If our roster remains unchanged going into 2012 (as Alderson recently stated), RA will probably go around 15-10 or so at best.

RA split stats in 2012:

First Half 12-1 2.40
Second Half 8-5 3.09

In the first half of 2012 the Mets overplayed, had some luck, very timely hitting and scored some runs. I would not expect this to happen again in 2013. I think the second half (.238 team avg) is more of an indication of what we currently have in our offense. And not to mention our bullpen was ranked dead last in baseball (4.56 ERA from 7th inning on)

It's true that without significant changes Dickey could pitch exactly like his did in 2012 and not reach 15 wins

And if the youngsters in the pen are much better? If Davis hits better all year? We can successfully replace Bay's numbers in the outfield (that is a joke)? I can see the team hitting at a .259 level all year and if R.A. keeps a mid to high 2 era I don't see why he can't have another great year. Maybe not 20 wins but with a healthy year I see him at least at 16-18 wins.

I can see RA win 16-17 wins this season if and only if he gets run support and the bullpen doesn't blow the leads.

he never said unchanged he said similar which three different/ New hitters would be very simliar to what we ended 2012 with, I mean 22 of the 25 man roster would be back, But What a difference 3 new hitters could have.

16 wins with an ERA around 3 would still be a great season.