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    • Impressive Johnson
  • To:All
  • 1/15/13
  • TiggerBounce

Rumors and speculation about Jim Johnson caused me to look up his stats. ERA looks good. Would be stellar for a starter, but he is a reliever. Whip is good too. SO/9 is a bit low.

51 saves in 2012. BFD. Saves don't impress me much. How well did he perform in close games?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=M8aF3

25 times he entered a game with a 1 run lead or a tie.
Of those appearances, 24 times he did not allow a single run, earned or otherwise.
Once the wheels fell off and he gave up six runs. A bad day, but that's 1/25. 96% success rate.

Add another small piece to the package and I would trade Rick to get them.

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  • 1/15/13
  • baseislife

The thing ya didn't include......

He made 2.7 mill last year. His arb is coming up in a bit, and it is ez for me to think he's going up to 4 M+. Just as the Potato would never have gotten 49 for 49 again, Johnson will NEVER approach that 51 number again.

O's won a huge amount last licks. If they normally win their usual 75 (like they will again this season) he wouldn't approach 30.

If he wins his arbitration (or they settle) in the mid-four millions, he'll be the biggest bust with his 25 saves or so. The fact (or maybe fact) that Baltimore wants to trade him tells me they are destine for the bottom two in that division, and they know it.

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  • 1/15/13
  • ty mccobb
Good points.
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  • 1/15/13
  • Mr Wert

Well, I'm not interested in rehashing the pros and cons of closers that we had this weekend except to say that I still think the ML consensus is that you're a better team if you have a proven one.

The fact that Johnson won't save 51 games again is sort of irrelevant. The better key would be would he save 90-95% games he enters for a $4 million salary. Would Benoit? Would Dotel? Would Coke? Rondon?

Of these 5 guys, who would most likely save 40?

If you want to say that we don't need Johnson and we can have 4-5 guys close out those 40-50 games that you need to close I would say fine and dandy. When was the last time a ML team had 4 guys with at least 10 saves? Last I saw they're still going to award saves to somebody if the criteria is met. What happens when 1 guy blows it tonight and another tomorrow night? What if you blow 3 saves in 4 games with 3 different guys? Now everyone's brain is messed up. Better to have only one guy be on the spot than your whole bullpen.

Me? I'd feel better with Johnson sitting out there in the 8th inning and the Tigers up by 1 with Benoit trying to get to the 9th.

I like both Coke and Dotel to hold a lead in the 9th than I do Benoit. I have no idea about Rondon but I would guess he will not be the guy....just yet.

I'm all in favor of using your best pitcher at the moment to get the job done that needs to be done, but until the powers that be think you don't need a closer "closer" I think I want one. I'm with Leyland on this.

I doubt we get Johnson anyway, but I'd take him and let Porcello go. I think Smyly is going to be a good one and we won't miss Rick. As to the evenuppidiness of the trade, I'll defer to others. I think we both would have to add something to the pot to make a trade work.

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  • 1/15/13
  • ericg75

The thing is, Johnson himself was not an established closer going into the 2012 season. Prior to that, he had 19 career saves.

With Johnson, the Orioles did the very thing you're saying no sane MLB team would dare do. They took their best reliever and said, "Bam! I dub thee Closer!"

Because they took that risk, you're now saying he's "established" and presents a better alternative than any of our guys?

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  • 1/15/13
  • Mr Wert

I don't know...but do you want Benoit on the mound to start the 9th leading by 1?

Dotel? I might vs. Benoit.

Coke? I would maybe over the 1st two.

Al BBQ? Nope.

So who do you want on the mound in the 9th with a 1 run lead?

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  • 1/15/13
  • bobrob2004
It's the catch-22. I recently graduated college and keep getting passed over because I don't have enough experience. How am I supposed to get experience if no one will hire me?

Same thing with closers. How do we know Alburquerque, Rondon, Benoit, etc. can't be good closers until they actually get save opportunities?
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  • 1/15/13
  • bobrob2004
I have complete faith in Alburquerque.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/15/13
  • TiggerBounce

<<<I don't know...but do you want Benoit on the mound to start the 9th leading by 1?>>>
Would not be a bad choice.

Dotel?
Facing RHB, yes.
Facing LHB, no.

Coke?
Facing LHB, yes.
Facing RHB, no.

Al BBQ?
Yes, yes, and yes.


Edited 1/15/13   by  TiggerBounce
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Message 75529.10 was deleted
  • 1/15/13
  • bobrob2004
<Benoit>

If your $5.5 million reliever can't close games, what the heck are you doing paying him $5.5 million?!
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  • 1/15/13
  • TiggerBounce
Exactly.
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  • 1/15/13
  • bobrob2004
Thanks!
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Message 75529.14 was deleted
  • 1/15/13
  • TiggerBounce

Yeah, con'grad'ulations. lol

What did you major in?

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  • 1/15/13
  • bobrob2004
I have a BBA in Accounting from Davenport University.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/15/13
  • TigerCanuck
Sabre-metrics?
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/15/13
  • TiggerBounce
A numbers guy. Makes sense. :)
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/15/13
  • TigerCanuck
Congratulations Bob! Can you do my taxes this year? :-)
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/15/13
  • six-hopper

"until the powers that be think . . . "

Mr. Wert, you should avoid lemmings and cliffs.


Edited 1/19/13   by  six-hopper
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