Speaking of '07, Jonesers, my wife and I took the family to a game on Labor Day (the Giants were in town). We went to the mall and couldn't even find a Rockies T-shirt. A month later they were on every street corner!
My fears are similar to yours. If the Rox take another dive in 2012 expect an exodus of fans. There's just too much to do in the area to spend money on a team that doesn't seem to care.
Rockies traded for SP'ers Moscoso and lefty Outman. Both could be contributers to the starting rotation, and could also free the Rockies up to trade Hammel. I've included them and their stats below, as well as switched the placement of Hammel and Pomeranz after some reconsiderations.
#1 DeLaRosa; 3.51 - .81/.88 - 1.19 - 1.02 (Will not return to May/June, so the starting rotation would be the five below)
#2 J. Chacin; 3.62 - .87/.77 - 1.31 - 2.14#3 Nicasio; 4.14 - 1.02/.81 - 1.27 - 1.40#4 Mortensen; 3.86 - .94/.51 - 1.35 - 1.46#5 Pomeranz; 5.40 - 1.04/.71 - 1.31 - 1.17#6 Moscoso; 3.38 - 0.80/0.58 - 1.09 - 0.38 (Moscoso has put up some good numbers, but his GO/AO is a major concern that could prove terminal to a starting rotation spot at Coor's Field. His ERA, H/IP and WHIP are likely to suffer in Denver compared to Oakland)
#7 Hammel; 4.76 - 1.03/.55 - 1.43 - 1.12#8 Outman; 3.70 - 1.06/0.60 - 1.46 - 0.73 (Likewise, Outman needs to induce more groundouts and I'd expect his Numbers to climb like Moscoso's probably will, but not to the same degree)#9 Chatwood; 4.75 - 1.17/.52 - 1.67 - 1.34
With a fully-stocked AAA rotation, the Rockies are currently looking at 3more SP'ers than they need, two if Mortensen is our 6th SP/long reliever and four if DLR is included. We have three more 6th/LR candidates in the 'Springs - Williamson, Graham and Rogers.
I really think Hammel has proven all he can in Denver - a streaky 5th guy in the rotation - and we should look at trading him for farm depth. It would likely be best for both him and us.
Kind of boggles my mind we trade our 4th-best SP with hope some new, young arms work out; "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush". If pitching was a requirement of the deal, would have been nice to ship out Hammel (a bird in hand with no meat on the bone and a funny smell) and and another of our extra arms (Rodgers) instead, but it is what it is.
Can probably pencil Hammel in again at the back of the rotation this year, unless he's traded or gets beat out for the spot by Outman or Chatwood. I've read speculation Outman may be the Rox's 6thSP/L.Relief this year and Chatwood would be good presence in AAA awaiting a callup.
With Slowey gone, I've got 4 SP still penciled in for AAA - White and 3 AA callups; Friedrich, Riordan and Scahill - and another three 6thSP/L.Relief possibilities listed previously.
DLR can NOT be penciled in as the ace... even IF (and thats an if for sure) he does come back in June. You can't assume he'll be as good as he was.
So what you're left with are Chacin, a couple good prospects in Pomeranz and Moscoso... and a bunch of junk. Which on paper looks to be maybe the worst rotation in all of baseball. No joking.
Well lets all remember that Chacin has yet to EVER put up any ace-type numbers. Not in ERA, strikeouts, nor wins. He's a solid middle of the rotation 2/3 guy on most clubs, but nothing more.
Pomeranz looks the most likely of the current batch to DEVELOP into an ace... but that's probably a year or two off at least.
DLR could have at one time become an ace... but that time has passed and there are doubts as to rather or not he will EVER come back as an effective MLB starter.
The rest of the bunch is a mess of unknowns and young question marks who are all unlikely to ever turn out into anything special.
So in summary... it looks to be an ugly year for pitching in Coors.
That's true, but I think that they will put a respectable amount of runs in 2012. They may not put up "Blake St. Bombers" type numbers, but I think they will score enough to fulfill their end of the bargain. That's assuming no big injuries though... which is NOT a given.
What they need to happen to be successful in 2012 is have a Dbacks style surprise crop of breakout years out of these young starting pitchers. Somehow this montly crew of unproven's and nobodies are going to need to produce a couple studs. As a rule of thumb a solid playoff team needs 3 really good starters. So assuming Chacin continues to devolop that means they need two of the rest of the crew to REALLY step it up. I see this as a long shot though... a very long shot.
Should probably update a previous post now that Mortensen and Hammel are gone.stats: ERA - H/K IP - WHIP - GO/AO
#2 J. Chacin; 3.62 - .87/.77 - 1.31 - 2.14#3 J. Nicasio; 4.14 - 1.02/.81 - 1.27 - 1.40#4 Pomeranz; 5.40 - 1.04/.71 - 1.31 - 1.17#5 J. Guthrie; 4.33 - 1.02/.63 - 1.34 - 0.93#6 Moscoso; 3.38 - 0.80/.58 - 1.09 - 0.38
#7 Outman; 3.70 - 1.06/.60 - 1.46 - 0.73#8 A. White; 7.01 - 1.21/.71 - 1.69 - 1.18#9 Chatwood; 4.75 - 1.17/.52 - 1.67 - 1.34
I'd guess Guthrie is already penciled into the #3 spot in the rotation, though I have him as the 4th-best. He's not a front-line starter, but a veteran innings-eater that's almost guaranteed to pitch into th 6th and give rest to a bullpen that could be taxed if the 1-2 SP'ers struggle.
I'd guess Moscoso is likewise penciled into the #5 spot and is the 5th-best. His H/IP and WHIP could easily rise .30 and his ERA +1.00 as he pitches lower in the zone to reduce his astronomically high flyball rate. But like Guthrie, Moscoso is good at working innings to prepare the 'pen for the top of the rotation.
I'd guess Pomeranz will determine who pitches in the #1-2-4 spots. None of his stuff worked last year, but if he got that figured out, he could be our opening day ace. If he's still struggling/developing, than he probably falls to the #4 spot. I'm not expecting big strides from Chacin or Nicasio this spring and think last year is a good example of their pitching abilities.
So, despite the year-old stat ranking above, I'd list out opening day rotation as ----#1 Chacin#2 Pomeranz (L)#3 Guthrie#4 Nicasio#5 Moscoso