but you wouldn't want any of cashner and erlin or whoever else is ready in our rotation?

Richrd plus volquez plus 3 more fills out the whole rotation and leaves no room for our people who are rehabbing now.

Keep the injury formula in the equation for next season. The Padres wont get caught short handed next season.

It's not just a win percentage gap. We also have had a better run differential on the road. We are the only team in baseball over the last 8 years who have scored more runs than we gave up on the road while giving up more than we've scored at home. This at the very least proves that Petco has not given us an advantage. The gap simply shows how much better a team plays at home than on the road. A team like Phillies is a good example of what you're talking about. They win everywhere. The Padres are not a good example of that.

Richard and Volquez should be 4 and 5. I would be perfectly ok with them being pushed back to 5 and 6. As far as Erin and Cashner are concerned: Erlin just lost an entire developmental season to injury and will need some time before he is ready and Cashner has gone on the disabled list following both of his MLB starts. Their entire staff including the bullpen is a total and absolute wreck. Until they fix that, everything else is just rearranging deck chairs.

Don't worry about pitching in 2013. Erlin and Cashner are just 2 people. I've been repeatedly told that the Padres have the #1 farm system in MLB. Others (to be named in the future) will cure our dismal pitching problem.

For Giles, 2004 & 2006 are the years I was thinking of.

Excellent point on the Ohlendorfs, pitchers this bad are going to get lit up even in petco, there is a basic talent level required. The basic idea is you can get less than stellar (but not pathetic) pitchers who will produce in our park - and use the money you save on them to acquire hitting.

"The key is to put a quality team on the field in all aspects of the game. Same as it ever was."

Back to reality - we have a budget thats ~50% of our competitors, so you have to decide where you're going to sacrifice. The padres approach has consistently been, sacrifice hitting, look to pitching and defense. This is a horrible approach for fan experience and further skews the Park - by purposely fielding teams built to prevent run scoring.

Reality is we need to draft and develop better. The Rays have done it in the AL East, no reason we have to sacrifice to do it in the NL West.

Even the "experts" can't seem to figure it out.

Taking the 8 year average is meaningless, it's like taking 4 apples and 4 lemons - and then saying on average, we have a lemon.

Look at what actually happened, including the Padres offensive stats in petco

2004- 2008, Padres payroll in the 65 - 75M range:

.246/.322/.379, overall WP: 0.504, home WP: 0.526, road WP: 0.483

All very reasonable numbers, 3 postseasons

2009 - 2011, payroll < 60M :

.227/0.310/.345, overall WP: 0.487, home WP: 0.504, road WP: 0.469

All horrible numbers, 0 postseasons

There is an extremely obvious correlation here, more money = better team, all the while the park stayed the same (besides the fences that were already moved in).

The rays were so unbelievably terrible they didn't have any choice but to get good players with their high draft choices..

BJ Upton 2nd overall pick in 2002 draft, Delmon Young 1st pick overall in 2003, Jeff Nieman 4th pick overall in 2004, Evan Longoria 3rd pick overall in 2006, David Price first pick overall in 2007,they did miss with Tim Beckham in 2008 first overall pick...

They even drafted Matt Moore in the 8th round in 2007.

Point is they drafted the right guys when they had high picks but since they've been winning and had lower draft picks their drafts have been fairly unimpressive. Drafts and development go hand in hand, you can't develop without talent. This was the difference between us and the Rays they actually drafted the right guys..

what do the opponents numbers look like in the same timeframes

I don't buy the Rays model, be terrible for so long that you eventually draft enough players. The Rays and us will be very similar in the coming years, the Giants and Dogs are becoming the Yanks/Red Sox west.

The question is, can we get payroll back into a reasonable range so that we can compete. The Rays can't do that, mainly because they were so terrible for so long that there is no fan support, and they will eventually crumble for it - and start drafting at the top again.

Also, I've posted this before but the dimensions of the park aren't too extreme except RF and CF but since the HOT @ss weather the ball has been flying out here... Begs the question should we play more afternoon games, the issue would be with the foxsports and the money lost.

Therefore, if we are playing a lot of games at night with the marine layer in play, the fences need to be moved in.

yeah I was going to make a similar point with the added note that the fans endured 10 years of last place teams to get those high draft choices and during part of that period we were finishing at or near the top of our division..

yeah when I said "This was the difference between us and the Rays they actually drafted the right guys.."

I meant This was the difference between us and the Rays they actually drafted the right guys when they had the high draft choices lol

I have pulled some of the road numbers, I'll try and get them together.

8 RPG is a very reasonable number, but when you look at these, we see some very good pitching in years, and some very bad offense in others, need to update for last year

......Pads RPG / Vis. RPG
2004 4.06 / 4.22
2005 3.80 / 3.93
2006 3.89 / 4.16
2007 3.99 / 3.43
2008 3.57 / 4.10
2009 3.43 / 3.96
2010 3.98 / 3.23

The fluctuations in 2007 - 2010 are definitely extreme, 1/2 RPG drop by one side or the other - depending on the pitching.

Take Minnesota then. A team can be competitive if they draft and develop well.

Right, and that completely invalidates the idea we can do a better job of drafting and developing, which is the point while the Rays are merely an analogy. Sheesh!

YAWN.. same circular arguments for 4 years.. awesome... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I agree Minnesota has done a good job of drafting, developing, and staying competitive in the meantime. The focus, IMO, should be on the big club. Drafting and developing are not a valid strategy to a successful team, they're a fundental requirement for every team.