"On Hold for now"
Looks like he doesn't want to listen to the low ball offers from the Cardinals. This is huge. Letting Pujols go was smart, but we need to sign Adam ASAP!
Lock this dude up!!! He doesn't need Pujols Money. Mo, Stop with the low ballin!
As would I.
It's a pretty fast change in tone from Waino. Before he said no problem, anytime is good. Something must have rubbed him or the front off the wrong way..
Waino is not ace material anymore. He's lost something from the surgery.
You can't give a middle of the rotation guy max money.
This could be true. One year out of TJ, not really bying the "his not an ace" type of guy.
On the bright side the Cardinals have had a ton of success not paying for players on what they have done. They tend to focus the money on what they are going to do.
If we stick with that, that's ok with me. As long as we keep winning!! :)
It makes way more sense to evaluate Wainwright this season and risking losing him in free agency than to sign him to some ridiculous contract since right now he wants elite ace money where last year he put up middle of the rotation numbers.
If he returns to 2009 and 2010 form, then yeah, he'll get a big payday but at least Mo can say with some real legitimacy he is paying an ace because he has been pitching like an ace.
If he struggles, then that is two years in a row after major surgery and you simply cannot give him a big AAV or a long contract.
Overpaying is how non-top 5 highest payroll teams become handicapped. Good to stay the course.
Agree..and I've heard Adam say that he understands the process.
Both sides appear determined to work out a "fair" extension but it may not be practical to assess his true value until at least part way into the season.
I think Adam realizes that his get his max value he needs to show that he is all the way to his pre-injury form. Can't expect the Cards to pay up to $20 Mil per if he is not that pitcher anymore.
Exactly. Its a gamble, but he might not be the same guy he was. Signing him now to the contract he probably wants could be a huge mistake.
On the other hand, if he goes out and contends for the CY this year...oops.
His agent has to be thinking Adam is a Felix contract-kind of guy. I wouldn't do that deal right now, or even close to it.
There's no way Adam will get what Felix got, even on the open market.
Adam will be 32 in the first year of his new contract; Felix is 26. His contract will end when he's 33.
Adam has also blown out an elbow and undergone TJ surgery.
I'm hoping the Cardinals can sign him for five years, for his age 32-36 seasons. Maybe with some options years.
I'm sure he won't get it (or even close) either. But i'm willing to bet that his agent is using Felix as a bar ("So Felix got...so Adam should get..."). And if I'm Mozeilak and one of the first things I hear involves Felix, I don't listen too closely to the rest, either.
His agent is going to want to come down from Felix. For the reasons you state, that's not a comparable player. I'm trying to decide who I'd compare Wainwright with right now. I think he's definitely below that top class of guys, but he's not Lohse, either.
Why would he need TJ surgery again? There is no reason to think that. He has had a slight tear in his elbow since we acquired him. He's talked about it numerous times and said that when it goes, it goes. And it went. There is no reason to think it's going to tear again.
Also, he obviously isn't going to get Felix money and his agent is not using Felix as the measuring stick for Adam's contract. To suggest that is silly.
They are in early stage talks and I'm sure STL wants to go the 3-4 year route with 1 or 2 year vesting options and Adam probably wants minimum 5 years. I'd be they're talking in the 18 ayear range and Adam wants closer to 20.
But someone else said it perfectly. No reason to pay him that right now. He'll barely get that in Free Agency even if he has a CY Young caliber year. So we can pay him that then if he does come back 100%. No reason to pay all that money on such a big question mark.
I doubt we'll ever know for sure, but I'd bet quite a bit Felix's name was dropped by Adam's agent. As in, "If Felix gets that, Adam deserves at least this..."
They're going to sell Adam as the pre-TJ Adam, who was a lot closer to Felix. I don't think there's anything wrong with it, but as soon as you know they're looking for huge money, like you said, there's no point in continuing--just wait for the end of the season. If he returns to form, you're going to pay him what he's asking for now anyway. If he's still less than that but improving, you can find a place to meet.
That's got to be why negotiations tanked so quickly. They sat down, Adam's agent said, "Felix got 7 years at $25 million a year. Now, Adam's not quite back as much as he will be, and he's a little older, so we'll take 5 years at $23 million." Mozeliak knew instantly there was no reason to even talk, or else he went first and offered $16M or so for three or four years with options and Wainwright's side shut it down.
Without seeing him pitch this year, there's going to be gaps--last year he wasn't even as good as unsigned Kyle Lohse. He's sure he'll be a CY contender this year. Mozeliak isn't going to sign last year's Adam to the contract Adam is sure he'll deserve in a few months.
I'm hoping he either does go out and kill, or else he holds form and we get a new normal. Either of those give a clear direction to take. If he starts strong but fades or even regresses for the year it could get ugly.
"Why would he need TJ surgery again?"
Because his unchanged throwing motion will very likely cause another injury.
Pay him when he proves that he's still an ace and not an innings eater.