Hello Bobby Abreu 2009 version 2.0
The guy can still rake. What do you think? Fulltime DH problems would go away instantly.
Last year was a pretty poor year for Dye and he still hit 27HR.
ScutaroSniderHillLindDyeOverbayEEWellsBarajas
Bench:
BautistaRuizChavezInglett
3 or 4 guys could hit 30HR in that lineup.
We need to make a lot more changes this offseason to either be able to compete, or to be able to be sure we can put the finishing touches on for 2011 (which I believe might be the tentative plan). Dye, as well as quite a few other players, are fine options. I just hope we do something, since we haven't in recent years. Couple of decent players we could've trade for have already moved on.
I respect Kenny Williams quite a bit. A lot of the times, if you are an active GM, you eventually get your team to a decent place. He sure gets out there and does everything he can. I really don't see how a team in need shouldn't be able to pull off three or four trades in the offseason, with one or two being relatively big ones.
zaunbie , I,ve been one of the harshest critics of our minor league talent during the JP rein ,yet I don,t see it as bad now .
Player development has not been good and AA took steps to repair that . prospects have been rushed but I still see talent there.
Cooper and Arrencibia didn,t have great seasons but they weren,t horrible and they should not have been in AA and AAA . The 07 kids ( Ahrens, Jackson and Tolisino) should still have been in low A ball .
Develop the pitching , stockpile it with depth thru the system and then add the odd position player to fit needs . Core is there already .
I turtle this year , Trade Doc for talent , trade Overbey in june/ july ( He will have a good year ) Give Lind a look at first , Give Ruiz and Doprik a look , Take a flyer on a couple of low risk , high reward type position players like Greene and see what we have in Sept . If the pitching is there go for it in 2011
I respect your opinions and what you say is all possible, but I just don't see it personally.
There are still lots of players in our minors that could pan out: Tolisano, Thames, Cooper, Ahrens, Jackson, Chavez or any number of those speed guys we've been throwing into our system of late could pan out. But do you really see any of those guys being impact players earlier than four years from now? Do you see any of them as superstars? There is a chance we find a star in the bunch, but it won't be happening for 3 or 4 years. Arencibia is a dud... he is Rod Barajas at absolute best, and in my opinion we only have room for 1 (2 at the most) players who aren't quite a bit above average if we want to win.
Halladay trade would certainly bring in some talent, but you don't have Halladay. Teams really don't usually win the trades when they trade a stud like Halladay, they break even at best. When teams really win a trade is when they trade some average guy (ala Victor Zambrano) and hit the jackpot. Teams make most of their real stud prospect off-limits these days. Sure you might get one of them, but even then... get 2 really good prospects and a couple lower quality prospects... if that's the case it'd be crazy lucky to assume you'd get any more than one star player (who probably wouldn't be as good as Doc) and one more above average player. You'd be VERY lucky if the players you got ever equaled the amount of wins Halladay did in a season... there is probably a better chance they all bust. Sure, we might have to trade Halladay, but people who think we'll be ahead because of it are getting a little too excited. If we could get more wins by trading Halladay then what Halladay brings, we should've did i a while ago.
Also, players aenn't really too loyal if you sign them to one year deals. Players sign one year deals to try and up their value. If we sign Khalil and he busts out, that doesn't really do much for us for 2011 if he is on a one year deal.
Agree with Dopirak and to some extent with Ruiz, even though I don't have much faith in him. Dopirak might not pan out either but he's younger, was a top prospect and needs a shot.
agree completely on building up a bit this year and then seeing how things look in 2011. Pretty much what I said. If this team goes full rebuild though, it's going to be a lonnnngg time before they have the pieces. Even Hill is older than some people realize. How good will he be in 3 years? You can't necessarily count of players like him to be killing it by the time a rebuild is over.
Bobby Abreu 2.0 in the sense that he'd be a highly productive bat on the cheap and not in the sense that he's the same hitter .
Abreu was never a slugger in the true sense although he's a 2-time member of the 30/30 Club .
