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    • LETS LOOK AT POTENTIAL ASSUMING NO REAL MOVES
  • To:All
  • 12/12/12
  • saztastic2012

I still think they will make a few FA moves and will be very unhappy if they dont but lets just say they go all in house, The dead weight is gone and what is left

Our rotation is solid and should be even better with a full season of Harvey, The return of Gee and Santana another year removed from surgery,

The pen was already improved once they moved the trash out and we saw some good inhouse options so hopefully they can feild a productive pen, Not a sure thing but hopefully.

Now for the offense,

1st we should get more from Ike since he is recovered from VF and he had a very good year now picture what he can do when healthy and hitting .280?

2Nd Murph continues to be a .300 hitter with little pop but tons of doubles and you need that from your number two hitter

SS I think it is fair to say tejada is the real deal and at his young age will only get better

3RD D Wright wont have the same kind of first half but hopefully he wont also have the same kind of second half, Just be D Wright.

LF Duda will provide better production then we got from Bay, Duda provided 15 HRS and 15 doubles with 57 RBI in 401 ABS, If he can be a little more like the first half guy and provide us with 25 HRS, 90 RBI that is major im provment, If he just repeted his production from last year he projects to 22 HRS and 85 RBI over 600 ABS, He just needs to be consistant.

CF Newie? He was leading all rookies but fell into a deep slump, Maybe he can be the guy? In 282 ABS he gave us 40 runs, 28 RBI and 7 HRS over 600 ABS maybe we see 85 Runs, 60 RBI and 15 HRS? Maybe Hairston comes back and takes a bigger role? Either way it is hard to picture this team getting less production from CF,

RF Could Turner be an option? How about Baxter? Turner and Baxter were about the same, Both hitting in the mid .260 both with 170 Plus ABS Turner 20 runs 19 RBI Baxter 26/17 so they projected out we might see 80 runs and 77 RBI from Turner and 90 Runs with 60 RBI from Baxter, Numbers I would take.

AS for Catcher if we dont bring someone in and I still would like them to get AJ we can hope Thole bounces back to 2011 form in 344 ABS Thole hit .268 with 40 RBI and in 2010 in 202 ABS hit .277 so there is reason for hope there.

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  • 12/12/12
  • thebobymon

4th place with same roster, no way are we going to catch the Nats, Braves, or Phillies, unless they all have injuries to everyone. Its possible we can squeak into 3rd sure, but unlikely.

The FO knows this.

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  • 12/12/12
  • saztastic2012
I disagree but that is fine, I see our rotation as one of the best, Hope our pen can be good and if we can get decent production from RF, LF, CF and C we will be in good shape
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  • 12/12/12
  • elsid1986
Funny, you said the same thing last year.
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  • 12/12/12
  • MetObserver
And for 1/2 a year he was not wrong. All we need is a full year of really good baseball. No likely to happen but there is a chance.
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  • 12/12/12
  • Kranesback
We have a decent shot at not losing 100 games
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  • 12/12/12
  • elsid1986

"And for 1/2 a year he was not wrong" Yea well for half a year he was very wrong.

"All we need is a full year of really good baseball" It can happen? Exactly how?

Do you really think this team can be close to competitive with an outfield combination of Duda, Kirk, Baxter and Turner? Forgetting the fact that Turner has never played the outfield and Duda looks like he would have trouble playing outfield on my son's little league team. Or how about the fact they do not have a legitimate ML catcher?

Also please remember that even Sandy has said this team needs "an infusion of talent".

So this team is what it is, another 70-75 win team and a 4th place finish.

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  • 12/13/12
  • Remember86
There's a reason the Mets were decent for only one half of the season (quite notably the FIRST half). They weren't that good of a team. The history of baseball is filled with teams like the 2012 Mets. Start off surprisingly well, but when the true contenders start to get it going, the true pretenders begin to show themselves. And so the Mets did last year. They plummeted, as their injuries started to add up, and as teams like the Braves, Nationals and Cardinals started playing to their true potential. The Mets hit their wall in mid-June or so. That's what mediocre teams do. Just like some here "project" numbers for unproven players based on one half of a season, Mets management can't approach this offseason as though the first half of 2012 will replay itself not just during the first half of 2013 but during the second half as well. If the Wilpons and Alderson are thinking IF Santana this and IF Gee that and now that Bay is gone THIS etc. etc., we may end up being WORSE than last season. Wright had an unreal first half. Dickey won a Cy Young Award. Santana was lights out for the first two months. Can we expect that kind of lightening to strike twice? Of course not. And as far as "potential" is concerned. I think Ike has the "potential" to be better than he was last year. I think Niese has the "potential" to be better. And I base that on things we've seen enough evidence of to think they could improve on 2012. However, there are too many Mets who don't have the kind of potential, speaking realistically (not pie in the sky), which would make most believe we have inhouse a way to contend for a full year next season. A few months ago Alderson made it appear he realized a new influx of talent was needed. He needs to follow up and act on those thoughts. He was right.

Edited 12/13/12   by  Remember86
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  • 12/13/12
  • 86kid

>>>"4th place with same roster, no way are we going to catch the Nats, Braves, or Phillies, unless they all have injuries to everyone. Its possible we can squeak into 3rd sure, but unlikely. The FO knows this."<<<

I can't agrue with any of that. I agree.
2013 has to be looked at as another transitional year.
We need to move Dickey and get a couple more high end kids in these holes. It is right time to do it, and to let this young roster grow together.


