Seriously though, and I (along with you) was one of the biggest supporters in trading Dickey, because I thought we were rebuilding. But it seems that move was the ONLY one we made towards the re-build.
Several more could have and should have been made if we truly are re-building.
My biggest concern with Niese is prior to last year he had been hurt by a much higher than average Opponents Batting Average on Balls in Play. Coming into last season it was .333, but last year it dropped 60 points to .272.
All his other peripherals were nearly identical and a couple, HR rate went up and K rate went down, were worse than 2011.
I think his numbers should fall somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 performance.
I assume you are referring to Wright as part of the "total rebuild" right? I have mixed feelings about him potentially being part of a total rebuild...but I guess it would depend on what the return was. I feel that the Mets needed to sign Wright either way....they needed a true MET...a true franchise player. He is also young enough to help now AND be a part of the future. We need a defined core and I think we are building a nice one so far with Wrigh, Ike, Niese, Harvey, and D'Arnaud. You can add in Murphy and Tejada to that mix as well.
Now, if Wright were to bring in a package of Profar+Olt+Perez, then I'd seriously consider it.
Yeah, definitely Wright. trading him alone could have added many players. But I also understand the need and desire to keep him.
But, just to stay with the player of topic, Niese's value may be higher right now than it ever will be, and could have netted us a nice return. I understand that he is a young lefty starter, and those aren't easy to acquire, but again, I'm not convinved that Niese will be as good as he was in 2012.
the problem isnt just that lefties are hard to acquire ....its that our system is barren in terms of LHP prospects
i mean youve got edgin & carson, two relievers, darin gorski, a fringe #6 starter most likely, and steven matz, a guy so far away from the bigs and w/ so many injury concerns that id only give him about a 15% chance of ever even making the bigs, let alone excelling in them (though man is his stuff nasty)....there just is no body that we could replace him w/ and then you are potentially looking at a pretty much right handed rotation for the foreseeable future, which i really dont like
If I am trading Niese, I would only do it for 3+ TOP prospects. Some people may laugh at that and say he is a #3 at best and that is way too much to pay for Niese. Here are the reasons why Niese would be VERY valuable to ANY club:
-Young-Cheap-Under long term control-Left handed (quality young LH pitching is a rarity)-He has shown he can be more consistent
Probably missing something else too...but whatever.
A pitcher like Niese isn't a dime a dozen. I think he will get better and want to keep him...but would also consider trading him for the RIGHT package. An example package would be Olt+Perez+Buckel from Texas.
>I think his numbers should fall somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 performance.
Totally agree with you on this
>>If I am trading Niese, I would only do it for 3+ TOP prospects<<
I hear ya man, but if for example the D-Backs offered Eaton and Pollock, I'm doing it.
im not a big believer in babip for young pitchers
part of the reason that his babip was higher before was location....he often left pitches down the middle of the plate...when you rip something, of course it has a better rate of producing a hit then when you make soft contact...that is why it is silly to predict regression to a norm when tht norm is based on numbers put up before his 25th birthday...his location improved so there was less hard contact against him so his numbers got better...its not really that complicated
im not saying that there is no value to babip when you are talking about a guy who is in the middle or even tail end of peak and you have a large body of data at hand but when you are talking about young players who are still learning and adjusting to the league projections are more guess work and scouting than statistical science