But Dye's 162 game average of 30 HRs and 99 RBIs over 14 seasons is something we should look at if it comes at possibly a $5M price tag is what I believe EC was getting at .
It's pretty sad that you had to actually explain that to someone.
lol
"Arencibia is a dud... he is Rod Barajas at absolute best,"
Could be, but Soto in Chicago took 3 cracks at AAA and finally by the age of 24 had a big year. And if not hampered by injuries this year would've had a big year. So before we write JPA off, maybe wait and see.
Just wondering, you still think Hermida is some monster waiting to break out and JPA is done? A little confusing.
"Also, players aenn't really too loyal if you sign them to one year deals. Players sign one year deals to try and up their value. If we sign Khalil and he busts out, that doesn't really do much for us for 2011 if he is on a one year deal."
If we sign a player to a one yr deal, we're always taking a risk that the player breaks out. But just like my "closer" theory you develop them yourself, groom them, build value and then deal them. That model creates an inflated price out of very little cost to the Jays and then the inflated cost for the other team maybe prevents them from pursuing something we like or are pursuing and gives us breathing room financially.
"Halladay trade would certainly bring in some talent, but you don't have Halladay. Teams really don't usually win the trades when they trade a stud like Halladay, they break even at best. When teams really win a trade is when they trade some average guy (ala Victor Zambrano) and hit the jackpot. Teams make most of their real stud prospect off-limits these days. Sure you might get one of them, but even then... get 2 really good prospects and a couple lower quality prospects... if that's the case it'd be crazy lucky to assume you'd get any more than one star player (who probably wouldn't be as good as Doc) and one more above average player. You'd be VERY lucky if the players you got ever equaled the amount of wins Halladay did in a season... there is probably a better chance they all bust. Sure, we might have to trade Halladay, but people who think we'll be ahead because of it are getting a little too excited. If we could get more wins by trading Halladay then what Halladay brings, we should've did i a while ago."
So maybe we do break even at best, its better than getting 2 stinking picks. But for anyone to even dream that the Jays will be able to contend with a payroll around 120 million and Roy & VW taking up almost 50 million of it is ludicrous.
As usual Zaunbie , a very insightful post . Probably no impact players for at least 3 years other than maybe some pitching . Most have been promoted too quickly .
Disagree on Arencibia , He needs better strike zone management which is what I,ve said since the draft but coaching and AB,s can change that . Both were hurt this year too!
I agree we won,t likely get value from Doc. now , The baseball world has changed and teams put huge value on their top propects . So the question is do we take the 2 draft picks and try a run for it . We can,t afford to resign him nor will he want to IMO Jaybooster has pointed out all the nontender guys out there that are now coming available . Can we get a # 2 starter plus a closer,RF,SS,and catcher and even with that would all the stars line up ?
"So maybe we do break even at best, its better than getting 2 stinking picks. But for anyone to even dream that the Jays will be able to contend with a payroll around 120 million and Roy & VW taking up almost 50 million of it is ludicrous."
I said in my posts that trading Doc is better than letting him walk. That is pretty obvious but it really is not obvious to a lot of people that trading Halladay is not likely to make our team better. Even if we do well in the trade, it's not very likely to make us better as a team. It isn't impossible to hit the jackpot, get lucky and get three studs, but better chances of getting one or none. I definitely like trading for guys in the MLB better than prospects at this point.... guys like Martin etc.... Of course we can only get what other teams are willing to give.
"Just wondering, you still think Hermida is some monster waiting to break out and JPA is done? A little confusing."
If by Hermida being some monster you mean I think Hermida still has lots of potential, or that Hermida is a guy I've been trying to trade in our fantasy league, then sure lol. Either way, Hermida was the number two prospect in baseball at one point with unlimited potential. He walked over 100 times in AA I believe. He was a 5-tool player and is a guy who was set back by being rushed and injured.
