Actually ... the numbers are his combined numbers from TWO seasons ... 2011 and 2010 ... 45 games in 2011 and 185 at bats combined with 108 games in 2010 and 406 at bats ... which ... I took to approximate one full season.
(He broke his fibula and tore all the ligaments in that leg on 5-25-11 and missed the rest of the season. His batting average was .305 in 2010 (Rookie of the Year) and .284 in 2011 as of the day he broke his leg. After ten games this season, with 36 ABs, he was hitting .361.)
I didn't SAY he (or ANYone) was "ready to start" after college!
The point was that Posey had had some three MORE years of POST-high school baseball than did Beckham ... therefore three more years of physical growth, maturity, and pro baseball-style development than Beckham had being drafted straight out of high school.
I would most definitely have drafted Posey over Beckham ... and ... today ... there are baseball insiders who have a lot of very so-so reactions to Beckham, e.g., "fringey speed", "isn't athletic enough (for shortstop)", "minimal power", "no superstar", "not a fast-tracker", "nothing really outstanding", "maybe he can't stay at shortstop in the major leagues", "doesn't have shortstop instincts", "maybe he's better suited to left-field or first base" ... etc. He doesn't have Buster Posey cred and probably never did ... and a Rays newcomer, Hak-Ju Lee, is rated higher as a shortstop.
Well ... I think it's the "end result" that determines whether or not there was a potential "blunder" involved.
Clearly, right now, as regards ROI, the Giants made a better initial first round selection in the 2008 MLB player draft than did the Rays.
And, given the Rays merry-go-round with catchers over the last three or so years ... by comparison ... the Rays would have been better off selecting Posey ... BUT ... of course ... after limited big-league action in late 2009 and a full-year in 2010 (Rookie of the Year) ... Posey missed 127 games in 2011 with a severely broken leg.
(And ... over the past four-plus seasons in the minors ... Beckham has shown NO ability to hit the ball any better than Brignac, Rodriguez and Johnson have shown while with the Rays.)
The point was that Posey had had some three MORE years of POST-high school baseball than did Beckham ... therefore three more years of physical growth, maturity, and pro baseball-style development than Beckham had being drafted straight out of high school.========
That is implying that Posey was close to ML baseball.
Still doesn't change the fact that we had a young all-star catcher in 2008 that we controlled. In 2008, Beckham was the right choice. We needed a future SS that would be ready by 2011 or 2012 because Bartlett wasn't a permanent option and the second best option in the entire organization for SS was moving Upton back to SS. We have always had a need at the SS position.
I'm not "implying" anything!
The point was pretty clearly made: ... after playing in college ... all things being equal ... Posey was CLOSER ... that's "close"-ER ... to actually getting into MLB than would be a kid just completing high school.
And ... in my opinion ... there's next to no chance that Beckham will EVER be the Rays' "long-term" answer at shortstop ... nor will he be a regular shortstop for ANY team. And ... by most scout's and insider's estimations that I've read ... he's not going to be any better of a hitter at the ML level than Brignac, Rodriguez or Johnson.
And ... if you think Upton could be an effective ML shortstop today ... then ... you're probably the only person seriously thinking that.
And ... had Navarro remained an "All Star" catcher since 2008 ... his salary would likely have risen to the point where he would have become unaffordable to the Rays by 2012 ... as Crawford did and Pena did at the end of 2010 ... and as Shields very likely will at the end of this season ... so ... teams are probably looking AT LEAST four-to-five years ahead with most of their first-round draftees. (?)
Remember Beckham is only 21 and I still feel that he will be a permanent Ray beginning in 2014, but I don't see him at SS....I think he will be moved to either 2B or a corner OF position......He won't hit 30 home runs and knock in 100, but he can be a solid .280 hitter in the ML.....He has some pop, but is more a spray hitter who can go to all fields......Beckham could also be used as a nice trade chip in 2013, but I think the RFO see that as only a possibility, not a reality......The SS everyone has basically said will be a Ray and a future all star, Hak Ju Lee, so far has really been a disappointment offensively and defensively.....He looks totally overmatched in Double A and I think his route to the ML is going to take longer than some predicted.......Right now Beckham is ahead of Lee!
The two to keep a close eye on for the future as a Rays SS are Ryan Brett at Bowling Green and Derek Dietrich at Pt. Charlotte, both are only 20-21, have the tools, have some pop, are defensively sound....Keep an eye on those two......Would not surprise me if Lee gets demoted back to Class A Pt. Charlotte and Dietrich moves up to Double A in his place.
Right now Bowling Green (Class A) has 4-5 players that could be fulltime Rays by 2015 or seven 2014.
By saying closer and he was doing great things in college, you imply he was ML ready.
