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    • Report Card #16: The Final Verdict
  • To:All
  • Oct-16
  • curtner

Before I get started, here are my choices for AL & NL MVP:

AL: Joe Mauer
NL: Albert Pujols (best hitter in MLB)

And here are my choices for AL & NL Cy Young Award:

AL: Zack Greinke (best pitcher in MLB)

NL: Tim Lincecum

My choice for AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Bailey. I think he should trounce the competition. If we didn't need him so badly I would probably try to convince him to run for governor.

My choice for NL Rookie of the Year: Don't care much.

Sorry to keep you waiting for the report card. But now that business is over we can address the final 2009 grades of our Oakland A's. Please keep in mind that I am not a homer like Mychael Urban, just a critical fan that tries to look objectively rather than skew grades for favored players, even if they are favored regardless of performance by the A's organization & radio announcers. After all, the A's did finish 75-87, so the grades need to reflect that record.

Team Hitting: C+
Team Pitching: B-
Team Defense: D
Fisher & Company: F
Geren: B
Beane: B

Team MVP: Andrew Bailey. I don't want to imagine how bad the A's season would have been without him.

Most blame for the season: Orlando Cabrera

Below are hitters who have played any part of this season with the A's ranked by hitting bases average (HBA) based on the formula (TB + BB + SB - CS) / (AB + BB), keeping in mind that the MLB HBA for 2009 was .481, compared to .734 for Pujols & .644 for Mauer. For each position player listed their grade follows their HBA.

Holliday: .541 (only includes his time with the A's to better judge his hitting with us), A+

Davis: .532, A

Patterson: .519, B+

Cust: .512, B+

Hairston: .503 (includes his time with both the Padres & A's to better determine his value going forward), B

Barton: .484, C

Kennedy: .481, C

Powell: .431, C

Pennington: .476, C-

Giambi: .464 (only includes his time with the A's to better judge his time with us), D-

Suzuki: .458, F

Ellis: .455, F

Sweeney: .454, F

Garciaparra: .429, F

Carson: .429, F

Crosby: .420, F

Everidge: .419, F

Cabrera: .417 (only includes his time with the A's to better judge his hitting with us), F

Buck: .391, F

Cunningham: .286, F

Petit: .258, F

Chavez: .161, F

Denorfia: .000, F

Munson: .000, F

Here are the grades for our pitchers according to ERA, keeping in mind that the MLB median ERA for 2009 was 4.34:

Bailey: A+

Wuertz: A+

Ziegler: A+

Breslow: A+

Outman: A+

Cameron: A+

Kilby: A+

Meloan: A+

Rodriguez: A+

Braden: A-

Tomko: A-

Gray: A-

Anderson: B+

Cahill: F

G. Gonzalez: F

Mazzaro: F

E. Gonzalez: F

Casilla: F

Eveland: F

Mortensen: F

Blevins: F

Giese: F

Gallagher: (only includes his time with the A's to better judge his pitching with us), F

Marshall: F

Reinecke: F

I think the A's should shoot for playing our most promising position player prospects where we have a need to start the regular season. The challenge is finding room for Patterson, Barton, Carter, Wallace, & Powell in the same batting lineup. So if we make no moves during the offseason I am suggesting this:

RF Davis

2B Patterson

1B Barton

DH Cust

CF Hairston

LF Carter

3B Wallace

C Powell

SS Pennington

Reserves: Ellis, Kennedy, Suzuki, Sweeney.

This means that I favor the A's offering no more than about $3.5 million for one year to Kennedy as long as he agrees that he will not be a regular player. His value will be to replace someone who needs a rest, is in a slump, or gets injured. Notice that Chavez, Crosby, & Garciaparra are not on the team. I think the best thing for the A's to do at this point is to eat the last year of Chavez's contract. If he is finally healthy, which is a big if, a change of scenery might do him a world of good.

However, the A's certainly have the $ to upgrade our hitting. Looking at the above lineup I would say that SS is our weakest link. Marco Scutaro would be the perfect upgrade for the A's at what I think would be an affordable price. If we can sign Scutaro for no more than about $6.1 million per year I think this ought to be the #1 priority that must be done this offseason. We probably won't reach the playoffs with Scutaro, as the team would still need more time to gel & mature, but with Scutaro the A's would have a shot at reaching maybe about 83 wins in 2010. Otherwise, we won't come close to that total. Plus fans love Scutaro.

