• Welcome Guest
Arizona Diamondbacks

Welcome to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Before posting, please review our Message Board Guidelines

    • Playoff chances down to 4%
  • To:All
  • 8/23/13
  • insidezona

Hey everyone...

Bad news is, for the Diamondbacks to make the playoffs, the team either needs to go 28-8 or so, or (only!) 22-14 if another team really stumbles.

Good news is, only one of the NL Central teams (Pirates, Cardinals, Reds) needs to stumble to open up an opportunity -- and those three teams play each other quite a bit down the stretch (6 Pirates-Cardinals games, 6 Pirates-Reds games, 7 Cardinals-Reds games).

I ran a few scenarios to see what would need to happen for AZ to at least force a one-game playoff (to get to the one-game WC playoff).

Check it out at insidethezona dot com, if you like! Just a fan looking up numbers for my own benefit, and sharing the research.


Edited 8/23/13   by  insidezona
  • Reply to this Message
Message 40437.3 was deleted
  • 8/30/13
  • insidezona

Yep. Winning 3 of 4 or sweeping that series would have made a tremendous difference in the wild card race.

Last night was unkind to the playoff odds, but they're still up from where they were when this thread was started.

Using the "season to date" projection: 9.8%

Using ZiPS and Steamer (for rest of season stats): 2.5%

Split the difference (ZiPS and Steamer are very pessimistic about Goldschmidt's break through, for instance), and it's like flipping a coin and getting heads 4 times in a row. Not impossible, but...

  • Reply to this Message
  • 8/30/13
  • nikita1
Great analysis for a fan who flunked freshman algebra in high school. Easily understood and presented in a realistic but positive way. I get it. (But can still be excited and look forward to the next few weeks of watching DBacks baseball plus the scoreboards. Thanks for your fine work.)
  • Reply to this Message
  • 9/1/13
  • fredmertz1

so Steve and BB have been making the case it is not over till its over. The Dbacks are still the 6th best team in the league..

StL lost and Cin won. If we get on our 20 game win streak and get help in beating the Dodgers, anything can happen in Baseball..

  • Reply to this Message
Recent Discussions
Zombie Night??
Latest by BlueStorm_3t - 2:32 AM
Dbacks = laughing stock of MLB
Latest by dann2291 - 1:18 AM
Dear Management
Latest by xerostomia - 12:57 AM
Kirk
Latest by dbackfanron - Apr-22
series at Cubs
Latest by acromegaly - Apr-22
Fire Kevin Towers
Latest by xerostomia - Apr-22
Towers hires cubs pitcher could be a headline
Latest by luvnlyf1973 - Apr-22
The Diamondbacks can't be this bad ... can they?
Latest by spotticus - Apr-22
Owings' value
Latest by acromegaly - Apr-22
Concern about Goldschmidt
Latest by acromegaly - Apr-22
Powered by Mzinga