I'm going to simplify the possibility of a WC spot without going into elaborate stat predictions, since the majority of the ones listed are far fetched, IMO.
Consider how strong the Mets played last season prior to their collapse after the All Star Break with a team that most likely played over their heads. Now consider that a red hot Wright pretty much carried the team offensively (with lesser contributions from Tejada and Murphy), since Ike, Duda, Bay, etc. did little, and the starting pitching was solid the first half. (Mets were 43-36 by the end of June - 7 games above .500). The bullpen was consistently lousy. So what needs to happen is:
- Wright will not carry the team again with a career year performance the 1st half. So deduct production from Wright compared to last year. BUT, if he's at least solid and consistent in the .300 range with his usual/better power and RBI chances AND:
- Ike and Duda will not struggle as poorly as they did last year 1st half. For now, I'll assume that both will be improved (more so with Ike), hopefully supplying whatever additional production we lose with Wright compared to 2012.
- Mets lose starting pitching production due to Dickey gone. (One wonders how many games the Mets might have lost in 2012 if he wasn't in the rotation, as they seemed to figure out how to win games when he was on the mound, compared to other starters). However, they (presumably) gain back Gee, Harvey (late addition in 2012), and possibly Santana, with (Wheeler arriving after All Star break?). If the rotation can at least stay respectable we can stay in the hunt IF:
- bullpen HAS to be improved from 2012. This might just be the biggest assumption here.
So, in summary: improved consistent performances from Ike, Duda, bullpen, while other positions have to at least remain respectable. (Tejada, Murph, rotation). Thus, if someone's struggling, others need to pick up the slack to compensate so it's not all or nothing when someone goes down or slumps. Lots of assumptions, obviously, but this team DID compete last year pre-All Star break and despite several players not contributing.