Last season was a rare situation. The economy actually depressed FA prices and had teams looking to get payroll relief. The Nats were buyers in a buyers' market. Whether due to Bowden's incompetence or the Lerner/Kasten financial constraints, this opportunity was squandered.

Now the Nats are looking like they not only have a real GM in place that at a minimum won't be a detriment, and they are still buyers in a buyers' market with payroll coming off the balance sheets. They do have a fair amount of players hitting arbitration years, so that will add to the budget needed. However, they may find that most of their arbitration eligible players aren't worth dealing with at all and take their chances with the open market.

This snippet from Buster Olney on the state of the league's financial system means that a team like the Nats may actually get a second chance to be active in a rare year where inventory is high, prices are lower due to the economy, and they have limited long-term financial liabilities. What will they do? What will they do?

"...
Baseball's financial structure appears to have reached a tipping point that can be simply defined. "The arbitration process is now outdated," said a highly-ranked executive, "because the players can get more money in arbitration than they would through free agency."

So now teams are about to adjust to this reality, and this is why multiple general managers expect that there will be dozens of young players with three, four and five years of major league experience who will be cut loose in the next 41 days, rather than offered arbitration. Not a handful, but dozens.

I went through the rosters with some executives over the last 48 hours and counted 93 solid non-tender candidates -- players who simply won't be offered contracts for 2010 by their current teams. If the final numbers come close to that figure, this would mean that there would be close to 300 veteran players looking for jobs this winter, a staggering number that will inevitably depress the asking prices for free agents.

..."

"...who will be cut loose in the next 41 days, rather than offered arbitration. Not a handful, but dozens."

I love the sound of that!

And the cherry on top is that we will not lose any draft picks for these available players!

.

A supply surplus sure sounds like promising news to Nats fans, considering that we have a desperate demand for a talent infusion at nearly every position except 3B. The problem remains that while players will be signing for less money than in previous years, they will still demand a premium to play for a team coming off of consecutive 100 loss seasons, and Lerner has shown a clear preference to wait for bargain deals to come available.

"Whether due to Bowden's incompetence or the Lerner/Kasten financial constraints" --- Considering that a GM's job depends upon putting a winning team on the field, it would be a very rare occurance for one to spend a signifcant amount less than the budget put forth by ownership. Certainly Bowdon was not a top quality GM and certainly he was long overdue to be canned, but had Lerner allowed payroll to increase to even the level of income received from revenue sharing and the MASN deal (~$95 million), for better or worse Jimbo would absolutely have found a way to make use of the extra cash.

Glad to see you took into account that, according to Forbes, Theodore Lerner is the richest owner in MLB? He comes in at $3.2B And, without anyone involved with the Cubbies (it didn't have that info) the next richest is John Malone of the Braves at $1.5B.

Just saying....

Well, I think it was James Carville who said: "it's the economy stupid!"

If the economy continues to shuffle along a low growth trajectory the pressure will be on the players, no question. Who can afford the cost of going to ballgames anymore? Payrolls are going to be constrained because people can't afford $100+ to go to see a baseball game.

The Lerners are NOT going to expand their payroll in 2010. I don't care how many billions Ted has.

They will sign some journeyman baseball players who can help them avoid total embarassment on the field. But they are playing for time until Strasburg, Lannan, Zimmermann and some other home grown pitchers with less than 6 years in the system can get them close enough to pay a difference making starter.

I look for modest improvement next year. Modest as in a roster of modestly talented journeymen players who can win 70 or 75 and lose 85 or 90. Better than 59-103. But not close to contention.

And Ted will make a pretty good profit off that kind of record with those kind of players.

Go Nats!

I just hope modest doesn't include the likes of DCab, Tavarez, and company. Modest could quickly turnout to be another 100 loss season.

Adding veteran pitchers to our team seems to be a nice way of saying Bartolo Colon and Tim Redding might be available. I'd rather sit and suffer through another 100+ loss season than watch the team waste money on bottom of the barrel players who's best years are so far behind them I don't even recall..
O.Hudson?? Hasn't he lost his job to Belliard??
It's going to be a quiet winter in Nats town I fear. But better quiet than wasteful, and trying to get the fan base to believe that those retreads will do anything but make for another long summer.

How 'bout the rule 5 draft??? Wonder who's going to be left unprotected. That's (sadly) what I'm looking forward to.

Be well all..

>>"The Lerners are NOT going to expand their payroll in 2010. I don't care how many billions Ted has."

The Nats, by wisely re-allocating the money coming off the books, could make some solid additions this winter and stay on the same payroll figure they had this year.

Having said that, Rizzo has stated that he expects to land a Type-A free agent starting pitcher this winter, saying: "We'll get one of them". There's no reason to not believe him, since all the stars are aligning themselves in the Nats favor for this off-season: The number of FAs on the market, the Nats having a huge amount of payroll space, and the fact that we won't get punished for the signing like we would in another year or two.

The Nats management have made a few comments that indicate that they realize they could compete for a spot in the postseason by 2011 if they take advantage of the opportunities presented to them in this off-season.

It would be really nice to see some quality pitchers coming our way this winter via trade or via the FA market. It has been a difficult two years and some quality baseball is due for us.

that is my 'hope' as well. The Nats can keep payroll that same as last season $60-65 million... which gives them about $15-20 million to spend on filling holes.

