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    • 2012 no-decisions
  • To:All
  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart
2012 Mets no-decisions & ERA in those gms:


Santana = 6 ND in 21 total starts / 2.45 ERA

Niese = 8 ND in 30 total starts / 2.70 ERA

Gee = 4 ND in 17 total starts / 3.55 ERA (pitching w/ a numb arm)

Harvey = 2 ND in 10 total starts / 1.38 ERA



Total = 20 ND in 2012



BP had 16 wins & 29 losses last season. Average # of wins for MLB BP is 23 (which is what SF had w/ #15 MLB BP).

With revamped BP you think Mets can win at least 8 of those 20 ND's in 2013?
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • danthemetfan
1) how many did the Mets win of those ND last year? 2) How many other ND did they have? 3) if the BP can not lose 20+ games, then the team should be closer to .500.
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  • 2/11/13
  • wrghtknght
He also intentionally left out any NDs suffered by R.A. Dickey and any other pitcher that had to make a start in place of the regular starting staff.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • danthemetfan
There are two things with ND... Leads blown, and deficits regained. For the Mets there were more leads blown than deficits overcome, but there were some of those too. We seem to say this every year, but if the Pen can improve on last year, they will certainly win a few more close games, which have been a killer the last few seasons.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • gilforhof
I think the key to all of it is the 29 losses by the BP. Clean some of that up and you have at least a competitive year. Of course, its dependent on other factors also. Who had a ND, who didn't doesn't matter as much as what the BP did to win those games or keep the team in the games. Its all last year, the past. What we do with what we have this year is the question. Its a new season, lets go Metsies.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • wrghtknght
Oh, there is more to consider than just the NDs suffered by the starters. However, his information is still grossly inaccurate, as he left out the 7 NDs that Dickey obtained. This is given his number of games started (33), minus the number of games he got a decision in (26, 20-6 record).
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • danthemetfan

Well one could deduce, that if the BP's record was 16-29 (i am actually surprised it wasnt worse), then as a team they had 45 ND. The BP can not get the decision if the starter does, so by definition if the BP is on the hook, one way or another, there is a starter's ND.

29 losses is way too many for the pen, and as I said before, if they could cut it to 20 that should lead to a season closer to .500 for the Mets, of not slightly over.

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  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart
How do we find out what outcomes were of those 2012 NDs (and which gms specifically they were)?


Just realized all 3 of Pelfrey's 2012 starts were NDs w/ 2.29 ERA.

And it turns out Young had 7 NDs in 20 total starts w/ 3.38 ERA in those gms.

So that's another 10 NDs I didn't originally account for. Another poster pointed out BP decisions = 45 (16 - 29) & those are all NDs. That's correct. Should've realized that myself. So Mets BP had 29 losses. Combo of Rauch/ R. Ramirez/ Batista/ Beato/ Acosta accounts for 15 of Mets 29 BP losses. And they're gone now.

Edited 2/11/13   by  metsheart
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart
Didn't "intentionally leave out any NDs suffered by R.A. Dickey and any other pitcher that had to make a start in place of the regular starting staff." Only included pitchers STILL on the team in 2013 (and likely to start again).

I could've included Marcum's TEN NDs from 2012 too. But didn't count him because he wasn't on the team in 2012.

Edited 2/11/13   by  metsheart
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart
"one could deduce, that if the BP's record was 16-29 (i am actually surprised it wasnt worse), then as a team they had 45 ND. The BP can not get the decision if the starter does, so by definition if the BP is on the hook, one way or another, there is a starter's ND."



You're 100% correct. Sorry I didn't realize this myself!

But looking at ERA's of pitchers in those NDs you'd have to think Mets can win at least 8 or 9 more of those gms in 2013.
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  • 2/11/13
  • thagreat1
I wish Mejia would be put in the bp this year instead of starting in the minors waiting for one our starters to get injured
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  • 2/11/13
  • thebobymon

>>With revamped BP you think Mets can win at least 8 of those 20 ND's in 2013?<<

Can they?

Yes.

