Good points you make.Let us hope that your figure of 18-6 is a good call..........J.

"He hit three to RF in just 30 ABs there last year and you doubt that he could hit more than 2 more of them if he played there the rest of his career? I have to disagree."

I said short porch..... To be precise. RF encompasses Right Center. The Short porch area is not where 2 of those HR landed. Maybe I was a a little low in my projection but I can't see more than one or two a season tops.

I think he means 5 HR's for his career that are YS aided. Obviously, two he hit at the stadium would have gone out of any park. With that being said, I agree with you. He would have a lot more than 5 YS assisted HR's for his career, playing his entire career as a Yankee.

"With that being said, I agree with you. He would have a lot more than 5 YS assisted HR's for his career, playing his entire career as a Yankee. "

How often do you see a RH hitter hit a HR within 20 feet of the RF foul pole? It doesn't happen that often. I personally don't think Right center is that homer happy at YS but straight away right and down the line totally different story. Few RH hitters have the power and the loft to consistently hit them out to straight away right. Most of the time its a a line drive fading around the RF foul pole for the RH to get a YS special.

You don't think Montero has the ability to consistently hit the ball out in right field? He hit a feew bombs that way last season. The ones he just misses at Safeco will be in the seats at Yankee Stadium.

OK, but the two 400' homers were to just about straight RF, not right-center, showing he can hit the ball quite long to that spot. He can also hit HRs without quite "getting it all" to the same spot, where it's way less that 400ft to the fence. If you put up YS on "hit tracker" and look at the spot his two 400' HRs landed (three grid lines over a bit more from the 1st baseline, YS is hair under 350' in that spot. So he can he the ball a lot less well in that spot and still end up with a HR.

And the other one was a 349' HR right into short portch. That wouldn't have been out just about anywhere else. So that's already one definite "short porch" HR in just his first 30 ABs. I'm sure he wouldn't have kept up the "1 HR every 10 ABs" pace from those 30 ABs last year, but I'd have liked his chances of hitting at least 15 or so HRs just at home there next year off that if he was the full time DH. Remember, the only case I'm trying to make is that I think the HR estimate given for him in post one would be a little higher if he were playing his home games in YS instead of Safeco.

He had one 349 footer into the short porch though, so off one short porch HR in just 30 ABs I'd like his chances to have way more than 5 of them if he played his whole career there. Still, that argument aside, I think it was clear the guy has excellent power to the opposite field, which certainly would have been a positive thing in YS.

He had the short one off the RS and I remember thinking at the time that if he could keep hitting the ball in that direction there for the rest of his career I was probably going to really learn to hate him. ;)

Not to say the trade won't work out great for the Yankees. If Pinada pitches consistantly like he did in the 1st half last year, it will help the Yankees tremendously. But Montero really appeared to have a made for YS swing. Sort of like Jeter with way more power.

Yeah, but at the spot where his two 400 ft HRs left the field the fence is only about 350. He could get way less than all of the ball hitting to that same spot and still have a HR.

I pay no attention to Bill James, his numbers are always sort of crazy......rest seem fair for the most part........

"You don't think Montero has the ability to consistently hit the ball out in right field?"

On more than one occasion I said his most usable power is to right center. A lot of elite RH power hitters are like that and none of them hit a lot of HR's to straight away right or down the right field line.

But he hit three from straight RF to the line in just 30 ABs there last year. Surely this is a good indication that he can do it.

"OK, but the two 400' homers were to just about straight RF, not right-center"

Right center is 60-80 degree angle from home right? A few degrees difference is pretty significant right? To get those 400' HR's a few degrees to the right would mean an absolutely different contact angle? Greatly reducing the chance of barreling the ball.

"And the other one was a 349' HR right into short portch"

This is the ball I'm talking about. I don't think he hits more than 5-10 these for his career had he
stayed a Yank.

"Remember, the only case I'm trying to make is that I think the HR estimate given for him in post one would be a little higher if he were playing his home "

I agree with that.

What was Randy Johnson's third pitch? Fastball... slider... and... what?

To be fair, he threw a pretty decent splitter that resulted in a lot of grounders.

From 2002-2009, during which time FanGraphs tracked pitch-type, Johnson threw a tad under 92% fastball/slider and around 3% changeups, and 6% splitters.

The only pitch that rated as dramatically above average was his slider.

ZIPS also has Jason Giambi being a better hitter than Robbie Cano this season and has Jeter and Nunez being an offensive wash with bat. Just a tad out to lunch.
It is relatively good at giving each player a "worst-case scenario" though. While there are a couple of exceptions, ZIPS will almost always be (unnecessarily) the most pessimistic of the four systems on fangraphs. Too bad CHONE isn't around anymore...

CHONE was by far my favorite........