With Scutaro on the team this would be my preferred batting order:

RF Davis

SS Scutaro

2B Patterson

DH Cust

CF Hairston

1B Barton

LF Carter

3B Wallace

C Powell

With that lineup Pennington would be my primary reserve player, joining Kennedy, Suzuki, & Sweeney. Notice Ellis is not on the team. He is probably now past his prime, but he does have trade value due to his good BA. The A's could get a nice return by trading Ellis, even if it is for nothing more than good prospects. For that matter, Suzuki & Sweeney also have high enough batting averages to be dealt & get a nice return. There are definitely several NL teams & a few AL teams with low enough team batting averages that could result in good trades for the A's if we trade any of these three players. Another thing to entice other teams about Suzuki is his good RBI total. That total is suspicious to me because Suzuki has not been good at driving in runs until this year, so the difference may have been that he had the advantage in 2009 of Davis, Holliday & Cust hitting in front of him for much of the year. Also, Suzuki during the first half of 2009 normally batted far enough down in the batting order that he was not penalized by Cabrera being near the top of the lineup with his poor OBP & base running. That is why I am suspect about Suzuki's RBI total carrying forward into next year, especially given his low HBA, which unfortunately Sweeney & Ellis also share, with Sweeney having the lowest HBA of the three.

My preferred starting rotation for the A's would be:

SP Braden

SP Anderson

SP Tomko

SP Bailey

SP Wuertz

My closer would be Devine. The rest of my bullpen would feature Ziegler, Breslow, Gray, Cameron, Kilby, & Meloan.

Always glad to receive your responses, so what do you think?


Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
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  • Oct-16
  • rudirules
You give the team a D for defense, then put their three best defenders on the bench for next season. Sounds like a disaster.
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  • Oct-16
  • curtner
Your assertion is right but I disagree with your conclusion. The added firepower in the lineup would more than make up for the defensive shortcomings by a long shot. And certainly Wallace can't be much worse than Kennedy defensively at 3B. As far as Patterson at 2B, it is true he did not look good during the limited time he played there with the A's in 2009, but he did have a .988 FP in 48 games at 2B with the River Cats so there is hope for him. If he can do .988 at 2B with the A's next year at 2B I'll gladly take it given his hitting abilities. And I would rather have Carter in LF than Sweeney anywhere in the OF regularly because I believe Carter will succeed big time with the stick, while Sweeney is not a good base runner and has little power...basically what you call a banjo hitter. Regarding Powell, he does not have the FP of Suzuki, but he is better than Suzuki in throwing out baserunners by a long shot with his cannon arm. Plus Powell also is known for calling a good game, according to the pitchers.

Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
Edited Oct-16   by  curtner
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  • Oct-16
  • catfish71

As soon as I got to the part about signing Scutaro (LOL) for $6.1 million it was clear your mental train had derailed. Last year was his career best and it still wasn't all that great and he tapered off dramatically in the 2nd half. He's a career utilityman.

The A's tied a major league record with 5 straight seasons of fewer than 100 errors and had only 105 this year. Absent Kennedy's butchery at 3b, they'd have set the record.

Carpenter and Wainright both were better than Lincecum and their team won their division and they both pitch in a hitter's park.

And Cabrera most blame for the season? Did you forget the $13 million man, Holliday?

Cahill gets an F? A 21 year old who finished off the season strongly and had double digits in wins as a rookie?

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  • Oct-16
  • curtner

My mental train has not derailed. It is still running around it’s circular track.

You need to double check on Scutaro. He played 143 games with a .984 FP in 2009. His HBA was .503, meaning he was an above average hitter this year playing full time. That puts him exactly at the same level Scott Hairston after including his very good #s with the Padres this year.

Scutaro is above average for someone with 680 TPA in:
Runs (100)
BB (90)
BA (.282)
OBP (.379)
OPS (.789)
NP (2,768)
SB% (73.7%)
His BB to SO ratio is outstanding: 90 BB compared to 75 SO.

Scutaro is below average for someone with 680 TPA in:
SO (75)
GDP (12)

So I would give Scutaro a B, which is a lot better than any other option we have at 2B. And someone he gets a B from me deserves up to $6.1 million a year in today’s market. These stats are certainly a lot better than Cabrera!

