"He hit three to RF in just 30 ABs there last year and you doubt that he could hit more than 2 more of them if he played there the rest of his career? I have to disagree."
I said short porch..... To be precise. RF encompasses Right Center. The Short porch area is not where 2 of those HR landed. Maybe I was a a little low in my projection but I can't see more than one or two a season tops.
"With that being said, I agree with you. He would have a lot more than 5 YS assisted HR's for his career, playing his entire career as a Yankee. "
How often do you see a RH hitter hit a HR within 20 feet of the RF foul pole? It doesn't happen that often. I personally don't think Right center is that homer happy at YS but straight away right and down the line totally different story. Few RH hitters have the power and the loft to consistently hit them out to straight away right. Most of the time its a a line drive fading around the RF foul pole for the RH to get a YS special.
OK, but the two 400' homers were to just about straight RF, not right-center, showing he can hit the ball quite long to that spot. He can also hit HRs without quite "getting it all" to the same spot, where it's way less that 400ft to the fence. If you put up YS on "hit tracker" and look at the spot his two 400' HRs landed (three grid lines over a bit more from the 1st baseline, YS is hair under 350' in that spot. So he can he the ball a lot less well in that spot and still end up with a HR.
And the other one was a 349' HR right into short portch. That wouldn't have been out just about anywhere else. So that's already one definite "short porch" HR in just his first 30 ABs. I'm sure he wouldn't have kept up the "1 HR every 10 ABs" pace from those 30 ABs last year, but I'd have liked his chances of hitting at least 15 or so HRs just at home there next year off that if he was the full time DH. Remember, the only case I'm trying to make is that I think the HR estimate given for him in post one would be a little higher if he were playing his home games in YS instead of Safeco.
He had one 349 footer into the short porch though, so off one short porch HR in just 30 ABs I'd like his chances to have way more than 5 of them if he played his whole career there. Still, that argument aside, I think it was clear the guy has excellent power to the opposite field, which certainly would have been a positive thing in YS.
He had the short one off the RS and I remember thinking at the time that if he could keep hitting the ball in that direction there for the rest of his career I was probably going to really learn to hate him. ;)
Not to say the trade won't work out great for the Yankees. If Pinada pitches consistantly like he did in the 1st half last year, it will help the Yankees tremendously. But Montero really appeared to have a made for YS swing. Sort of like Jeter with way more power.
"You don't think Montero has the ability to consistently hit the ball out in right field?"
On more than one occasion I said his most usable power is to right center. A lot of elite RH power hitters are like that and none of them hit a lot of HR's to straight away right or down the right field line.
"OK, but the two 400' homers were to just about straight RF, not right-center"
Right center is 60-80 degree angle from home right? A few degrees difference is pretty significant right? To get those 400' HR's a few degrees to the right would mean an absolutely different contact angle? Greatly reducing the chance of barreling the ball.
"And the other one was a 349' HR right into short portch"
This is the ball I'm talking about. I don't think he hits more than 5-10 these for his career had he stayed a Yank.
"Remember, the only case I'm trying to make is that I think the HR estimate given for him in post one would be a little higher if he were playing his home "
I agree with that.
From 2002-2009, during which time FanGraphs tracked pitch-type, Johnson threw a tad under 92% fastball/slider and around 3% changeups, and 6% splitters.
The only pitch that rated as dramatically above average was his slider.