Edited 12/13/12   by  86kid
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  • 12/13/12
  • PrayedforBay

Wow sounds great, lets see what happens... again.

Anyway, Kirk is not an everyday player. His splits vs lefties are awful just as they were with him in the minors. The league figured him out relatively quick. He is a bench player, but is okay defensively as an outfielder.

Thole is a backup and needs to be used like a backup to get the best utilization out of him. His poor defense also doesn't justify him playing everyday.

I'm okay with the infield other than catcher, but where does this optimism come from with regards to the bullpen? Trash is still there with no new signings to replace anybody. 0 accountability thus far on that end.

We all better hope Harvey lives up to the hype and can repeat his limited success out over the course of a full season.

Turner would make an awful addition to the outfield. He is a utility infielder that played over his head 2 years ago. Baxter is nothing special, but they may have to use him. This is a really thin lineup that needs everything to fall into place with 0 injuries. So no, we have no reason to be optimistic.


Edited 12/13/12   by  PrayedforBay
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  • 12/13/12
  • KLake409
Nieuwenhuis swing is too long the LH pitchers got him first throwing him high and outside and striking him out but then the RH pitchers started doing it too and striking him out too (that's why they finally had to send him down to AAA instead of just platoon him),
I hope they can get him to shorten his swing so he won't strike out so much (or atleast they could get him to shorten his swing when he's got 2 strikes on him) anyway it's such a simple thing you'd think any decent hitting coach would see it and get him to fix it (if he wants to be a MLB player).
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  • 12/13/12
  • knarf0516
This may be oversimplifying, but here's my take:
The Mets won 74 games and finished in 4th place last year.
The three teams which finished ahead of the Mets have all made significant improvements, while the Mets have not.
I don't expect to see 100 losses, but I don't see where anything more than last year's 74 wins is coming from.

Edited 12/13/12   by  knarf0516
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  • 12/13/12
  • PrayedforBay

Well having played baseball, its not the easiest thing to get someone to change their swing. I'm sure its been mentioned to him, but also understand that he got to the major leagues by using a certain approach. It's a tall order asking someone to fundamentally change what they did to get to where they are in the first place.

He has to be willing to do it; can't forget that part of it.

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  • 12/13/12
  • bbyjean616
As you look at the potential that the mets have to improve from last year, youre omitting one major part of the equation. the Braves and the Phillies made significant imrpovements from last year and we made NONE. So not only is our team basically the same, the other teams are better
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  • 12/13/12
  • metsheart

"The three teams which finished ahead of the Mets have all made significant improvements, while the Mets have not"



First of all -- offseason's not over yet!!

Second -- just because ON PAPER teams look like they'll be good doesn't make it so. And just because it looks like team won't be competitive doesn't necessarily make it so either.

See SI's 2012 pre-season predictions:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/03/28/si.mlb.2012.preview/index.html


Marlins made "significant" improvements going into 2012. Phillies pitching was supposed to be lights out & still "the team to beat." Nats supposed to finish 3rd. Braves supposed to finish in 4th place just about .500.

In other pre-season predictions...

Angels made so many great additions they were a slam-dunk for the division. Going all the way & win WS!!

White Sox picked to finish last. Well below .500.

Orioles picked to finish last. Well below .500.

Red Sox were going to be competitive w/ over 90 wins.




How'd those predictions work out???

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  • 12/13/12
  • Matt H

I did decently well with my NL East prediction last year

I had:

Nationals
Braves
Mets
Phillies (For a while, they looked terrible too)
Marlins

Definitely did predict the Angels to win the West, was surprisingly wrong. Did have Oakland second though ahead of Texas. Had the Red's to win the central and Tigers to win the central too.

But predictions are just predictions. I still don't see the Met's better then the Nationals, Braves, and Phillies. Phillies could still easily fall apart with the team they have, same with the Braves really. I just see the Nationals taking 1st place easily.

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  • 12/13/12
  • metsheart
Where'd you have Orioles? Red Sox?

Yeah -- predictions are just predictions. Sometimes teams surprise everyone. There are examples of that just about every season.

If Mets get BP to just middle of the pack vs bottom of the barrel will make a HUGE difference. 29 BP losses this past season!! 19 BS!! Cut those losses down of winnable gms by just 25% (7 more wins) & Mets are .500. Like I said -- just adding minimal offense then gets Mets in thick of WC hunt (at least).
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  • 12/13/12
  • shawnfrompa

And for 1/2 a year he was not wrong.

--> The FINAL record is all that matters and he really could not have been more wrong about the team. He does not make predictions, he makes wishes. And his problem is he constantly tries to validate how and why his wishes ARE going to come true with complete rubbish.

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  • 12/13/12
  • metsheart
Mets 1st 1/2 included Santana pitching VERY well & Gee pitching pretty well despite having a numb arm (blood clot).

Mets 2nd 1/2 had Hefner/ McHugh (Batista had couple too) starting bunch of games after Gee & Santana went down. Santana's last 5 starts before going on DL he had 15.43 ERA. BIG difference from 1st 1/2 on SP front. Add BP injuries -- Byrdak going down, FF & R. Ramirez w/ DL stints. Tough to win w/ so many pitching injuries!!

Mets BP 2nd worst in majors. SF had #15 BP (of 30 teams). SF scored 58 LESS regular season runs than STL. But beat STL in NLCS & went on to win WS. If Mets can get to middle of the pack vs rock-bottom BP & upgrade bottom OF & C offense to AVERAGE that should put Mets in WC contention (at least).

Winning is MUCH more about pitching than offense!!!
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