Boston Red Sox rumors 2013: What the Mike Napoli deal could mean for the Red Sox
By Ben Shapiro
on January 17, 2013 at 4:52 PM, updated January 17, 2013 at 4:54 PM
After over a month of negotiations the Boston Red Sox finally signed Mike Napoli to a one-year contract.
It finally happened.
Thursday morning the Boston Red Sox and free agent Mike Napoli finally agreed on the terms of a contract.
It was a far cry from the three-year, $39 million deal that was initially proposed.
In the end, Napoli got a one-year deal that will pay him a base salary of $5 million, with incentives that could push the deal as high as $13 million.
The Red Sox now have a starting first baseman, but only for one season.
Is there another deal in the works?
The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham reported Wednesday that the Red Sox could match up well with the Seattle Mariners and make a trade.
Since the conclusion of the 2012 season the Mariners have acquired players such as Michael Morse, Raul Ibanez and Kendrys Morales. All are expected to help boost an offense that was one of the league's weakest in 2012.
That leaves the Mariners with two players who were both at one time expected to contribute to varying degrees, but now may find themselves fighting for at-bats or even a roster spot.
Mike Carp and Justin Smoak are both viable backup options at first base. Given the Red Sox's concerns about Mike Napoli's health, having a decent backup could come in handy.
Carp, a 26-year old left-handed hitter, has never been able to establish himself as a regular starter over parts of four big league seasons.
Carp would be more easy to attain, and is probably not a future starter at first base or the outfield, where he has also spent time in the field.
Smoak, a 26-year old switching hitting former first-round draft choice, is a different story.
On July 9, 2010 he was the key cog in a trade between the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers. The Rangers sent Smoak and some other prospects to Seattle, which in turn sent starting pitcher Cliff Lee (along with Mark Lowe) to the Rangers.
That's a hefty price to pay for Smoak's services, and in spite of the fact that he hasn't developed into the same type of player as another former Rangers' switch hitting first baseman, Mark Teixeira, Smoak is still young enough to have a high upside.
Last season Smoak hit 19 home runs and drove in 51 runs in 132 games. He only hit .217 and his on-base percentage was an anemic .290. Those aren't the types of numbers the Red Sox have traditionally chased after, but Smoak still has time to develop and improve.
The question is whether or not the Mariners would want to give up on a player for whom they dealt Cliff Lee, and whether or not the Red Sox are willing to pay that price.
Carp will be a less costly player to acquire. The Mariners don't have as much invested in him and his ceiling is thought to be lower than Smoak's.
Another way Napoli's final deal could impact Boston's decision is that it may lessen the chances that the Red Sox deal one of their catchers.
The Red Sox' concerns about Napoli's health, and specifically the health of his hip, caused the team to tie his incentives to his durability. That suggests it would be unlikely that Napoli spends any time behind the plate.
The Red Sox currently have three options at catcher.
Jarrod Saltalamachhia is the returning starter. The former top-prospect mashed 25 home runs in 2012. Earlier Thursday, WEEI reported that the Red Sox inked Salty to a one-year, $4.5 million contract and avoided salary arbitration with the impending 2014 free agent.
The team signed career backup Dave Ross to a two-year deal and also has prospect Ryan Lavarnway, who they hope can eventually assume starting duties.
Had Napoli been healthy and able to fulfill the Red Sox initial three-year offer, the team could have potentially used him behind the plate. That would have created a surplus of catchers.
With that surplus the Red Sox could have dealt either Saltalamachhia, who will be a free agent after the 2013 season, or Lavarnway, who could be fairly valuable to teams looking for a young catching prospect.
Both of those scenarios seem unlikely now.
One other aspect of the new Napoli deal is the length. Even if Napoli hits all of his incentives and earns $13 million this season, the contract will still expire when the season ends.
The Red Sox now have $13 million more in payroll space than they once thought they would have available for both the 2014 and 2015 seasons.
Could that impact the team's willingness to pursue a long-term deal with Jacoby Ellsbury?
What if Ellsbury has a 2013 season similar to the one he had in 2011? That would make him a very appealing and very expensive player.
The Red Sox haven't displayed an unwillingness to spend money, they just seem hesitant to sink a lot of money over a lot of years on a single player. The ghosts of the Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and John Lackey deals are no doubt looming large in the minds of Sox brass.
That doesn't mean that they'll never sign another player to a big free -contract though.
If Ellsbury isn't re-signed, other potential free agents next season could command big contracts. Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson are both big names that could be available next offseason. There's even a chance that Roy Halladay will hit the open market.
Payroll flexibility doesn't just impact a team's options with regards to free agents. It allows for greater trade flexibility as well.
A team could acquire players who are already under existing big-money contracts, or deal for players who are free agents down the road with confidence in their ability to eventually sign them to lucrative extensions.
Every move the Red Sox make has a domino effect on future moves. The final incarnation of Mike Napoli's contract is one that fans won't know the full impact of for quite some time.
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