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    • Top prospect = Future Star?
  • To:All
  • 2/5/13
  • bbjmparis

A while ago I gave you a list of our past #1 draft choices to show that top prospect does NOT equal future star. We had a 90% failure rate. So does everyone else.

I was told, that's wrong. There's a difference between a #1 draft choice, and a top prospect in all of baseball. Those guys have professional experience, and can be better evaluated by scouts.

Okay, here's Baseball America's list of top prospects from 2007. Five years aught to have been enough time to see how they did.

Baseball America's Top 10 prospects for 2007

Daisuke Matsuzaka, rhp, Red Sox
2. Alex Gordon, 3b, Royals
3. Delmon Young, of, Devil
4. Philip Hughes, rhp, Yankees
5. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds
6. Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers
7. Evan Longoria, 3b, Devil Rays
8. Brandon Wood, ss, Angels
9. Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks
10. Andrew Miller, lhp, Tigers

Not really that impressive. Longoria and Upton are the two best, and while both are good, neither is likely to be a Hall of Famer. The prospect crowd here blasted Upton as not that good. The rest range from average to total flop. So, maybe we only have an 80% failure rate.

Top 10 prospect in all of baseball does not equal future star either...but everyone just "knows" TsA, who's #11, is going to be great. Yeah, right, so was Homer Baily. I wonder if Homer had a bad back, gimpy knee, and torn thumb too?


Edited 2/5/13   by  bbjmparis
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  • 2/5/13
  • Gepett0

everyone likes to use the 2007 list bc it was a notoriously horrible year for prospects....but good job, youve managed to post someone that everybody already knows about

heres what it comes down to...you don't know jack sh*t about how to build a team

nearly every good team in baseball was constructed by building a solid farm, identifying a core, and then supplementing that core through trades and FA signings...the mets arent done building their core and you're impatient...its that simple

if they never traded those guys, which you keep b*tching about, you would have a team that continued to be imbalanced and you would never be able to AFFORD to patch the holes...building a team means properly allocating your resources and ensuring that you have solid answers at every position...in other words, you don't know what you're talking about

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  • 2/5/13
  • Gepett0
also, evan longoria and david wright are the only 2 3b in baseball w/ a shot at making the hall
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  • 2/5/13
  • bbjmparis

Yes, I can see how having a few good players would cause "imbalance", on the 2013 Mets. We have so few they just wouldn't fit in.

But, let's do it your way.

HOLES

Catcher
Second Base
SS
LF-RF-CF
4 Starters after Niese
Entire BP.

I call it a hole if you don't have an average quality player at that spot.

Tejada and Murphy are deeply flawed and it's a real stretch to call them average.

So, you got around 16 holes to fill. Tell you what...I'll be generous and call Tejada (can't hit) and Murphy (can't field) average. So that's 14 holes.

Who do we have to fill them? Ah...not much.

Even IF (gigantic if) Harvey and Wheeler are good, and Niese is our #3...who's four and five? Santana is on his last legs, Marcum is a stopgap and a journeyman, Mejia and Familia stink. So who? You think Harvey, Wheeler, Snydergaard and someone else are ALL going to be good major league pitchers? What are you smoking?

What about the BP? Parnell has the best stats, but he can't pitch in close games. Not good for a BP guy. The rest? Guys off the scrapheap, and wannabees who won't be. Right, in addition to all those starters who are ALL going to be great, some other prospects are going to fill up the BP. Wow, doesn't anyone ever flop in your world?

Outfield? Nimmo? DenDenker? Please, they can't hit in the LOW minors. I saw Nimmo...if you think he can play, think again. We saw Kirk N, Doofus Duda, and others. I've seen enough.

So, don't worry. You'll get your wish. A team full of AAA players and prospects. You'll also get year after year of 90 loss teams.

Fred thanks you for your support....well, not really. He thinks you're dumb and can't believe you accept the baloney he spreads, but he's happy you do.

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  • 2/5/13
  • bbjmparis
Unlikely for either. Unless the next five years sees a big upgrade. Good players. not HOF caliber.
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  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89

i love how you only added the top 10 and didn't list the rest

11.Tim Lincecum
12.Chris Young (the hitter)
13.Andrew mccutchen
14.Jay Bruce
15.Troy Tulowitzski
16.Yovani Gallardo
17.Reid Brignac
18.Carlos Gonzalez
19.Andy Laroche
20.Mike Pelfrey
21.Matt Garza
22.Fernando Martinez
23.Adam Miller
24.Clayton Kershaw
25.Billy Butler
26.Ryan Braun
27.Jose Tabata
28.Adam Jones
29.Colby Rasmus
30.Franklin Morales

There is a whole bunch more that you failed to list.
Joey Votto was ranked 43rd
Hunter Pence 38th and so on...

