In no way is this post claiming that this will happen. I say the WC spot because the Nats are literally filthy good. Ok, so here we go:
Catcher: Buck: 7 Hrs 31 Rbi 245 avg (Buck is much better than anything we have had simply because he can put the ball out of the park, these numbers arent a full season as he will give way to D'Arnaud in May)D'Arnaud: 15 hr 55 rbi 295 avg
First Base: Davis: 36hr 112rbi 285 avgSecond Base: Murphy: 12hr 80rbi 305 avgShort Stop: Tejada: 4hr 52rbi 290 avg Third Base: David Wright: 29 hr 115rbi 309 avg
OutFieldCowgill: 13hr 56rbi 280 avgDuda: 26hr 102rbi 278avgBrown: 11hr 48rbi 270avgBaxter: 9hr 51rbi 280avgNuiwenheis(SP): 16hr 72rbi 282avgHairston?: 21hr 65rbi 275avg
Pitching:Santana: 15-7 3.21 eraHarvey: 14-8 2.90 eraNiese: 16-8 3.15 eraGee: 13-9 4.00 eraSP + Wheeler in August: 10-6 4.00 eraBullpen (Ugh):Francisco: 3.00 era 35 savesParnell: 2.70 eraByrdak: 2.70 era (Lefties hit .200 against)Famila: 3.00 eraMejia (maybe start) 3.2 era
This does not include any acquisitions. Some of these stats seem impossible, some are reasonable. Again I dont think these things will happen but its what im rooting for. Im a realist and I know this is going to be a long year but im also a diehard and praying for a miracle. I DO think 2014 is going to be a legit contending year
I think your ERA for Francisco, and power numbers for Murphy, Brown, Duda, and Nieuwenhuis are completely unrealistic. Even if everything else you project comes to pass (which I admit is not outside the range of possibility), that's probably not enough to make the playoffs.
Nats are unreal, the Phillies' starting pitchers may have enough in the tank for one more serious run, and the Braves are a very competitive team. That's just in the East.
But hey, hope is free. Miracles do happen in sports.
Let's Go Mets!
I'm going to simplify the possibility of a WC spot without going into elaborate stat predictions, since the majority of the ones listed are far fetched, IMO.
Consider how strong the Mets played last season prior to their collapse after the All Star Break with a team that most likely played over their heads. Now consider that a red hot Wright pretty much carried the team offensively (with lesser contributions from Tejada and Murphy), since Ike, Duda, Bay, etc. did little, and the starting pitching was solid the first half. (Mets were 43-36 by the end of June - 7 games above .500). The bullpen was consistently lousy. So what needs to happen is:
- Wright will not carry the team again with a career year performance the 1st half. So deduct production from Wright compared to last year. BUT, if he's at least solid and consistent in the .300 range with his usual/better power and RBI chances AND:
- Ike and Duda will not struggle as poorly as they did last year 1st half. For now, I'll assume that both will be improved (more so with Ike), hopefully supplying whatever additional production we lose with Wright compared to 2012.
- Mets lose starting pitching production due to Dickey gone. (One wonders how many games the Mets might have lost in 2012 if he wasn't in the rotation, as they seemed to figure out how to win games when he was on the mound, compared to other starters). However, they (presumably) gain back Gee, Harvey (late addition in 2012), and possibly Santana, with (Wheeler arriving after All Star break?). If the rotation can at least stay respectable we can stay in the hunt IF:
- bullpen HAS to be improved from 2012. This might just be the biggest assumption here.
So, in summary: improved consistent performances from Ike, Duda, bullpen, while other positions have to at least remain respectable. (Tejada, Murph, rotation). Thus, if someone's struggling, others need to pick up the slack to compensate so it's not all or nothing when someone goes down or slumps. Lots of assumptions, obviously, but this team DID compete last year pre-All Star break and despite several players not contributing.
Just totaled it up and that is 839 RBI between 12 players, the most RBI any entire team had last year was 780.
Remove the pitchers records and just go by the ERA and the offensive stats, if all that happens forget the WC and forget the Division, Mets would be challenging the 2001 Mariners record of 116 wins.
"So why aren't you calling this guy clueless."
Because he starts off his post by saying.
"In no way is this post claiming that this will happen."
I don't think any of the individual stats he posted are impossible or even improbable, the likelihood of all of them happening though is very improbable.
The point I disagreed with was in this fictional scenario where all those things came to fruition they would be MUCH better than a WC team.