Did you really just say Unaffordable and catcher in the same sentence? Brian McCann, a perennial all-star at catcher was only paid 6.7 mil last year. And he makes the 4th most of any catcher. Stop digging a bigger hole.
And yes. Today BJ Upton is probably our second best option for SS if S-Rod were to go down. Him and Zobrist.
"teams are probably looking AT LEAST four-to-five years ahead with most of their first-round draftees"
Thank for arguing against you own stance by saying that. In 2008, Beckham was the best pick for 4 to 5 years down the road.
Off topic, but not going to bring up an old thread. Look at where where Pena is today .304. However, his OBP is at .451. In terms of getting on base Pena is going to be 100 points higher than Kotchman due to the walks he draws and that translates into more runs. And he does it while hitting at the top of the lineup and driving in runs and winning games.
Kotchman has been hitting 7th and 8th in the lineup (is benched today) and pulling off a .160 avg. There are already talks about LaPorta being called back to the majors.
I didn't "imply" anything ... but ... you're free to believe whatever you wish.
There's no doubt in my mind that (barring severe injury) Posey will be playing for years after Beckham is forgotton. And ... here we are ... four years after Beckham was drafted ... and ... he's nowheresville ... ESPECIALLY compared to Posey's progress and current position with the giants AND in the public eye ... so ... it's abundantly clear RIGHT NOW ... that the Rays drafting Beckham instead of Posey was a "blunder".
IF Navarro was an all-star each season after 2008 ... four years running and duplicating his 2008 season each succeeding year ... and had hit free agency (which he would have) ... his free agency offers would have gone through the roof by now ... well above what the Rays would have been willing to pay him.
As is the same case with Beckham ... if Upton was such a great shortstop ... he would still be playing shortstop. Instead ... Upton was moved to the outfield ... and Beckham will be, too! Defensively, right now, Brignac is clearly the best shortstop ... Rodgriguez a tad less so. While Rodriguez and Zobrist are excellent natural second basemen ... I believe Rodriguez does play short a tad better than Zobrist would. BUT ... it's ALL ACADEMIC. Neither Upton nor Zobrist are going to become the everyday shortstop. If it's not going to be Brignac or Rodriguez long-term ... and unless a shortstop is traded for (any available?) in the near future ... the future shortstop looks to be Hak-Ju Lee.
Gimenez looks OK at catcher at the moment ... and the Rays would clearly have been far better off right now had they drafted Posey instead of Beckham in 2008 ... and ... if Beckham does make the majors down the road ... it will almost certainly be as an outfielder or first baseman ... (UNLESS Brignac (now at Durham) and Rodriguez were to experience season-ending injuries ... in which case the Rays might have to bring Beckham up to alternate at short with Johnson.)
The ONLY legitimate comparison between Kotchman and Pena is a DEFENSIVE comparison.
Beyond that, one's an apple ... the other's an orange.
Pena is having a career-year start ... and Kotcham is on the rocks. That's the way the cookie crumbles. You bet on black ... and red comes up!
Back in December, I would have stayed with Kotchman as both a "reward" for an excellent 2011 season ... a $4.35 million lesser salary ... and the hope that he would continue to hit well over .300 for most of the season again! I could have been wrong ... just like the Rays were wrong in drafting Beckham instead of Posey!
When Pena left in 2010 ... he had hit .195 for the season and had 165 strikeouts. For the Cubs (and $10 million) in 2011, he hit .225 and still had the 160 strikeouts ... so ... where's the OBVIOUS upside (UNLESS, of course, you have one of those famous crystal balls!). It was a crapshoot ... Kotchman at $3 million or pena at $7.35 million ... and ... at the moment ... it looks like Friedman may have won. (???)
I know it's only 2 games, but keep a record of your stats, BJ's game winning 2 run single Saturday night, BJ, game winning sac fly in Sunday's game......And you will be seeing a lot more of this kind of impact from the player they missed most when the season began........I told you, but you refuse to see it, that his presence changes the entire dynamics of this team for the better......On that single Saturday night, because of his speed he caused the OF to over throw the ball to third another run scored and BJ wound up on third base!
We were at the game Saturday and when BJ got that 2 run single the entire dugout was on their feet cheering like he had just hit a grand slam.....They, and the fans judging by the cheers from 32,000 he got, are glad he is back!
Let's get this straight. Navarro at most would have commanded 5 million a year if he ended up being a perrenial all star.
You would bring back Kotchman which had similar stats to Navarro in 2008 just last year. However, you would not bet on Navarro in 2008 because? Catcher is not even an offensive juggernaut position. Seems hypocritical that you would bet on Kotchman but not Navarro. It is clear in 2008 Beckham was the right choice considering what we had. We had no depth at SS at all and an all star catcher.
