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    • Playoff chances down to 4%
  • To:All
  • 8/23/13
  • insidezona

Hey everyone...

Bad news is, for the Diamondbacks to make the playoffs, the team either needs to go 28-8 or so, or (only!) 22-14 if another team really stumbles.

Good news is, only one of the NL Central teams (Pirates, Cardinals, Reds) needs to stumble to open up an opportunity -- and those three teams play each other quite a bit down the stretch (6 Pirates-Cardinals games, 6 Pirates-Reds games, 7 Cardinals-Reds games).

I ran a few scenarios to see what would need to happen for AZ to at least force a one-game playoff (to get to the one-game WC playoff).

Check it out at insidethezona dot com, if you like! Just a fan looking up numbers for my own benefit, and sharing the research.

Edited 8/23/13   by  insidezona
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Message 40437.3 was deleted
  • 8/30/13
  • insidezona

Yep. Winning 3 of 4 or sweeping that series would have made a tremendous difference in the wild card race.

Last night was unkind to the playoff odds, but they're still up from where they were when this thread was started.

Using the "season to date" projection: 9.8%

Using ZiPS and Steamer (for rest of season stats): 2.5%

Split the difference (ZiPS and Steamer are very pessimistic about Goldschmidt's break through, for instance), and it's like flipping a coin and getting heads 4 times in a row. Not impossible, but...

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  • 8/30/13
  • nikita1
Great analysis for a fan who flunked freshman algebra in high school. Easily understood and presented in a realistic but positive way. I get it. (But can still be excited and look forward to the next few weeks of watching DBacks baseball plus the scoreboards. Thanks for your fine work.)
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  • 9/1/13
  • fredmertz1

so Steve and BB have been making the case it is not over till its over. The Dbacks are still the 6th best team in the league..

StL lost and Cin won. If we get on our 20 game win streak and get help in beating the Dodgers, anything can happen in Baseball..

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