"The Mets really should spend most of that to keep RA, "
Dickey is already signed for this year. What he gets has nothing to do with us getting to 100M
You say this:
This isn't our year.
And then say this:
It's essential we keep RA.
Seems a little contradicting to me. If we are "building for the future" wouldn't trading Dickey for top prospects HELP that? If Dickey can bring back the right package, you HAVE to do it. If not, then you extend him.
Not a contradiction, not really, sorry if it seems so.
We need to continue building and it starts with the pitching staff. Wheeler and harvey are just about there, but still not a guarantee. At least one of these guys is going to be good! (I hope both)Looking ahead to the deadline (perhaps trading Johan) to improve defense at 2B, and further ahead to 2014 to fill out the roster. A lot of money comes off the books.
I am predicting that at least one of our outfielders Den Dekker, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Baxter, will have an outstanding year, which is reasonable to assume. So we go into 2014 with less need than we have now.
I am for retaining RA, and continue building in other areas. We have time for that. Rome wasn't built in a day, but we can do it in a year.
you can't count on dickey to be what he was this year 2-3 years down the road....yes hes a knuckleballer....but no knuckleballer in history has ever thrown as high a pct of fastballs or tossed the knuckler as hard as dickey....thats what makes him so good....also he has no ucl and was pitching professionally for over 10 years before he even started throwing the knuckleball
sure, he might pitch until hes 46 but he could also break down by 40
mets "flexibilty at the deadline" translation...
"maybe next year,maybe the year after,maybe not at all"
probably not a hard slider but do you know how you throw a knuckle ball that fast? armspeed
and dickey throws his fastball 15 % of the time...thats more like 15-20 per game, not 3 or 4....check fangraphs if you dont believe me...and he threw it in the mid 80s...to give you a basis of comparison, wakefield threw his on average about 10% of the time and threw it in the low 70s
and you're right, no one has EVER thrown the hard knuckler so there is virtually no way of knowing what will happen to him....that is the point
he also has no ucl and was a traditional pitcher until around the age of 30, meaning he already had a lot of wear and tear on that arm
i just said that dickey could very well pitch till he is near 50....he wouldnt be the first knuckleballer to do it...and he loooks to be in pretty good shape....but, at the same time, bc there is no basis for comparison so you can't just say "oh dickey will pitch forever" bc you don't know that...so COMMON SENSE tells you that GUARANTEEING 5+ years for a pitcher that you can not come close to predicting how he will age over the next few years given the lack of comparable players in history....alll this means that market value for a guy like dickey is a 2-3 year extension on what he already is set to earn....NO TEAM would go beyond that....now, the value of those 2-3 years is really what is on the table....even dickey was never asking for more that 4 years overall
Looks like bad on the fastball. I did not check the fangraph, (and have not checked it yet) and just made my best guess. I have the impression that Dickey relies more on the fastball when there's a control problem (has to throw a strike) and/or a problem with a nail, much less when the knuckle is working. I agree that there's a 3 year window of lower risk. After that the risk goes way up. As you said, maybe he will pitch until he's 50. At this point, anything beyond 3 years is irrelevant, it's wait and see.
Dickey has added a wicked changeup with late movement. He introduced it late last season.