You need to calm down.
Here's what you said:
"hinsky, wells, wallace just off the top of my head."
"Those guys never had the rep of Lawrie."
How exactly am I putting words in your mouth?
I think Lawrie's gonna be awesome too.
Vanland.. Did you take take my invitation to join the dark side?
your opinion on Lawrie mirrors mine.. maybe you should start worrying:)
as far as Dr.Dingers list.. I could give a longer list of Top 10 prospects busts.. I was looking though because Noxage said it was obvious that Top 10 SP prospects are less likely to succeed than positional ones. I did not find this to be accurate..
.. on side note, I was suprised to see Alex Gonzalez ranked #4 by BA in 1994. I didnt remember him on Delgado level as a prospect.. or even Shawn Green
Not all #4 prospects are created equal. For one thing, people tend to forget that BA wasn't nearly as well-established or staffed back then.
But more importantly, there are weak prospect classes and strong prospect classes, just like there are weak and strong drafts.
I wasnt comparing Lawrie to AG.. was just genuinely suprised.. I forgot AG was so highly though of. He made list at #27, #4, and #8 from 03-05.. so he wasnt flash in pan.. I sincerely didnt remember that..
when I was looking.. I started more recently.. I was looking at SP vs. position players and didnt find the "obvious" trend that position players are the safer bet.. I found opposite to be true by %.. but career changing injury rates are higher with P as could be expected.. hence, not calling Prior, Wood, or even a Kazmir a bust..
Yes, I'm just illustrating a previous point that Lawrie =/= Gonzalez =/= Wells, etc etc. Just because Wells was rated #4 one year doesn't mean he was nearly as well rated as Lawrie is now.
Anyway, I think studies have shown that the attrition rate for pitchers is much higher than position players. Noxage is probably typing a novel right now on the subject.
"I was looking though because Noxage said it was obvious that Top 10 SP prospects are less likely to succeed than positional ones. I did not find this to be accurate.."
Just look at Victor Wang's work and the plethora of interpretations of it.
Here's one summary:
Surplus value providedTop 10 hitting prospects $36.5MTop 11-25 hitters $25.1Top 26-50 hitters $23.4Top 51-75 hitters $14.2Top 76-100 hitters $12.5Top 10 pitching prospects $15.2Top 11-25 pitchers $15.9Top 26-50 pitchers $15.9Top 51-75 pitchers $12.1Top 76-100 pitchers $9.8
When Gonzalez was #4.. you had:
1. Cliff Floyd, 1b, Expos2. Chipper Jones, ss, Braves3. Jeffrey Hammonds, of, Orioles4. Alex Gonzalez, ss, Blue Jays5. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays6. Alex Rodriguez, ss, Mariners7. Manny Ramirez, of, Indians
as I said.. I put it to the simple test of taking Top 10 lists going back from 2007 about 15 years.. and I found % of SP being complete busts was less than position guys.. one thing I didnt dock for was career changing injuries.. I didnt label them busts but your list kind of does by default... guess it should count..
I would have assumed the injury thing was part of deal with a guy like Feliz or JT. I stand by the thinking that if you throw 95+, have 4 pitches you can throw for strikes, and show control through the minors.. I feel safer with that than guessing if a guy is going to hit major league pitching..
but you're always a TJ or shoulder surgery away from it going other way
"one thing I didnt dock for was career changing injuries"
I assume this is the main reason for vast discrepancy in projected value. Intuitively (and I don't have data to back this statement up) it seems to me that the prospect sites do an equally good job evaluating talent levels of pitchers and position players but fail to properly account for the attrition rates of pitchers.
When we're talking about the projected value (trade value) of a young asset, this significant risk absolutely needs to be a part of the discussion. It's the main reason I have Moore behind Harper, Trout and Lawrie in terms of overall value.
Well, at least BJay and Dinger are capable of a civilized argument. :)
(Wish we could say the same re the horror show that is Gibbers vs. Lee_Marvin)