I like LIncecum better than Carpenter & Wainwright because even if you want to discount LIncecum’s ERA due to ballpark comparisons, Lincecum had better BB to SO ratio than Wainwright, plus Lincecum wins it over Carpenter because Lincecum threw 32.2 more innings than Carpenter, as Carpenter only threw 192.2 IP.

I think Holliday got a really unfair rap with the A’s. I accurately predicted Holliday would not hit as many HRs Oakland as he did in Colorado. But Holliday was the best hitter to wear an A’s uniform last year, as his .541 HBA proves. But as for more traditional stats Holliday, I wish all our starting position players had:

.378 OBP
.454 SLG
.286 BA
80.0% SB %
.831 OPS

Because if all our hitters did that we would probably had ranked second in runs scored in MLB to the NY Yankees.

Cahill did not finish off strongly. He was terrible in his last game. Yes he pitched well in a few games prior to that, but Cahill was simply too inconsistent this year, as his 4.63 ERA demonstrates. Unless he performs strongly during Spring Training he should open the 2010 season with the River Cats. That would be good for him and his career if he has a rough Spring. But there is trade value to Cahill due to his 10 Ws, despite his high ERA. There are enough teams in MLB with high ERAs that could be enticed into a beneficial trade for the A’s if they can by lured by Cahill’s Ws. But hopefully they won’t look at his ERA, which was worse than the team ERA of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who ranked #25 in team ERA at 4.59.

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  • Oct-16
  • catfish71

No, it clearly has not only derailed but has gone over a cliff. Cahill in AAA next year, LOL. He had a poor start in his last game, yet lowered his ERA by well over 1/2 a point in the last 6 weeks of the season. 16 quality starts, over 170 IP as a 21 year old, yet he gets an F. I'd assume you're attempting (and failing miserably) to become a comedian, but your comments are only unintentionally funny, reflecting nothing more than abject ignorance.

Report Card for Curtner's Report Card Analyses=F-. I won't be bothering with you any more.


Edited Oct-16   by  catfish71
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  • Oct-16
  • curtner

OK, Cahill had a good August, 4.23 ERA, book ended by a bad 6.66 ERA in July & a bad 4.62 ERA in September. And Oakland is a pitcher's ballpark.

Look, I hope Cahill has a strong year in 2010. But if he struggles in Spring Training I think it would be in his best interest not to start the season with the A's. It worked with Braden in 2007. I don't think the A's should continue on automatic pilot planning to have Cahill start the season with the A's.

By the way, I managed to make 5.5% in my retirement savings investments in CY 2008, beating the market by a long shot (I sold my stocks in early October) only to lose 25.0% the first three months of this year. Since you like to slice & dice, maybe I can convince the financial institutions involved to ignore the 25.0% loss & give me my $ back.

But that is not how the real world works. The fact is Cahill had an up and down year, but more down than up, so he very well may need some more work away from the MLB level if he hopes to become the pitcher that was expected.

Anyway, I'm glad I made your laugh. But I feel very bad you gave me an F. I'll try harder next time to please you....maybe in my next life!

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  • Oct-16
  • glusv

I noticed in grading the pitchers your curve was either/or, no middle. We are duty bound to bring this to the attention of the Honor Review Board, a past professor with this type of distorted curve was found to be accepting bribes. We will inform you of the Board's decision Monday a.m., since you are so close to tenure hopefully a decision will be rendered in your favor.

Secondly, unfortunately it is not feasible for our fund to return your 25% loss, we have excessive expensives, mainly long vacations in Europe, specifically Monte Carlo.

Seriously, BB has noticed the weak starting pitching. He was quoted in one of my links praising the bullpen but expressed concern over the number of innings they were forced to pitch. He did mention the starters have got to go deeper in the games. And I did like your observation about McAfee, it defintely is one of if not the best stadium in MLB for pitchers and ERA's should reflect that. Our pitching staff playing 50% of their games at McAfee enjoys a big advantage over the season, of course the opposite is true for a hitter.


