He's going to want big money and we can probably get Harden and Marquis for the same amount.
A rotation of
SantanaHardenPelfreyMarquisPerez
would probably be better in the longrun than
SantanaLackeyPelfreyPerezNiese/Maine
Since 2004, Marquis has made at least 28 starts and has won 10 games in each year. His ERA is around 4 in each of those years but pitching in a big park like CitiField, it might go down. Plus a 4 era is not bad for your 4th starter. Also after this year of injuries, don't want a guy that can stay healthy.
Harden when healthy, is better than Lackey although when healthy is the key phrase. Because of this though, he should come cheap as teams would be afraid of his injury history.
Why sign Lackey for 16-18 million dollars when we can get two pretty good pitchers for the same price? Add Holliday and resign delgado and you have
ReyesCastilloBeltranHollidayDelgadoWrightFrancoeur Santos/Thole
Along with
I think this team can seriously compete for the NL East and possibly the NL pennant
>>>"He's going to want big money and we can probably get Harden and Marquis for the same amount."<<<
What? The same amount? What do you mean? Harden and Marquis aren't going to get the same type of money as Lackey.
Lackey is a proven player. He is a #1, who'd be a perfect #2 behind Johan.
Marquis is nothing special.
I totally love Harden ! He is still young, and when he is healthy, he is as good as anyone out there. If not for all his injuries, he'd sure;y be considered one of the best in the game at this point in his career. But there in lies the problem... the guys career is one of injury after injury. No GM in his right mind would risk a big contract on him util he can string together a couple of 200+ inning seasons with injuries.
That said, I'd be tempted to give Harden a contract. But it would have to be incentive heavy and with vesting years. They could give him a multi-year deal, but with the 2nd year only kicking in if he pitches 200+ innings in the first year. And like wise, the 3rd year vesting only after 200+ innings in the 2nd year. They could also have a clause in that saying that if he pitches 200+ inning in the 1st, and 2nd year, then not only does the 3rd year vest, but 2 more years vest along with that. The dollar figure for each of these years could be at a very high level, because the club will be protected with the vesting requirements in the first 3 years.
Didn't the Tiger do something similar to this with Maggilo Ordonez when they signed him? I remember no teams wanted to touch Maggs because of his injury issues, but the Tigers worked up a creative contract, that protected them, and gave Maggs a chance to earn in steps, while proving himself
Lackey, when he pitches is very good, but in the last two seasons he has missed the first 30-40 games each of these last two seasons. That translated into 7 and 8 missed starts. The lost starts were due to an injured elbow on his throwing arm. Same injured elbow both years. 2010? Who knows. He also wants alot of years and dough.
In 2009 missed 34 games with elbow injury--made 27 starts. 6 Pitchers had 34 in NL this year.
In 2008 missed 41 games with same elbow--made 24 starts. Ollie lead NL in starts with 34 in 2008.
www.sbnation.com/mlb/players/722/John_Lackeynjury.
Harden would kill the bullpen, he doesn't pitch long into games and also has had some injury issues. Harden has alot of talent but we will need some more long relievers in the pen as he doesn't pitch alot of innings and is injured alot. Averages only 17 starts a year and an average of 5.6 IP per GS.
None of the injuries seem serious but he has missed a fair amount of time from 2006 to 2008.
I also should add that Lacky didn't pitch too well in the playoffs in the cold. Then again it stays warm around here into September, and we aren't making the post season so it is less of an issue.
"Lackey is a proven player. He is a #1"
He's absolutely not #1 caliber. He hasn't finished in the top 30 in ERA in MLB the past two seasons. That's not a #1 right there.
okay look. you cant expect harden who can only pitch 5 innings and is injury prone to be a number 2. marquis is a number 4. i no that lackey isnt outstanding but hes a ace on many teams and did you see him during the playoffs he was nast. i say sign him for more money less years. then sign marquis and sheets
rotationsatanalackeysheetsmarquispelfrey
for a team in dire need of some stability & players they can rely on to make it through a full season you're taking a HUGE risk with relying on Harden to be your #2 pitcher all season long. This is a guy who hasn't even pitched 150 innings in a season since 2004. oh and BTW, 2004 was the only time in his career he made 30 starts.
If you're going to take a risk with a guy like Harden, then fine, but do it as a back end of the rotation starter. In other words, take the risk with Harden when you've already gotten someone you can rely on to be there all year long at the front end of the rotation.
As for Jason Marquis...well he just isn't any good.
"He hasn't finished in the top 30 in ERA in MLB the past two seasons. That's not a #1 right there."
Over the past three years he's 12th in ERA among starters:
h ttp://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2009&month=12
More importantly (since ERA is hardly the only stat to consider), he's 16th in Wins Above Replacement and in dollar value.
h ttp://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=12
You keep posting the same statement about Lackey's ERA. Josh Beckett was 36th in ERA this year -- so he mustn't be a TOR pitcher either, is that right? Better tell Theo, because he's got him in the one slot in the Bosox rotation.
"personally, i think the mets are going to go cheap, wait on prospects, and sign a stopgap like..."
Yup, I say it will be Bronson Arroyo.
>>>"Isn't Maggs a fa this year?"<<<
I think so.
