I am seriously starting to get concerned that this thing is at its peak.

Think about it. The stimulus money has had its biggest impact and this is according to a white house official.

I think that next year will be very sluggish or might actually slide back into recession.

No new jobs. Higher taxes for business. And less consumer spending.

I don't think my 401k will be going any higher after december.

Any inputs?

Too soon to tell. The market has been improving this year but I'm like you and not sure it's for "real" or a lasting trend. Unemployment is not a good indicator because it is usually one of the last segments of the economy that improves coming out of a recession. Once companies feel that the recession is ending or over is when they will start hiring again but this could be a long process this time around seeing that consumer confidence is low. This X-Mas season will probably be much like last season for retailers (slow). Hiring only for seasonal part-time workers and not filling position for full time jobs will not help improve unemployment for the long term...

I partially agree with you. Unemployment is not the whole picture.

But consumer spending down. Thats not good news. People are saving in record numbers but they are also hurting the economy by not shopping.

On top of it all, we barely produce anything anymore. Just Tech and healthcare. And healthcare is about to take a huge hit.

I was 50/50 stocks/bonds and went to 80/20 when dow jones was 6600. That helped a lot.

Now that my 401k is up 25%, I dont want to lose it all back. I am thinking about parking my money in cash and sit out until the uncertainty resolves.

If this is the best that we can do with all the money the govt and the treasury spent, we are in trouble.

"But consumer spending down"

Consumer spending has been down for a couple of years now and will not increase until people are much more confident in their future. Being in retail, I saw this recession coming in early 2007 and I see no real strong indication that things will get better until possibly the 3rd quarter of 2010...if then. In some parts of the country (especially CA, NV, FL, and MI) recovery will be much slower. I've even read reports that it will be another 2-3 years for those areas. Not good at all...

"On top of it all, we barely produce anything anymore"

That's because our government (both Republicans and Democrats) "sold us out" and this just didn't happen overnight. It has been a common practice for years to outsource jobs to countries like Mexico and India for cheap labor. Big business wanted to increase their bottom line and did but the cost has been disastrous for the country. Greed has ruined this country.

"If this is the best that we can do with all the money the govt and the treasury spent, we are in trouble"

We are in trouble and even when we thought things were ok there was a growing storm created by corporate greed and government who chose to ignore the impending storm. We may never fully recover from this recession (I consider it a depression in certain parts of the country). Hope we don't have another terrorist attack on our soil because it will cause this country to crumble...Scary thought...

Another terrorist attack..that's exactly what the terrorist want you to believe....

It will eventually happen again but they are not in any hurry. I don't worry about it because I know I have no control over it. Too many other things for me to worry about. A terrorist attack is not one of them...

Not one of my greatest fears at the moment either. Right now I am just worried of which will come first - when my money will run out altogether or will I find a decent job..not just part-time?

I know how you feel because I'm not working either and all I can find is part-time or temporary work which gives me no benefits or security (*security in this environment...what's that??*)

Well you know things are bad when the Hispanics go back to Mexico b/c work here isn't happening for a while. lol

<< I was 50/50 stocks/bonds and went to 80/20 when dow jones was 6600. >>

Great move. Congratulations!

I don't know what your age is but regardless, IMO I think parking the bulk of your money in cash right now for about 6 months or so is a good idea.

Now if you do that and end up missing a bull market, don't blame me. :-)

d@mn. One day too late. The S&P just tanked 3% in one day. I think wallstreet is catching up to the idea that we are no better off than we were in march.

Yeah, I wish I had pulled some out after yesterday. Greed su.cks.

It's long term, baby!

I sold out in late September when the Dow was pushing 10,000 the first time. Most stocks individually seem to be extremely overvalued at this moment. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see the Dow at 8,000 next year. I doubt that I'll buy stocks ever again. Too much corruption, and the SEC doesn't really care about it as long as they can catch a few people to make it look like they're doing something.

I know that concept all too well. But once you've gotten burnt several times, you learn when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.

I've done much better timing the ebbs and flows of the market rather than sitting tight through the tough times.

Employers don't hire based of the "recession ending", its based off need. If the business is there they will hire, regardless of whether there is recession or not. The problem you run into in a recession is, people are hesitant about investing, see posts above, if you're not investing then you're limiting the ability to grow the business which even magnifies a already bad situation.

Retail is about the only industry hiring because of need only because of the upcoming holidays. After that it will be back to doom and gloom because most of those holiday hires will be terminated and the rest of the staff will be scheduled less hours. Recession continues...

And even the retail managers right now are very willing to go through all applications seeking out the best (ones with clean track records, ones with work experience already in the retail fields, etc)...

Yeah...picky...picky...picky!! :-(

Stock Market and corruption - now there's two interchangeable words. I've always thought the Stock market was rigged by insider manipulation so have NEVER put my own money into it. Sadly the retirement fund of which I am a member did, and went from 90 to 55% funded and now are back up to 65%, but I am just too afraid to to trust the market myself . As to parking cash, I have always done that, and while not making a lot -1 to 2% right now-I have not lost 35 to 50% of a 401(k) so many say has happened to them. As to banks, I dumped them-and their credit cards-over the past 2 years guessing right that what happened was coming - too many bad signs to stay with them. All my CCs and accounts are now with credit unons - not banks. So far, I've been lucky in some respects - not so lucky in others. My work income is down 75% (self-owned business) this year after being down 60% last year - where is all of that Stimulus assistance we've heard so much about? One speculation is the Dems are delaying it to time its flow with upcoming elections to get more Dems in office. After the 8 years of Bush and one of this administration, I'm on the fence as to which is worse. Have to say my worst setbacks were under the Repubs so far, but the value of the dollar is so bad right now, if we have any they don't buy anything, gas prices are up ridiculously (yet gas stations here are proudly displaying signs " no ethanol in our gasoline", while one that does have ethanol had lines at its pumps yesterday). Add to that, utiities robbing us right and left, and the banks are back to bonuses, health care and education spiraling beyond the means of people, etc. My view is we need to return to good old-fashioned regulatory butt-kicking to rein it all in. Business can not be allowed to run wild as greed kicks in and we get what we have. Regulators though MUST be qualified, fair and representative of the people - all factors non-existent in our federal & state governments today. A lot to say a little, but a slow posting day anyway.