Per stlcardinals.com:

That means that before they hit free agency, the Cardinals likely will be spending close to $70 million, leaving roughly $30 million that could be added.

With that money, they'll have to achieve a couple of main goals: filling out the back of the rotation and adding a left fielder.

Third base might be a priority, though the Cardinals could well stay in-house with David Freese. They might also look to add a setup reliever, but right-handed relief is not at the top of the priority list. And someone needs to be the backup catcher, though Jason LaRue might well return.

Still, there's quite a lot already set, and a decent amount of wiggle room to augment what is in place. It will be a busy winter for the Cardinals, but it should also be an interesting one.

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If the Cardinals don't sign Holliday, where exactly do you think that $30 million would be going? From mlbtraderumors.com, here is the list of free agent outfielders. If the Cardinals are able to sign Smoltz to an incentive laden deal in the vicinity of $1,000,000, and don't sign Holliday, where should all this money be going?

Left fielders
Garret Anderson (38) - Type B
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31) - Type A
Emil Brown (35)
Marlon Byrd (32) - Type B
Carl Crawford (28) - $10MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout - Type B
Johnny Damon (36) - Type A
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Matt Holliday (30) - Type A
Reed Johnson (33)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Manny Ramirez (38) - $20MM player option - Type A
Dave Roberts (38)
Gary Sheffield (41)
Fernando Tatis (35) - Type B
Randy Winn (36) - Type B

Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (30)
Rocco Baldelli (28)
Marlon Byrd (32) - Type B
Mike Cameron (37) - Type B
Endy Chavez (32)
Coco Crisp (30) - $8MM club option with a $500K buyout
Darin Erstad (36)
Ryan Freel (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34) - Type B
Reed Johnson (33)
Andruw Jones (33)
Mark Kotsay (34)
Corey Patterson (30)
Scott Podsednik (34)
DeWayne Wise (32)

Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (36) - Type A
Jermaine Dye (36) - $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout - Type A
Brian Giles (39) - Type B
Vladimir Guerrero (35) - Type A
Eric Hinske (32)
Geoff Jenkins (35)
Austin Kearns (30) - $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Michaels (34)
Xavier Nady (31) - Type B
Randy Winn (36) - Type B

For some depressing reason, I could see us ending up with Wily Mo Pena in left-field.

Maybe we should give Andruw Jones a try. :)

Personally, I am not interested. Over the course of 2008 and 2009, he only hit .190 with 20 HR, and 57 RBI.

I was joking.

I suppose I'm one of the few who actually believes Holliday will stay in St. Louis. If the Cardinals expect to be a competing franchise as their past has dictated they will have to step it up like the rest of the league and increase their spending.

Otherwise, this organization may fade into obscurity, and with the passion of our fans I just don't see that happening. By stating Freese will have his chance to be our starting 3rd basemen I believe the Cardinals are taking the stance that, yes, we are going to sign Matt Holliday. Where else are they going to spend that money? They already have 3 starting pitchers locked up with deals, I don't see them going big for a 4th.

And so long as they continue to increase spending with the rest of the large market teams they will also be able to extend Pujols past 2011.

And if Holliday doesn't sign with us to atone for that unforgivable mistake, I would have to say he will become the most hated ex-Cardinal of all time - starting with me hating him the most.

I just don't think that Holliday is going to come back.

Are they even negotiating with him right now? I haven't seen anything saying that they are.

I haven't seen a word but they usually keep those things on the wrap. At least, until a deal is actually done.

Who knows, maybe I'm just an optimist.

actually, most of the time someone reports that the two parties are "talking."

I haven't seen anything like that.

"For some depressing reason, I could see us ending up with Wily Mo Pena in left-field"

Why? He hasn't played in the Majors since July '08. There's no way we'd bring him in unless it's a minor league deal.

Basically, **** and NO.

Haha, I say the same thing.

I was being excessively pessimistic, basically.

Marlon Byrd

He's not bad, but I worry about taking guys like him out of Texas.

yeah, I agree.

Ya I just think he would be a decent hitter that wouldnt cost much.

There isnt a real good crop in FA as far as LF is concerned.

Most of them are over 32.

I think Freese plays 3B and DeRo may end up playing mainly LF but all over with Craig in the mix.

Im not sure why you are assuming the cardinals opening day payroll with be $100 mil. If they do no sign Holliday the most likely will open the season with a payroll around $85-90 mil. So you may be talking about....What will they do with the $15-20 mil if they dont resign Holliday.

