yea but they are difficut to follow .... i am showing you an easier n more effective appoachbc you have to show that its not about replacing dickeys qs's but creating a more stable overall rotation that over the course of 162 games canpost a better overall qs%, starting w/ productive and full years from the 3 central cogs of the rotation that arent likely to be traded in niese gee and harvey...like i said, if you can get 70% QS rates from those 3 guys (and really niese and gee both did that and harvey wasnt far off) over full seasons, then you are not really asking a ton from the remaining 2 spots in the rotation....then it is just calculating the relative QS%'s of each pitcher that will occupy each respective spot for however long you predict they will occupy it plus whatever the QS% of the starts that are relegated to spot starters, or the "6th man" in the rotation

example

if we were to go w/ the idea that each of those guys puts up an average 70% QS rate over 32 starts each, you start w/ 67 quality starts

if santana makes 16 starts before injury/traded and is able to record even an average say 56% QS rate, you are talking about an additional 9 QS, bumping it to 76 QS w/ 50 starts remaing

if marcum starts 20 starts before being traded (as i predict he will) w/ a similar QS%, you are talkinga about rougly 11-12 more QS, marking around 87-88 QS w/ 30 starts remaing

If Wheeler takes over for Santana and is allowed to make even 10 starts before being shut down and records QS in 50% of them (which i think is reasonable - more than that might be a stretch bc of innings limits) that is another 5 QS w/ 20 starts remaining (92-3 overall QS)

now this is where it gets iffy

of those 20 remaining starts, you will likely have starts made by mejia, mchugh, hefner, & perhaps others.....i think a conservative approach would be to say that roughly 1/3 of those will be converted into QS...meaning roughly 7 additional QS....bringing the grand total by these calculations to the 99-100 range....meaning, it is reasonable to expect a similar overall number of QS & QS % from last year...if we get solid production from the 5th spot in the rotation in the 2nd half or wheeler hits the ground running (or one of marcum or santana has a good year or even simply performs at the estimated level and is not traded) then it is possible that they exceed last years total....however, there is also certainly a case to be made that they won't get to that number

now, i expect you to have a bit more of an optimistic approach to these calculations but the most effective way to argue your point is to essentially use the model i laid out above but just subbing in your particular expectations

Edited 2/15/13 by Gepett0