"but I just don't buy it.."
I appreciate that.
Each year for the last 4 I have projected this org's losses within 7%. Of course, when I made my projections I usually felt the roster was set. But even last year after getting Mondesi, I still came dang close.
This year, there are a few other factors that I have yet to mention over the winter that play into it too Tiz.
One, I don't believe Ollie is going to be as effective. Oh, I think his K rate will be high and I think he'll win 12 or more, but I don't see Ollie as a smart player. He will come into ST with too much confidence, he will enter the year thinking his arm will get him out of jams, and he will hit more of the 2003 type bumpy roads. As I stated in earlier threads over the winter, I expect to see Ollie on the DL some this year.
Two, I think Redman will be the ace this year. The good part about this is that he'll probably leave games where he has a lead (12 - 16 games) and then it will be up to the pen to nail down the W. The bad thing about it will be that Redman allows too many balls in play and our D is going to be one of the worst in MLB.
Three, Wells probably won't come out of his funk until after the AS game. He knows he is trade bait, he knows he needs to perform to get $$, and he still has lingering questions about his stuff that will get to him early in the year. I see Wells on the DL early for a short period and then him putting up #2 type starter numbers from June or so on.
Four, everyone just has to admit the 5th starter scenario is a real gamble. The org countered that with the 4-man rotation plan. But, the rotation guys won't allow it - they aren't going to allow the org to ruin their arms. I know that for a fact. Count on DL to be filling the 5th role with no less than 6 guys this year in an attempt to put someone on the field to help the team. I think Ryan will end up in the pen and I think Williams will have a mediocre season. The sleeper is Ritchie.
Five. as said above, our D is just plain awful. With the addition of Lawton we can almost bank on the worst D in MLB, especially with Jason's numbers gone. Bad D's lose games.
Six. Mac has produced well with his past groups. This year will be VERY trying for Mac and when Mac gets under the gun, he tinkers.. he tinkers too much. I expect Mac to come unglued about the end of June (look at the schedule from April 15th to June 26th - whoa). The second half will end up being a return of 'the freak show' of 1997 (not the good freak show unfortunately).
Seven - and most important. I don't think this pen is going to live up to our high expectations. Johnston, Gonzo, Mesa - there guys aren't really producers.. some will argue with me about Gonzo but we have shown this winter why Gonzo's numbers don't add up. I expect this to be his breakout year but I think he does too which is going to put a lot of pressure on him. Too much I think. Mesa and Johnston are 'who knows' players.. you're never sure who your going to get with them.
Further, we will have too much movement going on in the pen this year for the stability we need. Vogelsong in/out, Williams in/out, Peterson up/down, Bradley up/down, Stewert in/out.. it just isn't in the cards to have a repeat of 2004.
I think the bright spots will be Redman, Santiago (believe it or not), Ritchie, Wells in the second half, Ollie overall, Castillo breaking out a bit more offensively, Ward showing new youth, Macko having his breakout year, and Torres with his knockout punch.
Failures (not producing to our expectation) I expect: Wiggy, Cota, Tike, Lawton, Bay will have a turn down year, Fogg, Craig, and Jack.
JMHO
Edited 2/23/2005 11:06 am ET by sunnfun1