There are a bunch of good players on that list but of course you don't list those because it wouldn't benefit your argument.. lol!!

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Message 548109.7 was deleted
  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89

i also dont get how murphy and tejada are holes. murphy is a solid hitter and tejada well we don't know what we have with him but he has amazing defense. either way there is no way to judge tejada at this point in his career so thats not a hole.

and 4 starters after niese? harvey is a hole? oh ok. gee is far from a hole. hes a solid back end of the rotation pitcher. and santana is a question mark so again to use that as a hole is stupid when you just simply don't know. also dont get how marcum is considered a hole.

you just completely make things up


Edited 2/5/13   by  metsfansince89
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  • 2/5/13
  • Melo15nym

So what the heck is your point? OBVIOUSLY, not every prospect isn't going to live up to their potential. That is why you need to stockpile.

What is your great plan?

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  • 2/5/13
  • Melo15nym

"I saw Nimmo...if you think he can play, think again."

Hahahahah every scout raved about Nimmo last year but you say he can't play? Thanks genius. What team do you work for?

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Message 548109.11 was deleted
  • 2/5/13
  • jgrangers2

Delve deeper into that list and here's what you find:

11. Tim Lincecum
13. Andrew McCutchen
14. Jay Bruce
15. Troy Tulowitzki
16. Yovani Gallardo
18. Carlos Gonzalez
21. Matt Garza
24. Clayton Kershaw
25. Billy Butler
26. Ryan Braun
28. Adam Jones
33. Jacoby Ellsbury
38. Hunter Pence
43. Joey Votto

I could keep going, but you get the point. Nobody is trying to convince you that every prospect becomes a star. What we're pointing out is that a very high percentage of stars appear on these lists at one point or another.

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  • 2/5/13
  • Gepett0

and w/ that, im done

if you think tda harvey and wheeler are holes, then you're beyond stupid and there is no reason to continue this conversation

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  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89

what it pretty much comes down to is if you have a top 50 prospect you have about a 40-50% chance of him being a solid MLB player and we got two in that spot. we had 3 back in 07 ( i think) and they all were busts but that was under omar.

another thing is that they aren't even our prospects. they are from other teams which makes me feel they will pan out even more


Edited 2/5/13   by  metsfansince89
Edited 2/5/13   by  metsfansince89
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • viper99
No A-roid?
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • bbjmparis
Like #22?
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89
yes like i said, about half will be busts and half will turn in to something. we happened to be on the wrong end of it every time with our guys. we have a new GM now so we'll see how he does
  • Reply to this Message
  • 2/5/13
  • bbjmparis

By the way...the point was that just because someone is a TOP prospect, it doesn't nean you're going to be a star. If those LESSER prospects turned out to be the better players, what does that say about being a TOP prospect? It says, that the scouts are often wrong, that it's all gueswork and opinion, and doesn't mean that much. So why gush over a top prospect if #?? may well be better?

Then, there is the Immortal #22

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  • 2/5/13
  • metsfansince89
it works both ways. you can't say these guys are sure things and will pan out but you also can't say they are going to be busts either. thats why you have to wait and see. nobody is saying these guys are 100% sure things. we are just staying optimistic because we have a bunch of guys that are highly regarded throughout baseball. that gives us a lot of hope
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  • 2/5/13
  • _BigNick

Fails:

1. Looking at one year.
2. Calling Longoria "good."
3. Defining players by whether they're HOFers. Is Dickey a HOFer? No. I hope you aren't complaining that he was traded.
4. You don't know the definition of "average" in baseball.

Here's an actual study, and while it is not end-all and does not include anything, it makes your methods look absolutely ludicrous.

http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects


"
About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.
Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.
About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.
About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.
About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%)
About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)
The success rate of prospects (both position player and pitchers) is nearly flat and relatively undifferentiated for players ranked 41-100, and especially those ranked 61-100.
Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars. Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars.
Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past.
"

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543845/Prospect_Success_by_Position_medium.png
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543833/Quintile_Pos_Player_Table_medium.png
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543809/Decile_Pos_Players_Table2_medium.png

<Now fuck off.

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