Edited Oct-16   by  glusv
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  • Oct-17
  • fairmo
Not you glus but curtner...Andrew Bailey as a starter along with Wuertz? Do you have half a brain? They're both back end of the bullpen pitchers. That sums up that absurd conclusion on this team for next yr. Just stop. You're way way way way way way way way way way behind.
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  • Oct-17
  • ellisgg
how does anybody still listen to this guy after he doesnt include our best players in these made-up lineups with all our triple A prospects? i stopped after he suggested holliday as our leadoff hitter ...
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  • Oct-17
  • pdmtasfan
hairston in CF? Have you seen this guy play defense? OMG.
Here is Curtner's report card"
Knowledge: F
Insight: F
Thought Process: A
Mental Illnes: A
Total Grade: F
I truly believe you just put stuff out there to get a reaction, kind of like Michael Savage.
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  • Oct-17
  • oaktown11
You gave the team defense a D? That is only only thing i can really disagree with on this topic. The leauge average for fielding percentage was .984. The A's fielding percentage was .983. You weren't far off but I would have to give them a C or C-. Other than that this was a good assessment.
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  • Oct-19
  • curtner

LOL!!!!
I realize there aren’t grades in the middle range for our pitchers. I graded based on the fact that most team ERAs tend to fall in about the 4.05 to 4.55 ERA range, & the A’s don’t have many pitchers in that range. However, if the Honor Review Board should be upset by anything it should be that I overlooked a pitcher, in which I now grade:

Springer: (only his time with the A’s to better judge his pitching with us). B+

And I am not happy that my wish for a return of my 25% loss is being disregarded simply because of your lavish expenses all across Europe, including Monte Carlo. You probably have each arm around a high priced bimbo right now. My wife wants to go to Monte Carlo & now I can’t afford to take her. That is in spite of the fact that I told her I was related to Bill Gates before we were married & that I was filthy rich. (That is at least half true, I am related to a distant deceased relative that I met named Bill Gates & have actually attended the Gates reunion in Michigan). Needless to say my wife is disappointed in me. Life s@cks. Can you at least spare a dime?

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  • Oct-19
  • curtner

Okay, since your Dad lived in Detroit , is named after Ty Cobb, you got Sweet Lou’s autograph in the first game you ever attended & your Grandma dated Gehringer I will show mercy.

I didn’t initially offer explanations for my pitching rotation because I was having formatting problems when my posting was longer, so I had to delete that portion. When I did the deletion & made the posting shorter the formatting was OK. So here is the explanation for my starting rotation:

The A’s should try to sign Tomko, but for no more than about $6.4 million per year. Duchscherer should be a non roster invitee to Spring Training should another team not sign him. If he is a non roster invitee he should be given every opportunity to make the starting rotation. But his condition is unfortunately too unpredictable for the A’s to get into free agent bidding over him. I also don’t list Outman due to the likelihood that he won’t be available until late 2010. Also notice that Cahill & Gio aren’t listed. They are simply too inconsistent and unless they perform strongly during Spring Training they should open the season with the River Cats. However, there is trade value to Cahill due to his racking up 10 Ws, & Gio due to his high SO ratio to IP ratio, even though both of these pitchers had high ERAs. So there are enough teams in MLB with high ERAs that could be enticed into beneficial trades for the A’s if these teams can be lured by the limited positives Cahill & Gio accomplished. Also notice I don’t mention Mazzaro except to now say he should not start the season with the A’s unless he performs well during Spring Training. But I don’t see anything in Mazzaro’s numbers that would entice a good trade for the A’s. I’ve listed Bailey & Wuertz as starting pitchers because they were so outstanding & dominating this year that they are the best candidates out of our relievers to be converted into starting pitchers. Not only does converting them into starting pitchers save the team $ from having to sign other free agent starting pitchers, but the A’s have a huge reservoir of good relief pitchers, so much so that there is not room on the active roster for all of them to start the season. Examples include, in no particular order, Hodsdon, Gissell, Rodriguez, Storey, Hernandez, Patterson, Demel, Benacka, Haigwood & Schroeder. So if we don’t convert Bailey & Wuertz into starting pitchers the logjam in the bullpen will be even greater. We could trade some of the relievers, but it is hard to get in return a good starting pitcher or starting position player by only offering a relief pitcher. And if Bailey and Wuertz succeed as starting pitchers like I think they can, then the A’s might be the surprise team in MLB in 2010. But even with Bailey & Wuertz as starting pitchers, I am very confident that the pitchers listed on the active roster for relievers would again give the A’s one of the game’s best bullpens in 2010.