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • Remember86

Unfortunately, we've seen posts like yours each offseason. "Some of the names in the bullpen changed. We've improved the bullpen. This one and that one are gone. If we had won x amount of the games last year's bullpen blew, we would've contended or we would been a .500 club, etc. etc." And of course, looking at it that way, a definitive improved record from the previous year seems like a realistic idea. However, what this thinking doesn't take into account is that baseball isn't a static sport. By that I mean, just because one stat MAY improve (and let's remember just because we have some new names in the pen, doesn't mean they'll be better until we SEE them over the space of several months), other team stats may not. Who's to say a few key injuries don't occur? That's one of the big things which happened in 2009. We had just gotten Putz and K Rod and boom our problems were solved. As we found out, not so fast. Who's to say players who prospered last season won't have off years this season?

Another thing to consider when talking strictly about the starters and bullpen. Why else did our starters have so many no decisions? Too many games started by pitchers who didn't go deep enough into the game (which was exacerbated by an anemic offense in the second half). That caused an overuse of the bullpen. IF our starters don't go deeper, our bullpen, no matter how well they perform initially, will get fatigued by August. That will very possibly cause more no decisions, more blown saves.

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  • To:All
  • 2/11/13
  • anthony888


How many games did we LOSE, after leading in the 7th?

Clue... Quite a bit

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  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart
"intentionally left out any NDs suffered by R.A. Dickey"



FYI -- Dickey = 8 ND in 33 total starts / 5.52 ERA


Dickey didn't have the knucklball knuckling in those no-decisions.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart
Given that Mets lost THREE projected starters last yr for 1/2 season or more each (Pelfrey, Santana & Gee) it's a good idea to have someone ready to start on minor league level. Injuries happen. Best to prepare for that almost inevitable situation.
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  • 2/11/13
  • brianinwi
When Dickey was "on" he usually didn't leave much opportunity for the bullpen to do anything.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart

Yes these kind of offseason posts have been here before.

But looking at BP additions & subtractions it seems unlikely Mets BP will be as bad as lat yr. Maybe not great. But somewhat improved. At least up to MLB average BP vs 2nd worst (Rockies ranked #30 -- Mets #29).

Factor in improved Mets offense at C & at least 1 OF position (with say platoon of Baxter/ Cowgill vs combo of stats from Bay & Torres) & it would be hard to see how Mets could win LESS gms than 2012. And seems easier to see how Mets could convert at least 8 more NDs from losses to wins. Especially if you see ERAs from 19 of those NDs were under 3.00.

Santana = 6 ND in 21 total starts / 2.45 ERA

Niese = 8 ND in 30 total starts / 2.70 ERA

Gee = 4 ND in 17 total starts / 3.55 ERA (pitching w/ a numb arm)

Harvey = 2 ND in 10 total starts / 1.38 ERA

Pelfrey = 3 ND in 3 starts / 2.29 ERA

Young = 7 ND in 20 total starts / 3.38 ERA

Dickey = 8 ND in 33 total starts / 5.52 ERA

  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • metsheart
Correct. But that poster was insinuating I purposely left out Dickey's NDs because it didn't make the case for improved BP and OFFENSE in 2013 to have more wins than 2012.

What Dickey's 2012 NDs show is that Mets offense stepped up big time. And then BP gave it all back PLUS some. With 5.52 ERA in those gms most of those NDs should've been losses for Dickey.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/11/13
  • brianinwi

Everyone keeps telling me that it's really hard to build a reliable bullpen, because relief pitchers have widely variable performance from year to year. Yet the only evidence for this I've ever heard has always been anecdotal -- J.J. Putz or Ramon Ramirez often come up in NYM conversations as examples of how "you can't predict relievers' performance."

I've always wanted to see some statistical evidence either supporting or contradicting this conclusion. Have there been, or are there now, certain teams who've been relatively successful at putting a quality bullpen together year after year? Similarly, I'd love to see some stats on relief pitchers (particularly non-closers) who've enjoyed consistent success over multiple seasons. Are they really proportionally rarer than consistently good starters or players at other positions?

Maybe I'll pitch the idea to The Hardball Times. I love their detailed longitudinal studies.

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