Let's say the Met OF gets an aggregate of between 160 and 200 RBIs to go with between 45 and 60 HR's and a .270 BA.

The pitching pitches as well as last year and the bullpen improves, as it can't easily be worse.

It's not asking a lot, that's about 55 RBIs per, along with 15-20 HRs per. Along with average to better years from Wright, Davis and Murphy.

Think that makes them competative? Thoughts.

Mets weakest offensive position last year was catcher, and there wasn't even a close 2nd. That is a position where the Mets can really improve from last year.

The Mets always have their "IF'S"...and typically have more than other teams'. Bourn, IMO would have meant 5-10 more wins with his speed, defense, etc. IF Duda can be a 25+ hr guy, IF Santana remains healthy, IF Gee comes back healthy, IF Ike improves his average, IF the bp can just be AVERAGE, IF Niese can have another good season, IF 1 or 2 of our nobody OFers can become good everyday players, etc, etc. I believe that there IS a chance they could be a competitive team...they just need a lot of things to go right.

I think the OF needs to be a little ABOVE average IMO. If we get some good power from Duda (20-25 hr at least), and Cowgill becomes a good defensive CFer who can hit and get on base, then all we really need is a good platoon in RF. That is feasible I suppose...

Philly and the braves have just as many IFS

You are kidding right? I mean I get the Phillies are getting older and that leads to questions. But the Braves, who already had one of the best bull pens in baseball, and strong starters, now have a very solid outfield. To say they have as many if's as the Mets is kidding yourself.

"now have a very solid outfield. "

They didn't have a Solid outfield last year? Bourn 6.0 WAR Heyward 5.5 War and Prado 5.4 WAR combined for a 16.9 WAR last year. That's 3 of the top 10 WARs at any offensive position in the league.

I stand corrected. Still don't understand what "if's" they have.

"I stand corrected. Still don't understand what "if's" they have."

Well they did just lose a player who was a leader in their Clubhouse for well over a decade. Justin Upton is coming off a bad season and his offensive stats outside of Arizona are mediocre. Their major strength last year was their Bullpen and we all know just how inconsistent and up and down bull pens general are.

the problem is that we have to RELY on people just coming out of nowhere and hope that we get good production out of a bunch of minor league signings...sure it COULD happen, but that typically isn't a recipe for success

i think the outfield with a strict platoon system will be better than it was last yr. has to be, with bay and torres gone. a platoon system in cf (niewenhuiss/cowgill), and rf (baxter-valdespin/brown-byrd) should be ok defensively (WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF BROWN, LETS SEE. HE IS HERE FOR HIS POWER POTENTIAL). wouldn't mind adding drew stubbs to the mix, has power, speed good cf d, and can hit lefties, but the price has to be low, say gorski or mchugh. the bigger OF Q too me is duda. can he hit .265 with 25 hr power, or will he be a bust? if everyone produces as you suggest, maybe 80 wins. i figure we have a 70 to 80 win team, so i am figuring 75 barring further moves. 4th place. again.

It all comes down to the bullpen (again). Any team can survive a sub-par outfield if they have the pitching to overcome it. The San Francisco Giants (or for that matter, the 1999-2000 NY Mets) are certainly proof of that.

Hopefully, a deeper rotation and the influx of decent pitching talent throughout the system will mean better options to round out the bullpen. Also, keep your fingers crossed that Lyon, Atchison, Feliciano and Byrdak will prove to be better investments than R. Ramirez, Rauch and Francisco have been. I'm trying to keep my expectations in check, because I've been burned by the Mets' hapless relief corps in the past.

It would be hard for the bullpen to be much worse than they were in 2012, so maybe that's some cause for hope.

"IFS" are why they play the games. Every year, every sport has a surprise team, or two where something unexpectedly comes together, or clicks. An injury, or age, creeps up on a favored team and their dreams quelled. I prefer to be optimistic till it's time not to be. I think we could be a surprise WC contender this year....based on these positive "ifs":
Solid starting rotation, very good infield, improved bullpen, catching and overall hitting and filling 3 voids in the lineup from last year (Bay, Torres and Thole). Replacing those 3 holes is not an "IF"....it is a definite as far as improving this team.

You forgot to add in Mets catching last yr only had 48 RBIs. MLB average for C was 74 RBIs. Between Buck/ Recker/ d'Arnaud they should be able to at least be around average. That adds about 20-25 RBIs right there.


2012 Mets OF...
LF ranked #27 w/ .222 BA & 80 RBI (80 RBI = MLB avg for LF) / SF LF = 72 RBI
CF ranked #23 w/ .247 BA & 59 RBI (70 RBI = MLB avg for CF) / SF CF = 67 RBI
RF ranked #27 w/ .245 BA & 67 RBI (78 RBI = MLB avg for RF) / SF RF = 80 RBI

2012 OF total = 206 RBI (228 RBI = MLB avg for total OF) / SF OF = 219 RBI




Mets were 22 RBIs off the pace to be average OF last season. World Series Champ SF was slightly below avg for OF RBIs. So a winning team can have roughly average OF.

BTW -- SF also had #15 ranked BP w/ 3.56 ERA (average MLB BP).

Yes Scott Hairston is gone. But his offensive numbers were offset by Bay's lack of offense. Bay batted just .122 w/ RISP (.199 OBP w/ RISP -- 6 hits/ 5 walks) in 56 plate appearances. Beyond pathetic. How many gms were lost because Bay couldn't push across at least 1 run?

With 2 OF platoons (say Baxter/ Brown & Kirk/ Cowgill) Mets should be able to generate at least average OF RBIs. Add in average output from catcher & Mets score enough runs to be competitive w/ good SP & average BP (hopefully).

Last years team was competitive till the ASB. Based on first half stats:

1. The rotation is deeper but without Dickey

2. The bullpen is significantly better ( Rauch lost 7 games by June), etc.

3. The infield is better since Ike was a zero through June and Murphy was an adventure as he adjusted to second base

4. Catcher is improved. Buck calls a better game, won't lead the league in passed balls and if he and D'arnaud drive in 50 runs, it will double Thole and co.

5. The outfield will be improved. Same candidates less Bay and Torres. Addition by subtraction. Added several unproven outfielders with potential - Cowgill, Brown .

6. Management willing to add a piece if team is competing

7. This year, reinforcements are on the way - Wheeler, D'Arnaud, Mejia, Familia, Den Decker, and who knows???

Yes, things have to break right. They did last year for 80+ games. If the team had added a key piece, Santana stayed healthy, and the bullpen not undergo a nuclear meltdown, it may have ended differently. There is more depth this year.