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  • Oct-19
  • curtner

I admit that the outfield defense may suffer some with the lineup I suggested, but not as much as some might think. Remember that Hairston was playing hurt for us much of the time after his arrival. But I need to get Carter into the lineup, & LF is a good place for him, with Davis in RF. My lineup emphacizes better hitting for the A's, which is our biggest need going into 2010.

I do get a kick out of some of the blows over the head I receive, but please don't compare me to that nut Michael Savage. At least give me that much credit!

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  • Oct-19
  • curtner
I gave our team a D for defense because out of 30 MLB teams only 8 had a worse FP. But thanks for your response.
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  • Oct-19
  • glusv

Sure, I can spare a dime. :):)

Tell your wife Monte Carlo is right next to Nice (pronounced "neice").My wife and I spent a week in Nice last April then up to Paris. The beach at Nice is 9 kilometers long, topless, and is called Pebble Beach of the Riviera. if you look it up the area is adjacent to the Italian border, really scenic. We did go to the Casino at Monte Carlo, and also went to Cannes. A great trip. The area is the French Riviera and really worth while seeing. Just to clear things up the topless beach is both men and women. LOLOL. Actually Nice is called Cote d'Azur which means blue coast, the water is turquoise and warm. My wife prefers the French Riviera while I prefer Paris, so a good vacation.


Edited Oct-19   by  glusv
Edited Oct-19   by  glusv
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  • Oct-19
  • curtner

Good for you...glad you had a great trip. Sounds like I'll need a few more dimes to before I can pony up what I need to do it. My wife is attending UC Santa Cruz, I just helped put my son through a private computer school & next year my daughter starts college...need I say more?

Never been to Europe but hope to someday. The closest thing to your trip to the beautiful French Riviera was our trip to Cancun the Spring of last year. Best vacation we had ever been on, except as nice as our beaches were, they certainly aren't as scenic as where you were at! However, my wife is the jealous type, so I might get in trouble at a topless beach with her....but then again maybe not because it was her idea to go the the Exotic Erotic Ball this weekend.

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  • Oct-19
  • fairmo

I suppose it may help for you to know that Bailey WAS a starter in the minors and wasn't fairing well at all. It was suggested he go to the pen and he thrived in Sacto in that roll. He earned the closer's role and that won't change unless Devine proves to be better Wuertz has been in the pen for over 7 years. That won't change. These aren't things that took CSI to find out These were pretty well documented. Hence why your suggestion is just flat out absurd. Bailey and Wuertz to start? Not happening. This removes a boat load of credibility in your assessments man. Make reasonable suggestions. Not dope induced, fly by the seat of the pants suggestions. It's also savvy to consider the A's defense among the best in baseball and one of the best parts of the team. Ryan Sweeney's Hr robbery of Ian Kinsler alone gives rise to a favorable conclusion of the A's defense. But you fail and conclude they get a "D" rating for their collective D? Their defense is outwardly stated as one of baseball's best. These are far-fetched and flat our terrible grades by you, regarding your "favorite" team. A sad case indeed.

Frejus is the best "city" in the Riviera. Paris' best area is the 5th Arrondissenment. Seeing Jim Morrison's grave marker is pretty slick, along with the Musee d"Orsay. One of the best museums I've seen. Get up at 5am daily so you can walk the streets of Paris and watch it "wake up," while getting coffee and a bagguette.

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  • Oct-19
  • glusv
Yes, Paris should be walked, only way to see it. 5 is a lot of people's favorite, we stayed in #6, St. Germain. I like to run and enjoy a morning run at The Luxemborg Gardens, also in general The Left Bank holds more charm for us. If memory serves me right Morrison is buried in the Pere-Lachaise Cemetery, years ago I was there but haven't gone in recent visits. Have you rode the Chunnel train from Paris to London? We did that two years ago, something I really enjoyed. It leaves and arrives Paris @Gare du Nord, London @St. Pancras, and I highly reccommend it fairmo. it's about 21/2 hours and really cool, slows down to 70 mph under the English Channel. Anyway, not a travel forum, sorry, get me started on Paris and hard to shut me up.

Edited Oct-19   by  glusv
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