"If the Cardinals don't sign Holliday, where exactly do you think that $30 million would be going? From mlbtraderumors.com, here is the list of free agent outfielders. If the Cardinals are able to sign Smoltz to an incentive laden deal in the vicinity of $1,000,000, and don't sign Holliday, where should all this money be going?"

Smoltz is not going to sign for $1 mil. He had a $5.5 mil contract last season with a lot more on the table in incentives.

If they resign DeRosa and Smoltz they would be easily be around $80+ mil at that point. I think the hopes are too high with the payroll. Remember they almost did not make the Holliday trade because Oakland did not want to pick up $1-2 mil of his contract.

So hard to read the Holliday thing. Trying to block out my Cardinal "bias" I personally would rather play in less of a "pressure cooker" city(St.Louis vs. New York) considering I'd still be making approx. $18 Million per year for 5/6 years. Seems like my family/future would be in pretty safe hands?
However...since I don't get to make that decision...how can I say if I'd really turn down an extra $15/S20 Million??? lol
Who knows? Holliday may be going through the process hoping to squeeze an extra $2 Mil per year out of the Cards?
Over the last week I've actually gotten more optimistic about next year.

"If the Cardinals are able to sign Smoltz to an incentive laden deal in the vicinity of $1,000,000.."

I don't think that's likely, considering Smoltz made over $5MM last season. You might want to tack on another $3MM-4MM + incentives.

As for the FA pool:

* Jason Bay, more than likely, will resign with Boston. I've read numerous reports that the BoSox want to get him locked up.
* Johnny Damon will be a Yankee.
* Carl Crawford's option will be exercised.
* Jermaine Dye's option will be exercised.
* No other FA OF'ers really get me excited.

Holliday could probably be resigned, but the Cardinals would have to (a) go internal for the 3B position (think Freese or Craig), (b) Jaime Garcia will be our #5 starter, (c) get a cheap and/or internal fill for a RH-relief specialist, and (d) Jason Larue is our backup, or Pagnozzi is our backup catcher (one of the two).

With pay increases, arbitration, and signing Smoltz to about $5MM, Larue to league minimum (based on years of service), and possibly getting Holliday @ $18-20MM per year, that's pushing us at or above our budget from last year.

It all depends on whether they want Holliday that badly.

If not, I could see Marlon Byrd, Xavier Nady, Randy Winn, or Brian Giles manning one of the corner OF spots. If that's the case, we better search for a more potent option at 3B and consider getting another starter or a long reliever.

Considering Smoltz was handed his walking papers last year, there is no way he's going to command anywhere near 5.5 million. A year older and a year slower, if he can get 3 million from someone, let him take it and go. We have plenty of young arms we can give a shot back there.

And if we replace the Holliday/DeRosa combination with a Freese/DeRosa combination, well, so much for winning the division, much less going anywhere in the playoffs.

If the Cardinals want to continue their tradition of being competitive and winning they will have to step it up with the rest of the large market teams and start spending money. That's the operative idea here. Not a lot of money, but definitely cresting the $100 million mark. Being cheap just isn't going to cut it anymore, not until baseball creates a salary cap.

"Considering Smoltz was handed his walking papers last year, there is no way he's going to command anywhere near 5.5 million. A year older and a year slower, if he can get 3 million from someone, let him take it and go. We have plenty of young arms we can give a shot back there."

Well, he certainly won't be signing for $1MM - (a) that's a severe paycut for a guy of his service and (b) the Player's Union won't go for it. I'm thinking your $3MM mention (plus incentives) is what he'll be offered and we should take it. I don't see any other FA pitchers that excite me and I know that we don't want to fill the back-end of our rotation with two rookies (heck...the only one that I think is MLB-ready is Garcia).

"If the Cardinals want to continue their tradition of being competitive and winning they will have to step it up with the rest of the large market teams and start spending money. That's the operative idea here. Not a lot of money, but definitely cresting the $100 million mark. Being cheap just isn't going to cut it anymore, not until baseball creates a salary cap."

I think all of us would love to see a bump in payroll...but is that feasible in our market? The profits earned aren't publically available. We can look up the revenue and expenses, but that doesn't provide the complete picture of their finances. However...the acquisition of Holliday would equal greater sells in jerseys (with Holliday's name), items of likeness, and possibly more national television coverage.

I think it would be reasonable to give Garcia a legitimate shot at the 5th spot in the rotation even without signing Holliday.