As for Pena having a career start this year, so what? Even if his avg drops to .250 (which I doubt due to him changing his swing), he will still have an OBP at around .380 due to his walks. Much better than Kotchman did last year. We all know how much you love people sitting at first base and not driving in runs. So this should make since to you rookie.
Well ... Upton's been with the organizatioin since being drafted in 2002 (Shields drafted in 2000) ... and he debuted with the big team in August, 2004 (Shields debuted May, 2006) ... so ... he's pushing being on the scene in the Rays spotlight for some eight-plus seasons ... and ... over that time ... he's definitely developed a fan following. I'm just not one of them.
BUT ... he had a career year in 2007 ... and ... I suppose that could happen again ... although the intervening four seasons seem to be evidencing that it's pretty unlikely. For me ... it's been time for some new blood in centerfield for the last couple of seasons ... but I realize there's an element within the Rays organization that's hooked on Upton ... and I believe that the Rays will likely re-sign him out of free agency. All-in-all ... I believe he's over-rated ... and there's no doubt that other teams have bought into that over-estimation ... often responding to the exaggerated reputation rather than to the reality. But, we'll see. Maybe, after all these years, he'll finally begin to match-up with the expectations of his fans. (?)
You stick with "toemaytoe" ... I'll stick with "toemottoe".
(And ... Posey didn't begin playing regularly for the Giants until 2010 ... and I most certainly supported keeping Navarro around in 2009 based on his 2008 performance ... but ... he self-destructed. So ... Posey coming up with the Rays in 2010 instead of the Giants (and becoming ALROTY instead of NLROTY) ... and as a replacement for Navarro ... could be expected to have had a very significant, very positive impact on the performance of the team overall through 2010 and (had he not broken his leg) 2011 ... and ... there would be a "catcher" sweepstakes going on now ... so ... it would clearly seem that the Rays ROI with Posey would have been almost incalcuably better had they selected Posey instead of Beckham in the 2008 draft.)
And ... for the eleventeenth time: the only legitimate comparison between Kotchman and Pena is a defensive comparison. On offense ... one is an apple and the other is an orange. And ... for the umpteenth time: I would have brought Kotchman back as a 'reward' for his excellent 2011 season, his proven defensive skills at first base, his .300+ batting average; and because he was $4.35 million cheaper. Regarding Kotchman: I bet on red; Friedman bet on black ... and when the wheel stops spinning in October ... maybe the little ball lands in black. But ... that's how the cookie crumbles ... and ... I'd still have made the correct bet on Posey in 2008 ... but maybe the wrong bet on Kotchman for 2012.
Well ... I have very little "inside" knowledge of Cliff Floyd ... BUT ... for whatever reasons ... I was always a fan of the guy ... and ... at one time ... he definitely seemed to be "Mr. Ray" to me!
Frankly, there's NOTHING that I can find or see ANYWHERE that substantiates the credentials of Derek Shelton as an effective "hitting coach" ... and I've seen enough goofy stuff at the plate over the past two seasons that indicates to me that (1.) either the hitting coach is totally ineffective; or, (2.) every Rays player who has a problem at the plate is completely uncoachable! Sometimes ... I've chalked it up to possibly Maddon's "hitting philosophy" ... but ... whatever it is ... it was on full ugly display in particular last July ... and I though Shelton would be replaced before that month ended 9and that Upton was going to become a Nat!).
And ... this weekend ... even your fave was all squirrely again with that left foot nonsense .. plus a newer and slightly crazier twist in his swing! So ... I dunno. Maybe one thing: it might be that these kids would have actually listened to a guy with the presence and experience of Floyd ... and ... maybe ... the manager also ought to convey to the kids that when a coach says "Do this!" ... it is not a mere "suggestion" ... as somebody on the staff has unfortunately stated! (???)
You know ... just as an observer ... I look at a lot of things over two or three seasons ... and I really don't see a lot of "learning" from one season to the next! This time around ... I do see Longoria consciously doing a better job in his approach at the plate than he did last season ... and ... most definitely ... Pena has learned a little different approach at the plate, too, and that has been serving him well ... but ... Zobrist (batting right-handed), Rogriguez, Brignac, Upton, Joyce (against left-handers) ... seemingly ... nothing! (???) And ... there seems to be some of that same lack of learning that pops up with Price, Neimann, Davis, McGee, Howell ... ... ... ?
I think it's a cultural phenomenon that's been developing over the last two or three decades! Today ... apparently nobody but nobody can tell anybody what to do or how to do it ... EVER!
(Like I've said ... maybe we need compulsory military service to teach young kids to "Do this, NOW!" ... beginning with 16 weeks of basic training formulated on the mid-century Parris Island model! I think the Israelis do it between sophomore and junior years of high school ... which sounds about right to me! Of course ... if the instructors don't know what they're doing or what they're talking about ... well ... fugeddaboudit!)