Figures exchanged this Friday.
What do we all think?
Will they try and buy out his arb years and if so, how much for?
Either way, I see a record being broken.
Although the sensible option is buying out his arb years, I'd have no problem if they offered him a 10 year contract.
Whatever Buster gets, it's pretty safe to say he'll earn it.
" it's stupid to sign a guy long term when he's at the pinnacle of his cost "
This is exactly the time to sign him long-term. If he has another MVP season type season next year his cost will certainly go higher. He's not at the 'pinnacle' of his cost, he can still go a lot higher.
They should work out an Evan Longoria style contract that rewards Posey for what he's done, and buys out his arbitration years at a good savings for the team. Make both sides happy.
Try measuring how much higher his value can go vs. how much lower it can go and you'll see my point. He's the reigning MVP, doesn't get much better than that. Signing him driven by the concern he'll repeat as MVP is silly, because it's unlikely to happen. There's not much higher he can go, but a whole lot lower (injuries). Also, he'll never be as young as he is today.
He won't sign anywhere near as low as Longoria did. No way.
"Try measuring how much higher his value can go vs. how much lower it can go and you'll see my point."
You're trying to claim he's at the highest level he can get to and you are dead wrong. His cost can keep going higher and higher with multiple good seasons, not even 'great' seasons. This is exactly why the Giants signed Bumgarner to the style contract they did. To save money if he keeps performing at a high level.
"He won't sign anywhere near as low as Longoria did. No way."
I never said he would. I said they should sign him to that style contract. I never said the same pay.
So you think his value could rise as high as it could fall, at this point in his career? That's absurd. On a value scale of 1-10, he's at 9.
Against his value today, compare how much more his value will be if he repeats last year's success against how much less it will be if he misses 120 games with a broken leg. If you think it will be a similar fluctuation, you are insane. I don't know how else to explain it. It seems pretty elementary to me.
I really think that we are going to try to go long term with him. Even with the injury and the position of concern for future injury, I think the Giants have to try to get any negative publicity around this out of the way.
I think that Buster will either want arbitration years bought out, or go long term...no in between. If we are going to look at both possibilities, I think these are the starting points...
Arbitration buyout: 4 years, 45 million (12.5 million a year)
Long Term: 10 years, 185 million (10 million a year for the next 4 years, 24 million for each of the next 6)
So I guess the question is this....are you willing to pay more later on by protecting yourself from possible injury or performance decline in the next 4 seasons, a la Tim Lincecum? Or, do you put the future of your franchise in Buster Posey to make sure he doesn't play anywhere else.
The numbers Pagan told the reporters speaking for Scoots at end of last year are about right....
When Scoots said something in the clubhouse the reporters did not know what he said in his native language so they asked Pagan what he said...Pagan "He said he will sign with the Giants for 2013 for a Gazzilion dollars and 50 yrs" .....lol... classic...!!
I'm thinking $105-110 over 6 seasons, buying out his first 2 years of FA.
It would be foolish for either side to commit to more than 6 years. Let the Giants wrap him up for the rest of his career with his next contract extension at age 32.
My guess is he won't be squatting behind the plate at that point.
"So you think his value could rise as high as it could fall, at this point in his career? That's absurd. On a value scale of 1-10, he's at 9."
Player contracts don't go off your personal "value scale".
The reason you sign young players out of arbitration is to safeguard yourself from having to pay more year by year if they keep playing good. His contract price can be a lot bigger next year than it is today if he has another good season. It doesn't even need to be another MVP year.
So no, you are still wrong. His price can still go higher if they don't offer a multi-year deal to him.
Lincecum: 10:$8M, 11:$13M, 12:$18M, 13:$22MCain: 07:$0.4M, 08:$0.7M, 09:$2.65M, 10:$4.25M, 11:$6.25MBumgarner: 13:$0.75M, 14:$3.75M, 15:$6.75M, 16:$9.75M, 17:$11.5M, 18:$12M, 19:$12M
This is the difference between a player who didn't sign long-term early, and two that did. Do you see the difference? Do you see how signing Posey right now to a long-term deal can save the team a ton of money down the road?
"It seems pretty elementary to me."
And yet you are still wrong. Or will you now backtrack and claim you meant something else?
"So no, you are still wrong. His price can still go higher if they don't offer a multi-year deal to him."
Oh man, you just don't get it. I'm not wrong, you just can't comprehend what I'm saying. I'll try again......
