out there. It's worth the steady bat in the order.

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Message 548109.24 was deleted
  • 2/5/13
  • govmule72

"what it pretty much comes down to is if you have a top 50 prospect you have about a 40-50% chance of him being a solid MLB player and we got two in that spot. we had 3 back in 07 ( i think) and they all were busts but that was under omar."

Actually, we have 3 right now.

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • govmule72

"By the way...the point was that just because someone is a TOP prospect, it doesn't nean you're going to be a star. If those LESSER prospects turned out to be the better players, what does that say about being a TOP prospect?"

You do realize players move in and out of the top spots, right?

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