There's two problems going on here. First, stop listening to Baker. He has no say on Chapman. He only controls how players on the 25 man are used. The other problem is wannabe GM's with fantasy mindsets.
The question is not will AC make the rotation. The question is, if he does, what do you do with Bailey? And that answer is not to trade Homer or put him in the BP. We are already thin at SP and he's not needed in the pen. Neither will AC be going to the pen, if he can take Walt at his word. It would take a complete BP meltdown for that to happen. Instead, that's the strongest part of our game. He's not needed there either. He's needed right where he's going to be, in Louisville, making THEIR rotation.
I have been impressed enough this spring with Chapman to say writing him off for the whole season may have been too harsh. We'll know better when he starts cranking 6/7 innings in AAA and is not getting beat up after twice through the line ups. He was after all a SP for Cooba. He will be needed at some point to start again. I agree with Felter that he won't be the first line of defense for an injury, especially early. It will be Frances.
I also agree with Arroyo being overrated. Funny, how the last year of a contract, many players rise to the top. Too often, our ownership bases a new contract on that one year of 'hope and change' when realistically it is more likely an aberration. It happened with BP's 30/30 year, with Votto's MVP year, and maybe BP's fine 2011. But instead of peak performances, these singular outlier years are seen as trends. Ownership should be looking at the recent body of work. In 2010, Arroyo was a top 5 overall SP in the NL and the basis for his current bloated contract. That year was not repeatable. The good news, is we don't need him to be an ace. We need him to be a consistent innings eating #4 SP for us with an ERA at or just under 4.0. He should then win about half his games. Just a 12-12 or thereabouts Arroyo year works for me.
Of course, that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.