Zunino's chances at going first overall do seem to have been diminishing a bit lately.========
I don't see why. He rates pretty high in the college boards and the most recent scouting report on Bullpen Banter talked about him squaring and hitting the ball hard, he just is hitting the ball right at people.
The appeal of Appel can be traced to what he would bring to the team in advertising as much as what he would bring to the field. Home town boy, great school, coming home to hit the big time. He could be the poster boy for the next 10-15 years if he excels.
The problem though is making the judgement on how well he actually will work out. I am still firmly in the Zunino camp.
"The appeal of Appel can be traced to what he would bring to the team in advertising as much as what he would bring to the field. Home town boy, great school, coming home to hit the big time. He could be the poster boy for the next 10-15 years if he excels."
That's what I'm afraid of. Jim Crane might value the marketability of taking the hometown player over the most talented player. Given that there's no consensus #1 pick among the bunch, I could see that scenario potentially coming to pass.
I would be shocked and disappointed if Appel is the pick. If they want to pick an arm first overall, it seems like there are much better choices.
"I would be shocked and disappointed if Appel is the pick."
I wouldn't be shocked, but I would definitely be disappointed.
ESPN's weekly draft rundown is titled "Appel still flirting with number 1 status" and I think that's the perfect way to say it. He's kept his name in the discussion all year and that's why I think he might end up being our pick instead of some better choices. I'm still hoping for Buxton but I'm not sure it's going to happen.
Here's the highlights from the article:
"Appel, however, continues to tease scouts with big velocity and signs of improved command and offspeed stuff. The 6-foot-5, 215- pounder went seven strong innings Friday night at UCLA, allowing eight hits and an earned run. He did not walk a batter and struck out 10. For the year, Appel is 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 81-20 K/BB ratio in 79 innings of work."
"He's the [Gerrit] Cole of this draft," said one scouting supervisor. "You have to look down the road a little bit more than you'd like," on a college pitcher, "but the raw ability is there and he's learning to pitch this year." There are times when Appel looks the part of a No. 1 pick and others when he appears to be quite the risk in the top half of the top 10.
"Generally, clubs drafting No. 1 overall prefer to select a player with immense upside. Zunino is the No. 2 player on Law's latest top 50, but might lack the tools for superstar performances at the big-league level. It's also worth noting that a college catcher has been selected No. 1 overall just three times in the draft's 47-year history, not counting 2010 top pick Bryce Harper, who was a 17-year-old playing at a junior college."
"Louisiana State ace Kevin Gausman, who at age 21 is a draft-eligible sophomore, failed to wow scouts Friday night versus Georgia, but his final stat line is deceiving. He went six frames and yielded three runs on 10 hits -- all of the hits were singles and four were of the infield variety. Gausman whiffed nine and did not walk a batter but did battle with his command and control and needed 120 pitches to get 18 outs. Gausman is 7-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 97-20 K/BB ratio in 75 innings. He has thrown two shutouts and surrendered just one long ball, but his 10 wild pitches and a fastball that is at times true and flat could keep him out of the top five."
"Zunino, whose season numbers are still very good and versus the always-tough SEC, went hitless in four at-bats Friday but went 5-for-8 Saturday and Sunday and is now batting .335 with a .389 on-base percentage and .659 slugging percentage. Zunino has tallied 18 doubles and 12 long balls and is a likely top five pick. If he happens to slip past Seattle at No. 3, the Chicago Cubs at No. 6 might be as far as Zunino reaches."
I think it may come down to an ego trip for the scouts and coaches. Basically, if they think they can teach -- unlike his College coaches -- Appel to be as good as they think his stuff is.
Yeah, like the article said that's simialr to Cole last year. He had the best "stuff" in the draft, but he got hit around more than a guy with his stuff should get hit around. The difference between them is Cole got the strikeouts that Appel isn't getting but Appel hasn't been hit around like Cole was.
Also, Cole's strikeouts dropped from his soph year to junior year. Appel's junior stat line actually might be better than Cole's was. He finished his junior year with:
3.31 ERA, 114.1 innings, 24 walks, 119 k's
Mayo's new top 100 players:
He has Buxton, Appel, Zunino, and Gausman as his top 4 and I think he's right, I think our pick will be one of those 4.
It wouldn't shock me if he still went top 10 if the throws before the draft and a team is still willing to pay him top 5 money. I think he has all the leverage because he supposedly has no problem going to pitch at UCLA, so teams will probably already know what it will take to sign him. Seems pretty risky to me for the price it will cost, because of the new CBA if they go over slot for him they will have less money for their other picks.
I think Mayo is right on from what I've read I think the top 6 picks in some order will be: Buxton, Zunino, Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, and Correa. After that it's anyone's guess.
BA is having their weekly draft chat right now. http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1335973158
John Manuel thinks Houston will end up picking Buxton in June:
Joel (KCK): It's starting to look more and more like Gausman will be the first college pitcher taken this year. Do you think he ends up going 1.1 to the Astros if they decide against Buxton?
John Manuel: If I were drafting -- and Astros fans should be glad I'm not -- and I wanted a college RHP this year, I'd go for Gausman. Nothing against Appel or Zimmer or Wacha, but I think Gausman has the best combination of size, stuff, projection ... the breaking ball has been there in the past, it should be at least an average pitch, and his fastball and change could both be plus down the line. I do believe, though, that the gap between Buxton and the rest of the class is significant enough that the Astros are going to wind up going Buxton unless one of those college RHPs separates himself from the pack in the next month.
Here's a local news story about Buxton: http://www2.wsav.com/sports/2012/may/02/applings-buxton-looks-forward-mlb-draft-ar-3713094/
In it they say Luhnow personally scouted him this weeked, it's good to know we're giving a hard look at him.
"In it they say Luhnow personally scouted him this weeked, it's good to know we're giving a hard look at him."
It's a bit of a relief to read that. I'm glad they're doing their due diligence on him.
Please God, no pitchers.
I'd rather have Zunino, but I'll gladly take Buxton over any arm out there.