Arencibia is a guy who has not ever shown any ability to take a walk. This is a large indicator of being able to hit MLB pitching, as it the strikeout rates. You can strikeout as long as you walk, but you can't strikeout and not walk. Sure, you see some guys like that put up a good year or two, or get off to a hot start before being figured out, but they don't last. JP Arencbia's skillset is basically that of Rod Barajas at best. He has power and a good arm, I don't see why anyone would expect anything more than that. A comparison to Hermida... that is pretty ridiculous. You can't just compare any two players and say it doesn't make sense just because I think one has a lot more potential than the other, just doesn't work.
"If we sign a player to a one yr deal, we're always taking a risk that the player breaks out. But just like my "closer" theory you develop them yourself, groom them, build value and then deal them. That model creates an inflated price out of very little cost to the Jays and then the inflated cost for the other team maybe prevents them from pursuing something we like or are pursuing and gives us breathing room financially."
That's all well and good. I love signing deals with undervalued players. Heck, in our league I'm the guy that drafted probably younger than anyone, because I believe in finding bargains. I take no issue with that. I just take slight issue with the people who seem to assume that if we sign a high upside player on a one year deal, that the player will show sme loyalty to the organization. That if we sign him for this year and he does good we can automatically get him for next year, well we can't. You're right, we could trade them at the deadline, but it'd obviously be to a team in contention which would mean getting prospects... so no help for 2011 really.
But you're right, teams need to try those kinds of deals and I agree with the closer thing too. It still boggles my mind how we didn't trade Accardo after his 30 save season, when we had multiple other great bullpen arms.
Gib . There is no resigning Doc . I can,t see why people don,t understand that . We just can,t afford it even with a 130 mil payroll and He has made it clear in my mind he has no intention of coming back
So you deal now or take the 2 picks and spend money and take another shot . I look at the lineups of the 3 teams ahead of us and the lineup we have with some FA,s and I still don,t see us anybetter than 3rd
OH miracles do happen even in baseball , When was the last one ?? 69
"I said in my posts that trading Doc is better than letting him walk. That is pretty obvious but it really is not obvious to a lot of people that trading Halladay is not likely to make our team better. Even if we do well in the trade, it's not very likely to make us better as a team. It isn't impossible to hit the jackpot, get lucky and get three studs, but better chances of getting one or none. I definitely like trading for guys in the MLB better than prospects at this point.... guys like Martin etc.... Of course we can only get what other teams are willing to give."
Judging by your recent thoughts, I think you have alot more enthusiasm about this upcoming year, me not so much. I don't really think we need anything for now, I just want the best overall package, even if that means prospects in A ball. I don't really need any immediate returns in that trade to be satisfied. I do feel we'll do better than last year just through addition by subtraction, but by no means am I getting my hopes up to anything close to a run.
"That's all well and good. I love signing deals with undervalued players. Heck, in our league I'm the guy that drafted probably younger than anyone, because I believe in finding bargains. I take no issue with that. I just take slight issue with the people who seem to assume that if we sign a high upside player on a one year deal, that the player will show sme loyalty to the organization. That if we sign him for this year and he does good we can automatically get him for next year, well we can't. You're right, we could trade them at the deadline, but it'd obviously be to a team in contention which would mean getting prospects... so no help for 2011 really."
Yeah people are naive in thinking about loyalty at all in sports. Its business first and looking out for number 1. How many players ever just play for one team....very rare. And then you get a 1 year deal contract, its both the player and the team looking to benefit from that type of deal, there's no feelings of loyalty in those kind of signings.
"But you're right, teams need to try those kinds of deals and I agree with the closer thing too. It still boggles my mind how we didn't trade Accardo after his 30 save season, when we had multiple other great bullpen arms."
That's a deal where JP missed out.
"OH miracles do happen even in baseball , When was the last one ?? 69"
I consider what the Rockies did in 07 & the Rays last year, miracles.
I'd say the Rockies of '07 qualify. This has been a great thread to follow, great posting with quality insights. I remember zaunbie banging the trade Accardo drum last off season and the same probably would apply this off season with Frasor. Frasor has shown a better track record and perhaps has even more value. I can't wait to see AA in action.
PS - Chris, you beat me to the punch.
