He's young and he has a cheap contract. He's coming off a strong season. I'd unload him right now for a couple of high upside prospects.
I'd wait on Dickey. Wait until the deadline next year. If he produces again next season his stock will be much higher. He's still a bit of an unknown gamble right now and that reduces his value.
>>>"That is the Stupidest thing I've ever heard."<<<
I wouldn't have put it as strongly as you did, but I agree.
Trading Neise makes little sense to me. He's young and signed to a cheap contract. We are building this team around pitching, and between Harvey, Wheeler and Neise, we might have the makings of a wonderful front three for years. Plus I doubt you'd get two top teir prospects for Neise anyway, and that would be the only reason for such a trade to begin with.
Then the idea of holding unto Dickey, unsigned, into the season, is absurd to me. Dickey is coming off a 20 win season. His stock is likely as high as it's ever going to be. Even if it wasn't, the idea of risking a performance drop, or injury, in the the first half, isn't worth it. You either extend Dickey, or you trade him now. The Mets are in no position to gamble into July on such a good trading chip.
As well, my understanding of the new basebal rule regarding draft compensation is... if you'd don't trade your pending free agent in the off-season, then the team trading for him in July isn't entitled to draft compensation picks. So how can his value possiblly be any higher July than it is now ? Teams are going to be much less likely to give up two top teir prospects if they aren't going to have the protection of draft compensation picks if Dickey walks on them.
Also, Dickey isn't something of an "unknown" as the OP says. It not like Dickey came out of nowhere and had a great year. He has been pitching front end of rotation quality baseball for several years now. This 20 win season is just the apex of that. He may never repeat this year's performance, but teams recognize him as a quality veteran pitcher.
The OP had this all backwards in my view. You don't trade Neise. You hang unto him. You don't hold unto Dickey until July, risking a possible huge drop in value. You trade him now.
Yeah, I agree. I'd only trade him if I could get 1 high upside prospect (top 15 prospect in baseball) and another top 50 prospect with another tier B prospect. Otherwise it makes no sense to trade him.
If Sandy can get Wheeler for Beltran then he should also be able to get something elite for Niese as well.
I don't see anybody giving up three "top flight" prospects for Neise, and mind you, I have been Neise fan since day one.
But I guess it depends on how you personall define "top flight"
I don't think anyone would give up their Wheeler, Harvey1, and Harvey2, for Neise do you ?
I don't even think we'd get that for Dickey.
>>>" think they would if they were in a position to contend. Pitching prospects are major unknowns and GM's are often willing to deal them for proven talent. Considering the cheap contract Niese has I think there's a lot of teams willing to give up top pitching for him."<<<
I disagree. While I personally love Neise, and think he can be a solid #3 or maybe a good #2 at his best, I don't see any team giving up 2 or three top teir prospects for him.
Plus Neise is only proven to an extent. Had not really even established to pitch 200 innings consistantly.
I just don't see a team, in contention or not, parting with their version of Wheeler+Harvey+Harvey2. You'd be hard pressed to get that type of package even for a veteran star ace at this point.
And again, unless you are getting back several top teir kids for Niese, I see no benefit in dealing him. He's fitting in well here, and between him Harvey, and Wheeler, we might has the making an excellent front three for years.
Keeping Niese, but dealing Dickey, is the way to go.
~~~ He's young and he has a cheap contract. He's coming off a strong season. I'd unload him right now for a couple of high upside prospects. ~~~
You mean prospects who MIGHT turn out to be as good as.... Niese?
"I don't see anybody giving up three "top flight" prospects for Neise, and mind you, I have been Neise fan since day one."
Hence why I said someone would have to overpay for him. We have NO reason to be motivated to dump him. He is a cheap young lefty under control for a while who can be a solid #2 who still shows flashes of ace quality here and there. IF someone wants him, the talks START with your 3 best prospects. A team has to give the Mets a reason to trade him. They have to give the Mets an offer they CAN'T refuse...and that is THREE top prospects at LEAST....not just 1 top prospects and a couple of pretty good ones....THREE TOP PROSPECTS......otherwise no deal.
"disagree. While I personally love Neise, and think he can be a solid #3 or maybe a good #2 at his best, I don't see any team giving up 2 or three top teir prospects for him."
THIS year alone he was already a VERY good #2 and has shown he can pitch like an ace. He is WAY more than just a "solid #3." If teams want Niese, they WILL have to give up A LOT to get him (close to what the Nats gave up for Gio). The Mets have no reason to trade him for only 1 or 2 unknowns.