>>>"Lackey, when he pitches is very good, but in the last two seasons he has missed the first 30-40 games each of these last two seasons. That translated into 7 and 8 missed starts. The lost starts were due to an injured elbow on his throwing arm. Same injured elbow both years. 2010? Who knows. He also wants alot of years and dough. In 2009 missed 34 games with elbow injury--made 27 starts. 6 Pitchers had 34 in NL this year. In 2008 missed 41 games with same elbow--made 24 starts. Ollie lead NL in starts with 34 in 2008."<<<
Yes, we know he's missed some starts, but his career hasn't been injury plagued. Players get injuried - even Johan has been injured already. Beltran...etc. I am not saying we offer him a Johan Santana or Sabathia type deal, because surely he isn't a dominate guy like them. All I am saying is that, from a player personnel standpoint, Lackey fits our needs for a proven #1b or #2 behind Santana. I think signing him makes sense - as long has his demands aren't too crazy. And frankly, in this economy, and based on what we saw happen in last winter's free agent market, I don't see team spending big. Lacky may only have a few option of where he can go, and won't get the type of dollars or years he might have gotten several years ago in a different economy.
>>>"Harden would kill the bullpen, he doesn't pitch long into games and also has had some injury issues. Harden has alot of talent but we will need some more long relievers in the pen as he doesn't pitch alot of innings and is injured alot. Averages only 17 starts a year and an average of 5.6 IP per GS. None of the injuries seem serious but he has missed a fair amount of time from 2006 to 2008."<<<
I think we are all well aware of the injury history and risks attached to Harden. And you make a valis point about not going deep in games and needing a good pen. But as I suggest, if you can get him on a vested based contract for the next several years, your risks are minimized. And if Omar does he work he constructing a solid pen, then it should be fine. If can get 6 innings of shutout or 1 oo 2 run ball out of a guy each time, then I am willing to do it.
>>>"I also should add that Lacky didn't pitch too well in the playoffs in the cold. Then again it stays warm around here into September, and we aren't making the post season so it is less of an issue."<<<
Haha...exactly. Lets worry about actually constructing a team that makes the post season, before we start worrying about a guys post-season stats. That is something a team like the Yankees would be more concerned with, not us....lol
Injuries happen, but Lackey seems have have a chronic injury to his elbow. The last two seasons started with him on the DL. He missed the first 30-40 games in 2008 and 2009 which translated to 7 to 8 missed starts. He wants a long term contract (5 to 7 years) at big bucks ($15 to $17 million per). The Angels had discussed getting him resigned to the low range of that. Can we afford those years and dollars?
But he is the "best" free agent available and we do need pitching so we should definitely scoop him up.
The Yankees are looking for someone to replace Petite. Let them spend their money on Lackey. They have alot of it. They can just print more.
Harden, vested contract? So we are again assembling back of the order starters and hoping one of them catches fire?
Agreed on the post season. Even if we do get Lackey and sign him to a long term deal, the odds of him pitching in late October, early November are very slim.
metsmerizedonline.com/2009/10/did-javier-vasquez-just-become-expendable.html
That sounds good. Javier Vazquez as #2, sign Lackey as #3 (which is probably what he is, a very good #3) and finish up #4 and #5 with Pelfrey and Maine.
>>>"Lackey is a proven player. He is a #1"<<< 86kid
>>>"He's absolutely not #1 caliber. He hasn't finished in the top 30 in ERA in MLB the past two seasons. That's not a #1 right there."<<<
He's been the Angels #1 for years, and he'd be a number #1 on some other teams. I wasn't saying that he is a dominator like Johan, Sabathia or Halladay. I said he's a "proven player" and the "He is a #1". All of which is certainly the case. As I've said, he'd make a perfect #1b or #2 behind Johan. That's what the Mets need in their rotation right now. We don't know exactly what Pelfrey is going to be next. Nor do we know what Maine will give us. And certainly do we know what to expect out of Perez on a yearly basis. With Lackey, based on his track record, you know for the most part. Also, when looking at ERA, remember that AL ERA numbers are generally considered, on average, to run about .50 higher than the ERAs in the NL. Either way, Lackey he proven he's a quality pitcher.
>>>"Injuries happen, but Lackey seems have have a chronic injury to his elbow. The last two seasons started with him on the DL. He missed the first 30-40 games in 2008 and 2009 which translated to 7 to 8 missed starts. He wants a long term contract (5 to 7 years) at big bucks ($15 to $17 million per). The Angels had discussed getting him resigned to the low range of that. Can we afford those years and dollars?"<<<
I am assuming that the Mets will do their examination of the player before signing him. And again, what Lackey "wants", and what the market will actually yield for him, can be two different things - especially in this economy - and especially if teams do have concerns about his elbow.
>>>"But he is the "best" free agent available and we do need pitching so we should definitely scoop him up."<<<
It would appear that way, not unless the Mets can do better via the trade route.
>>>"The Yankees are looking for someone to replace Petite. Let them spend their money on Lackey. They have alot of it. They can just print more."<<<
It certainly wouldn't surprise me at all if the Yankees offered him a deal...
>>>"Harden, vested contract? So we are again assembling back of the order starters and hoping one of them catches fire?"<<<
Harden isn't a back-of-order starter. You'd hardly place hin in the same thought process as guys like Livan, Redding or Lima. If Harden "catches fire" you have a guy who can dominate. And quite frankly, while Harden is a risk, is he really anymore of a risk at this point than Maine, Pelfrey, or Perez ? And don't get me wrong, I am a Pelfrey advocate, and always have been one of the few to stick with him since he came up. And Maine and Perez have both missed their share of starts, and neither is as good/or as polished as Harden. I am not saying that Harden type deals are my first choice, but I think it could be an option. Frankly I'd also like to see a kid like Neise step in and stick. AJ Burnett made it through his first season with the Yankees with being majorly hurt, so I maybe Harden could too.
>>>"Agreed on the post season. Even if we do get Lackey and sign him to a long term deal, the odds of him pitching in late October, early November are very slim."<<<
Frankly, while I believe the Mets should make an offer, I don't see us getting Lackey. Word is that he's a southwestern product, that has no lost love for New York City. Hearing that he want to be in or close to Texas.
