My money is on 2. From the head of the snake on down the line. I like Charlie Manuel, but I don't think he is suitable for managing this type of team. He was basically handed a team on the verge of something special and he didn't have to do much in-game managing. 2008 was his easiest season as the bullpen had clear roles and the lineup was pretty much set in stone as well.
And for the kool-aid drinkers, I'm not talking about just setting the lineups, but the situational hitting, the situational pitching, using the "red light/green light" scenarios while players are at bat, etc. It really wouldn't surprise me to see Sandberg be the successor, because he seems to have that fiery type of managerial style. At least publicly. Not saying that Charlie doesn't get on his guys, but who really knows outside of the locker room.
I'm really hoping that the Phillies let this whole thing playout. Don't make any rash decisions, or stupid ones either. If Utley sits out. If Howard can't come back. Don't acquire a replacement. Stick with what you have. If anything, and as unpopular as it will be to say, I'd try to find a way to get Dom Brown into the lineup as a regular. There is no way to see what a person has to offer without giving him a shot that doesn't have him looking over his shoulder the entire time. Granted that will have to include possibly trading away Juan Pierre, but you need to know what you have.