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    • Odds for a Harvey/Strasburg matchup?
  • To:All
  • 2/15/13
  • Metopia
I tried wrapping my head around this but am hoping somebody here knows how to do it. I'm looking for the mathematical probability, odds they will meet this season. It's not that easy.
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  • 2/15/13
  • KB24NYM

If Harvey is the 3 and Strasburg is the Nats 1, seems like a good chance they meet in the April 19-21 series or miss by a day.

Its a long season and they meet 18 times, it could happen.

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  • 2/15/13
  • Metopia
There are many possibilities. They could meet four times although highly improbable. Somebody could figure out the odds for that but it would be crazy.
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  • 2/15/13
  • rnixon
Simplest way, unless you are trying to factor in injuries, with a 5 man rotation there is a 1 in 5 shot Strasburg is Harvey's opponent on any given matchup. If the teams play each other 18 times, they likely will match up 3-4 times. Spot in the rotation I think is limited, with off days it get's disjointed quickly. I'd put the over/under at 2.5.
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  • 2/15/13
  • Metopia

Here's as far as I got. Everytime Harvey starts against the Nats, there's a 20% chance he'll face Strasburg. But everytime Strasburg starts against the Mets, there's also a 20% he'll face Harvey. Then you have to figure in each's number of starts versus the other team. Let's say they each get four starts for the sake of this equation.

Just from that input, I forget how to find the probability of a meeting. I'm not factoring in injuries, rotation slots or rainouts. 2.5 as an over/under seems a little high. I'd be happy with one but I was hoping somebody could do the math so I could make a bet with my buddy that they will square off.

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Message 548359.6 was deleted
  • 2/15/13
  • 4545_ajd

"Here's as far as I got. Everytime Harvey starts against the Nats, there's a 20% chance he'll face Strasburg. But everytime Strasburg starts against the Mets, there's also a 20% he'll face Harvey. Then you have to figure in each's number of starts versus the other team. Let's say they each get four starts for the sake of this equation."

.2*.2= .04. So there is a 96% chance in any given game that they won't face each other.

They play eachother 19 times, so the odds of them missing each other all 19 times are .96^19 which gives you a 46.0419202% chance they won't face each other and a 53.9580798% chance that they will face each other.


Edited 2/15/13   by  4545_ajd
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Message 548359.8 was deleted
  • 2/15/13
  • Metopia
Thanks. I was guessing it was about 50%. This gives me a slight edge. I better include an injury clause though.
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  • 2/16/13
  • Gepett0

the thing is, thats not exactly accurate...bc typically a number 1 doesnt face a number 3 or 4 very often...they usually face other 1s or they face a 2 or 5...

strasburg will be a number 1

harvey will likely be a 3 or 4...that means the odds are worse that they will face eachother

if santana needs an extra week and harvey has a chance at being a 2 pitcher the odds increase

either way, next season, they will likely both head their respective staffs meaning it is very likely that they meet at least 1x

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  • 2/16/13
  • 4545_ajd

"the thing is, thats not exactly accurate...bc typically a number 1 doesnt face a number 3 or 4 very often...they usually face other 1s or they face a 2 or 5..."

He qualified it with,

" I'm not factoring in injuries, rotation slots or rainouts. "

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  • 2/16/13
  • thebobymon

Probably pretty good as it will sell tickets by the boatload.

An extra days rest here, a rainout there...

Easily manipulated.

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