This is pretty cool, though they certainly arent the first to do it
AA is creating a community prospect list where all the readers vote on each top prospect slot to create a consensus top list...
right now they are currently voting on the #6 overall prospect
right now the list looks like this:
Zach WheelerTDANoah SyndergaardWilmer FloresMichael Fulmer
w/ Nimmo looking like he will take the 6th spot w/ 46% of the vote
its looking like #7 will come out of Familia, Tapia, and Montero, as each has 13-18% of the remaining vote
Cechhini, Mateo, A. Rodriguez, and Den Dekker round out the current pole
the poll fo #7 will be up tomorrow i think and will consist of all of those guys plus one more, decided by fans voicing their opinion in the comment section on who they feel should be added....right now its looking like plawecki will be added to the pole
my prediction is that the top 10 will end up looking like:
Wheeler, TDA, Noah, Flores, Fulmer, Nimmo, Familia, Montero, Tapia, Cecchini....if you switch familia and montero, thats probably about how i would vote, too....
do you think hes a better prospect than any of the 5 that got ranked ahead of him?
personally, i think the only one that is debateable is fulmer...and that was reflected in the voting as he gave him a run for his money....but right now, fulmer had success at A+ at the same age that nimmo put up a raw (but still pretty impressive) showing in A-....i think its fair to rank him one spot ahead, though i agree that they are pretty close bc nimmo has a bit more upside
i gotta disagree
nimmo has a ton of upside but there is no way that he ranks about TDA....right now, he just hasnt shown enough speed or the ability to hit lefties and strikes out too much to be ranked that high when he is that far away....had he not shown any of those flaws in his game, then maybe....but right now, imo, he is either 5th or 6th, behind TDA, Wheeler, Syndergaard, & even flores....not to say that he can't be a better player than all 4 of them....but bc of how raw he is, its insane to rank him above those 4 (and at the very least the top 3)and i am very high on nimmo too....one of the highest on this board i would say
Nimmo has the intelligence to adjust really quick which he did last season. He started out slow and then ended up dominating towards the end. He can figure out how to hit lefties eventually if he wants to. He can do whatever he wants I think.
Also, they had him focusing on taking pitches and working counts mainly last season, which he totally mastered. His walk rates were phenomenal. In one season he mastered that part of his game.
i like tapia but to me hes actually lower than at least montero and possibly even familia
the reason is that it will be very difficult for tapia to develop a breaking pitch bc of his delivery....he has a deceptive delivery but he can't throw a breaking pitch from his arm slot...so right now, when he throws a curve or slider, he has to change his delivery slightly, which telegraphs that the pitch is coming
i suppose he coud throw a 4 seam, 2 seam, split, change up combo but i don't know that that will make him a formidable starting pitcher....so that is an uphill battle for him, though his floor is insanely high as a late inning reliever...honestly, right now, he could potentially be our best option at closer even though hes never pitched above a ball...that is how good that fastball/change up comb already is
montero, though none of his pitches are quite as electric and he has a slender build, actually has a significantly better shot at remaining a starting pitcher bc he currently has 4 pitches that he can spot for strikes, all of which would be at least major league average pitches....hes essentially got an above average fastball, a plus change up, and 2 average to above average breaking pitches, all of which he can spot with plus control that has a chance of being plus plus...he will never be an ace (like tapia could be) but that speaks well of his chances to become a successful starting pitcher at the major league level
i think you can make a case for tapia over familia bc he has better command of his fastball/changeup combo but familia is so close to major league ready that i think its close
in retrospect, this is my top ten:
wheelertdasyndergaardfloresfulmer/nimmonimmo/fulmer (honestly, to me these two are basically interchangeable)monterotapiafamiliacecchini
1) actually he started slow, got hot, then cooled down and finished the season in a slump...
2) I am not doubting that he will learn to hit lefties...but i will also wait until he shows the ability to do so to say w/ absolute certainty that he can
3)they didnt have him working on his batters eye - he came to the league w/ that eye already established....in fact, his hitting coaches were working to get him to be more aggressive bc, w/ the more generous low minors strike zones, he was taking too many pitches that, although in reality balls, were being called strikes by the umpires... but yes, he has a very advanced approach at the plate that should help him at the higher levels
i really like nimmo....you don't need to sell me on him...i think he has the potential to be a .300/.400/.550-600 guy w/ 25+ hrs while playing a very good cf....but that is his ceiling...we'll see if he ever gets there....but right now, his floor is pretty low...i think hes a major leaguer assuming he doesnt have some sort of debilitating injury but i do think his floor is more of a 4th of who struggles to hit for a high enough average to be a platoon player but plays a solid enough of to be kind of a AAAA/ bench guy w/ some pop from the left side
we just wont know for a number of years...but step one is learning to hit lefties and proving that he can stay in center, while working on cutting down his K's
montero projects as a starter, not a middle reliever
he has at least 3 average to above average pitches (and his changeup is a plus pitch)...his curve, ive read, projects as average at best and hes relying more heavily on the slider... and, while he has a small build at 6' 170, his delivery is extremely easy and fluid
most scouts have said he has a very solid shot at being a mid rotation starter...that is more valuable than a late inning reliever
you are totally undervaluing montero
"1) actually he started slow, got hot, then cooled down and finished the season in a slump..."
Actually no he didn't. He hit .270/.361/.435 in July and .266/.400/.426 in August. He struggled in September, but only over 17 AB's.
Taking the last 3 months as a whole he finished very strong. And those numbers in the NYPenn League are phenomenal. It's a major pitchers league.
For me his floor is as an average major leaguer. Barring injuries, I can't imagine he won't figure out how to at least be average in the major leagues.
I don't think his ceiling is as great as you say, (.300/.400/.550-600 guy w/ 25+ hrs while playing a very good cf), that's otherworldly, but I think he can be a slightly above average to above average major leaguer with flashes of elite play.
nah thats his ceiling
he has plus power for a kid his age and he has plus plate discipline....that speaks to the 25 dingers and the 400 obp...the biggest stretch would be his average....and while, yes, it is unlikely he is a 300 hitter and more likely that hes a 275-285 hitter at best, he does have quick bat speed and a good eye and scouts raved about his hit tool coming into the league....so i dont think its out of the question
will he reach that ceiling? probably not...but its still there bc of the strength of his tools
I don't think he has that much raw power. .550 to .600 slugging? That's elite level plus plus power which only guys like Stanton have. Nimmo is nowhere near that realm.
I think in a typical season he can hit .280/.370/.440 and in a prime year .295/.388/.460. I don't think he'll ever get to .300/.400/.600.
600 was an overshoot true
it probably should have just been 500
i would say 300/400/500 is actually probably exactly his ceiling
again, i don't necessarily think most players will ever reach their ceiling so its not like im saying thats what nimmo WILL be...i think what you list is more than reasonable...this is just the upper end of what his tools could potentially take him to
Nimmo also has intangible factors that I like. A competitive nature, a drive to succeed, a true desire to win. A need to be on top. Those are the guys that make it. You couple that with decent athletic skills, and you have an exceptional player.