I am confident that Rizzo will acquire 1 of the type A's... or what he considers type A. I am guessing 1 SP signee, resign Livan, either keeping Olsen or acquiring a non-tender of similar ability, then finding a MI'fer, Catcher, and 2 bullpen arms.

thats 6 players... not impossible- especially given the likelihood of numerous non-tenders becoming FA's- that list has some good players on it.

$8-9 million for a FA SP
$1+ million for Livan
$2 million for a defensive MI'fer
$1 million for a Catcher (backup/stopgap variety)
____
$13 million spent with the remaining going to a couple bullpen arms... maybe $3-6 million total.

I didn't include Olsen or his non-tender replacement- because Olsen's salary is already included in articles I've seen about what our offseason payroll will be. I have read somewhere between $44-49 million committed for next season- and it mentioned that includes estimated arbitration raises.

that is where I get the $15-20 million figure from.

I know this is all guesswork and such... but I like dreaming and imagining what the Nats can become. :)

Well, saying and doing are two things. If they can lure a difference making pitcher with a big contract while maintaining a $60 to $65 million payroll they will do it. But I don't see Ted expanding his payroll beyond that without some kind of guarantee from his baseball people that it will lead to higher attendance, higher revenues and a wider profit margin in 2010. Don't think any of his baseball people are going to put themselves out on that limb.

Go Nats!

Yes. "Doing" is completely different from "saying". Let us see how the winter transpires because our fellow posters think the stars have aligned in our favor. I really do wonder how many quality players have us on their destination list.

Why would Rizzo consider a Type A different from what an official Type A is, when the term denotes draft pick compensation? Again, the Nats' first Type A signing this winter is compensation-free, because they cannot lose the #1 pick overall.

You're underestimating the cost of a Type A FA SP, as well as what a top-notch 2B would make. Hudson made $6.25 million in 2008 before taking a pay cut for the one-year deal with the Dodgers after his wrist injury. Polanco made $4.6 million in 2009. Figgins (who could be a great 2B or super-sub for the Nats) made $5.775 million in 2009.

Yes, I read that you wrote "$2 million for a defensive MI," but with so few teams having the payroll flexibility to sign FA's, the Nats could go for a 2B who is just as good at the plate as he is with the leather.

The first overall is not compensation free. Teams with top 15 picks cannot lose their first round pick, instead they lose their second round pick. The league also has rules in place to keep limits on the # of type A players signed.

As for the payroll, Olsen made 2.8m last year and can only be offered 20% less as the minimum which is why he's a non-tender candidate. If he's gone, that gives a little more flexibility.

I could see 8-10m for a top SP like Marquis or Pineiro this year unless we get Lackey or Wolf in which case expect 12-14 or more. I wouldn't be surprised to see two guys like Garland/Davis at more of a 6-8m range each.

I would expect someone along the lines of Iwamura, Jerry Hairston or a non-tender that plays good defense at 2B/SS. I don't see them going for the big name if they get a Type A SP or even two Type B SPs.

That leaves the bullpen and the legit options there which could include another Joe Beimel sighting. The SP signing will likely determine the rest of the spending. If it's Lackey or Wolf then I expect Livan at a discount, a good second tier guy at 2B and one of the Type B relievers in addition to a second reliever.

I view C as a bigger priority than 2B but I don't think the team has given any indication that they do.

>>"I view C as a bigger priority than 2B but I don't think the team has given any indication that they do."

Not long after Flores needed his surgery there were numerous reports that the Nats might be looking for a catcher this off-season as insurance in case he isn't ready to start the season.

what I meant by that Type A statement is perhaps Rizzo is looking at a risk/reward SP who would be a type A if healthy... ala Rich Harden or something.

And I don't believe the Nats will sign a 'top available' SS or 2B. I keep mentioning in other threads of them signing someone like Adam Everett- he made $1+ million this season... and he had the 2nd best UZR rating in all of MLB. We need a vacuum cleaner at SS or 2B, hitting ability is secondary for this position imo. Pitching and defense win games, I'd be content with Everett at SS- and 2B with Desi/Guz battling it out. We have enough offense at other positions- I just don't see hitting ability for this signing as critical as defensive ability. Sure- it would be great to getting hitting and defense- but defense should be the top priority imo. We had the WORST D in all of MLB for 2009- and SS/CF typically sees more action that any other position on the field- that is why I said we need a defensive specialist. Our overall D will improve dramatically if we sign someone like Adam Everett.

my $8-9 million estimate for a SP is not undervalued for 'who' we will be able to get. For that money- we can sign someone like Harden, or we can get a Garland/Marquis type. Then still have $1-2 million left to resign someone like Livan.
Lackey/Wolf just finished pitching in the playoffs... why would they come here?? I just don't see it happening- we have too many other holes to plug to spend $12+ million on one player.

you never know who might want to come; the playoffs are never for certain and and Torres dissed Wolf by not starting him earlier in the series after being his best starter all year.

I would spend the money on the pitching; the line-up should not be that bad if Guzman can/will play second and Desond can make less that 50 errors. Dunn was passable defensively at first and outfield should be improved with Morgan all year. A cather would be nice also but I would spend on starters and bullpen.

I want them to view Flores as the insurance. There's going to be 3-4 legit catchers out there so I'd like them to get one and use Flores as the backup until he proves to be healthy.