"That's all the Mets can ask for here. As they rebuild realistically towards 2014-16, their success will be dependent on the nucleus of David Wright, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores, assuming they can find a place to play him. They've now added d'Arnaud and Syndergaard to that collection, giving them more potential impact players and thus a better chance of having enough of them work out to once again become a competitive team."
There was also another side to that article:
"Trades are hard enough to gauge right when they happen when we know exactly what's been exchanged. Of course, that doesnt stop us from trying anyway. When prospects enter the fold, it gets even more difficult to judge given the uncertain nature that makes them prospects and not players."
"So in the attempt to gauge how the Mets and Blue Jays did in their deal for R.A. Dickey, which will ultimately be determined by the next three years of Dickey and the careers of Travis d'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard and Wuilmer Becerra, I instead care more about the values of the players right now."
"So your opinion of this trade really depends on what you think about the future of Dickey. Is he the Cy Young Award winner he was in 2012 or is he going to go back to being the solid but not dominant starter he was in 2010-11? How will he age, like a knuckleballer or like a traditional pitcher? And how does the fact that he throws his knuckleballer harder than most affect that last question? How will his knuckleball work indoors?
d'Arnaud, the prospect we'll get the quickest answer on, also comes with some questions - more so than most prospects so close to the majors. While the general consensus is that he's the best catching prospect in the game and is essentially major league ready, that doesn't mean he's necessarily a star."
While he seems to agree that the Mets made a good trade, he also sees that it could be a bust to either side. It isn't such a "no-brainer" as some want to believe.
>> While he seems to agree that the Mets made a good trade, he also sees that it could be a bust to either side. It isn't such a "no-brainer" as some want to believe.
Anytime you trade for a player or sign a FA it's a gamble. There are no absolutes in this game. D'arnud is the #1 rated catching prospect in MLB. I believe in the 2012 prospect ranking he's in the top ten. Maybe he becomes the stud that some think he can be remains to be seen. Many scouts project Syndergaard to be a top of the rotation pitcher. Whether he will be remains to be seen. The strength of the Mets farm system is in pitching. They have a huge hole both on the ML and minor league levels at the catching position. Sandy addressed that with D'arnud. This trade could be good for both teams. One may win and one may lose. It could turn out to be a bust for both teams. When your talking about prospects,s before any of that can be established it take time.
I've never tried to imply that there weren't risks involved. There are risks on all sides -- maybe 2013 is the year that Dickey's 39-year old body has enough and he completely breaks down. Maybe Dickey falls apart, D'Arnaud's knee gives out for good, and neither Syndegaard nor Becerra ever amount to anything.
And certainly, gambling on any one prospect panning out is a risk. The way to minimize that risk is not to put all your eggs in one basket. Don't depend (like Minaya did) on one or two high-profile, prospects becoming superstars. Instead, (as Alderson is doing) acquire lots of high-ceiling prospects, increasing your odds that some of them will become major league contributors in the future. Sandy just added three such high-ceiling prospects, at the expense of Dickey and two mediocre catchers.
Make trades like that every time, and you will win more often than you lose.
'While he seems to agree that the Mets made a good trade, he also sees that it could be a bust to either side. It isn't such a "no-brainer" as some want to believe.'
No, it's still a no-brainer.
Dickey would help this team accomplish ZIP in the next three years. There was literally no purpose to resigning him... Unless you want to trot out the same 74 win team, while the rest of the division (minus the Marlins) is better. Because that makes sense how?