Here's my guess:
Here's the 2012 ERA for them:
Niemann- 3.08Hellickson- 3.10Moore- 3.81Cobb- 4.03
We lost way more games because of lack of hitting, opportune or otherwise, than we lost because the pitchers were lit up.
And then, if they got in trouble, the BP came in. That's the story of the 2012 season.
It's a big jump from having a 3.00 ERA for 5 innings than for 7 to 9 innings.
I'm not saying the kids cannot get better ... just they need more work to learnhow to pitch in the show. It's a process and takes two years at the very leastto figure it all out about how to pitch at the elite level.
starmand.....the only real thing we got to count on are our SPers. As of now and the talent we traded for like Loney, now Meyers, Escobar.....we really don't know 'jack' about these guys. Never seen em play here.
Geez, I hope Andy didn't hang us out to dry!
If what you are saying is that we won't see many, if any, complete games from them as with Shields, I agree.
Well....we might...I guess it all depends who they pitch against.
ray_uk, may be a premature promotion. Niemann has seniority.
Yeah, it's kind of a "cultural shock". I expected Shields to be traded ... and in my opinion, preferably in June or July of next season ... but I really didn't expect Davis to go, too, especially in the same trade, especially for three prospects and a question mark, especially since Badenhop was let go (thereby eliminating two effective middle-relievers).
We'll see. I think Myers and Odorizzi are absolutely going to have to make a big (and long-term) splash with the big team THIS season ... and Montgomery and Leonard are going to have to be equally golden at Durham this season ... for this trade to be considered even just "OK".
Right now, at least to me, there's a big hole in the bullpen and a question mark with the starters (ESPECIALLY if Neimann doesn't return to his best).
Yeah, I think Archer surprised me some last season ... and, obviously, he, Moore and Hellickson are still very young and inexperienced ... all still with B-I-G upsides as you say. Neimann? I don't know. Excellent when he first came up ... not so excellent after his back injury ... and who knows how he comes out of the borken leg. I'm hoping for the best ... because ... I think it will take BOTH Price AND him to effectively "anchor" the starting staff.
The bullpen? I dunno'. Yes ... they've very successfully rebuilt the pen over the past five winters (but that's not a guarantee that result will continue) ... BUT ... they NEVER had any effective LONG relievers until this past season with Davis and Badenhop ... and, now, both gone. I have liked the development (however slow) of Ramos and Gomes ... so ... they're going to have to take over for Badenhop and Davis ... although ... Ramos has also been projected as a starter ... so ... who knows. Given what I feel was being shortchanged in the trade ... I might also expect some bullpen work from Odorizzi and Mongomery if necessary. (?)
Anyway ... as I've said dozens of times ... I'm ALL IN for bringing in young guys ... rather than constantly fishing for never-beens and over-the-hillers with the long-shot hope of getting one good season out of them ... so ... while I think Friedman shortchanged himself here ... I am gung-ho for these four newbies ... as well as for Escobar and (especially) Loney ... AS WELL AS Gimenez to replace Molina ... and NOT re-signing (especially) Scott, Roberts and Howell! (By the way ... what's up with Farnsworth???)
Note: I realize that Joyce's career BA against righties is about 65 points higher than against lefties ... but even against lefties ... his career average is no worse than were the overall BAs of Pena and Scott last season ... so ... I'd be happy at this point with Joyce doing the primary DHing ... with a regular outfield, then, of Myers-Jennings-Fuld (backed-up by Zobrist and Guyer) ... with the DH being backed up by committee (hopefully including Gimenez). (???)
Here's how I would set up the Rays pitching for 2013. The number is BAA for 2012
1. Price L .2262. Hellickson R .2443. Cobb R .2544. Archer R .2155. J.P. Howell L .223
Nieman R .213 Moore L .238McGee L .168Peralta R .200Ramos L .176
Rodney R .167
Other than Price who goes 7 innings, every starter gets yanked at the end of the 5th inning until the All Star break. Then we go to 6 innings or 7 innings.
Nieman, Moore and Peralta ... rotate every three days to pitch the 6th and the 7th.Ramos, McGee and Rodney ... rotate every three days to pitch the 8th and the 9th.
The Ordorizzi kid is back up inning eater as needed.
The last 2 innings the opposition figures to bat - less than .176 - that's on hit given the at bat stats ... not too many people will score runs getting one hit in two innings.
The 6th and 7th are the innings we almost always have cost us games. But if we usethe three pitchers to pitch those innings, I have pointed out, the oppostion figures tobat .220 for those two innings. That amounts to about one hit on average for thosetwo innings.
The starters figure to give up just hits in 5 innings on average. 15 outs, 3 to 4 hits.
27 outs ... and we figure to give up just 6 hits per game (maybe 7) in a 9 inning game.
None of our pitchers walks all that many guys. (They would walk less if they trusted their stuff more and did not try to be cute and get guys to chase.) So, based on the stats we figure to walk 3 guys per game. That one hit and one walk every other inning.
The opposition is not going to score many runs getting 6 hits and 3 walks per game onaverage. Plus, they only get to see the starter twice, then they have to adjust twicemore to the relievers. Who given the stats are hard to hit.
What this setup accomplishes ... Every reliever is fresh when called on and can go 2 innings.Every starter get to build up arm strength and skill sets and not throw more pitches than his arm can recover from in 4 or 5 days.
This will be Howell's second year back from TJ surgery. He has always been hard to hit thefirst and second time thru an order. His K to IP ratio is very high if you take out the stats when his elbow as trashed.
If we can find a VERY GOOD defensive CF guys that can catch the ball in the gap, we haveeverything we need to make a solid playoff run. If we can find a RH DH who is not a walkingstrike out, we can win the division and have a good chance to make it to the WS.
That's how I would do it.
Here's an amazing stat for our staff from last year.
Not ONE of our pitchers who pitched in at least 16 games gave up more hits than their innings pitched. The worst of the bunchwas Badenhop who gave up 63 hits in 62.1 innings pitchedwhich is technically 63 innings.
That is GOOD pitching.