While Brian Sabean's most important task this offseason is to find a power bat, his most difficult decision might be what to do about the catcher position.
Is Buster Posey ready to start in the major leagues? Buster is struggling in the Arizona Fall League. While a lot of people don't put a lot of stock in AFL or winter league stats, Brian Sabean has historically made good performances mandatory prerequisites to prospects earning a MLB roster spot.
If Buster isn't ready, do you want Bengie Molina back? Would Bengie accept a 1 year contract? Should he be offered arbitration? it seems to me that if Posey is not ready, by whatever criteria you use to determine this, then offering Bengie arbitration is a no-brainer. If he accepts, he's your catcher for next year, if he doesn't, you get a couple of extra draft picks. What if Buster is ready? Do you roll the dice and offer Bengie arbitration anyway?
What is Buster isn't ready and Bengie is gone, outa here? What else is available on the market? Here are rundowns of the Free Agent and Trade markets for catchers:
www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/free-agent-market-catchers.html
www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/10/trade-market-catchers.html
See anything you like?
Here is Bengie's line from 2009 just for a point of reference: .265/.285/.442 with 20 HR's. Age 35. 491 AB's.
Free agents: Pudge: .249/.286/.384 with 10 HR's Age 38. 425 AB's. Pudge is the best defensive catcher on the market which fits the Giants scheme well, but he's a definite downgrade from Bengie offensively.
Miguel Olivo: .249/.292/.490 with 23 HR's. 31 yo, 390 AB's. Slight offensive upgrade and younger, but like Bengie, will probably want a multiyear contract.
Yorvit Torrealba: Rocks have an option. .291/.351/.380. 31 yo, 213 AB's. Gives you a better OBP, but not much power.
Jason Kendall: Known for his great plate discipline, his BA has eroded to the point where that only gets him a OBP of about .330 and he has no power at all. Pass.
Trades: Kelly Shoppach: .214/.335/.399 with 12 HR's in .271 AB's. 30 yo. Arbitration eligible. Expected cost $2.5-3 M. A non-tender candidate. Do you wait and see if he is non-tendered and try to sign him, or do you trade a Merkin Valdez/Jesus Guzman for his rights? The BA is terrible, but the OBP is an upgrade and his IsoP is almost identical to Bengie's. Bonus: He's coming off a .865 OPS season in 2008, so has the possibility of bouncing back to that.
John Buck: .247/.299/.484 with 8 HR's in 186 AB's. Age 29. Similar numbers to Bengie, but younger. I don't know about his D, but I'm guessing it's not very good.
Conclusion: The best-case scenario if Buster isn't ready is offer arbitration to Bengie. Bengie signs with another team giving us two extra draft picks. We then swing a trade for Shoppach.