Of course his value can rise, I'm not a numbskull, I know that. What I was saying is that it could fall too. And there's a lot more room for it to fall than room for it to rise. Forget my "personal value scale", use your own. Take what you believe Posey's value is right now and put it to a 0-100 scale. 0 being worthless and 100 being the most valuable and expensive player in baseball. The only way you can disagree with my assertion that Posey's value could drop more than it could climb is if you believe his value is at 49 or less out of 100. Do you believe that?
I get what you are saying and if he was a free agent and could sign whatever deal he was worth I would agree, but are you saying there is no reason to buy out a guys arb years that bleed into his first couple FA? Even though Posey's value is at an all time high he isn't a free agent so his free market value is kinda meaningless because he can't get it. You offer him more than he can get now, and in turn he commits to likely making less than he can once a FA the first couple years. You take the risk of injury sure, but you also take out the risk he wins two more MVPs and is the most expensive player in baseball at that point. I'd buy out his first two years in a second especially since his bat showed it is good enough to be an elite 1b even if he has injury problems at C.
I will admit though while I get the basics of arbitration I still have always felt a little confused about the intricacies of it and like I was missing something. It seems almost every time a guy gets bought out he is near your definition of max value like Longo and Mauer both bought out after MVP type seasons.
I'm talking long term deals here, like 8 years or so. The Giants have him for the next four years at a reasonable rate and they have to option to get rid of him each year, that's already set in stone. Signing a long term deal takes away the option of getting rid of him if something unspeakable happens and it takes away the luxury of a performance based contract. It would be ok to sign him long term if it was very team friendly but that just isn't going to happen. Signing him now takes away all the flexibility you have with the player. The Giants basically own Posey under their own terms right now. Why throw that away? To save 5m a year in free agency? Who knows what will happen four years from now but if you sign him long term, the only thing we'll know is that he is going to get paid huge no matter what.
Bottomline, there's no need to jump the gun, again unless it's really team friendly. Let things play out. Sure it might mean they have to pay 5-10m per year more in FA, but it also means they won't run the risk of owing a guy 140m while he's trying to recover from career ending injuries. The Giants have him for four years already. Signing a guy long term now risks a huge amount of money to potentially save a much smaller amount of money.
Let's see, he is under control for another 4 years. Usually, a team that wants to buy out arb years also wants at least one FA year.
That would take it to a 5-year in that scenario.
Molina got 5 X $15M I believe, but is not a true comp for obvious reasons.
Longoria is not a good comp either, as I think he was signed before he even completed his first season.
David Wright, who started in 2004 (half-season), got 6/$55M + club option in "Aug" 2006. That was a little less than 2 1/2 seasons into his career. Slash:
2005 = .306 .388 .523 .912 with 27 HR 102 RBI2006 = .311 .381 .531 .912 with 26 HR 116 RBI
07:$1M, 08:$5M, 09:$7.5M, 10:$10M, 11:$14M, 12:$15M, 13:$16M club option ($1M buyout)
Posey has logged 1255 PA with a career slash of .314 .380 .503 .883
Wright 2004-06 over 1601 PA slash = .306 .375 .527 .902
Very similar ability to hit for average and SLG, along with a high OBP.
Posey has an edge at a more difficult position to find this kind of offensive talent.
Then, we must factor in inflation since that Wright extension. That deal ran through his 8th year, which should mean 2 FA years were bought out, including the club option.
Not sure Posey's camp will go for 2 FA years, so I'll guess that they will agree on 1 FA year bought out. Posey is also a Super Two, which Wright was not, to my knowledge. My guesstimate:
13: $6M, 14: $10M, 15: $12M, 16: $15M, 17: $20M Total = 5 years $63M
Bonus $10M. Total package $73M. AAV $14.6M
Ryan Howard: In his 4th year signed 3-year $54M (AAV $18M) covering 2009,10,11.In 2010, he signed the mega extension 5-year $125M (AAV $25M) covering 2012-16.
Don't know if it was Howard's or the Phillies' decision to keep the first deal short. In any event, they panicked and gave out the next one at an astronomical price.
Certainly, Howard was the classic cleanup hitter, driving in 100 runs annually, with a lot of bombs. I think in hindsight, if they had lengthen the first deal to 6 years, it would have been a much better situation for the team.
Posey differs from the typical catcher in that he can always switch to 1B. That will temper any doubts about his longevity. Nevertheless, if he ends up commanding an AAV of $25M, it might weigh too heavily on the team.