I was talking about this stat a couple days ago with one of my friends. As Buck would say it doesn't factor the "want to". The Orioles are a mathematical enigma.

The actual standings as far as they affect us:

A.L. East........ W-L PCT GB
New York..... 66-46 .589 ...
Baltimore..... 61-52 .540 5 1/2
Tampa Bay... 60-52 .536 6

Wild Card....... W-L PCT GB
Baltimore...... 61-52 .540 ...
Detroit........... 61-52 .540 ...
Oakland......... 60-52 .536 1/2
Tampa Bay.... 60-52 .536 1/2
L.A. Angels.... 60-53 .531 1

According to the "Pythagorean W-L" formula, the MFYs "should be" 66-46, the Rays "should be" 60-52, the Tigers "should be" 60-53, the A's "should be" 60-52, and the Angels "should be" 62-51.

The Orioles, who've been out-scored 520-473, "should be" 52-61, however. :)

If, I'm sorry, when the Orioles win the AL East this year, I wonder if the MFY will lobby the commisioners office to start going be the pythagorean standings instead of the actual standing. Sounds crazy, but people have been talking about doing away with the electoral college for Presidential elections for years. If every vote should count, why should'nt every run?

The MFYs (67-46) have already beaten the Jays in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 53-60. They've lost five games in a row and eight of their last ten. The Orioles are now eight games ahead of the Jays (and 5 1/2 ahead of Boston).

After the Royals leave town the Red Sox will be in Baltimore on the 14th, 15th and 16th. The Jays will play at Camden Yards on the weekend of August 24-26.

An easy road trip to Detroit and Arlington Texas will fall between those two series. lol

What do we care though? We'll probably be facing the Tigers and/or Rangers in the playoffs anyway.

"CC Sabathia, the ace of the New York Yankees pitching staff, is headed to the disabled list with stiffness in his pitching elbow.

Yankees manager Joe Girardi announced the move Saturday after the Yankees beat the Toronto Blue Jays 5-2." - ESPN

CC is the MVP of the Yankees. He's like Longo with the Rays it's the one guy they absolutely can't lose.

He's not as valuable to them as Robinson Cano is, IMO, but he is the MFYs most dominating starter. Kuroda (10-8, 3.24), Hughes (11-9, 4.10), Nova (11-6, 4.70) and Freddy Garcia (6-5, 4.85) is all right-handed. Maybe David Phelps (2-3, 2.42) will join them but he's a righty also.

They'll probably be forced to trade for somebody.

I'd say Cano is their best player but CC is their MVP. Take Cano out of the lineup and it's still pretty ridiculous. Take CC out of the rotation and it's really mediocre.

They signed Derek Lowe to take Sabathia's place in the rotation.

Before the Indians released him yesterday, Lowe had started 21 games for them and pitched 119 innings giving up 156 hits, walking 45 and striking out 41. He had an 8-10 record with Cleveland after a fast start (4-1; 2.25 ERA in March and April). For the year, Lowe's ERA is 5.52 and his WHIP is 1.689.

I'm just glad the Orioles didn't bite on him. He's no CC Sabathia, obviously.

I'll be eagerly awaiting your take on the MFYs signing of Derek Lowe to replace CC Sabathia in their rotation after placing Sabathia on the DL. Does this improve their rotation?

"They signed Derek Lowe to take Sabathia's place in the rotation."

So, I guess that means that Lowe will face Dempster and the Rangers on Monday? Should be an interesting slugfest, final score 11-9 Rangers I predict. lol

By most reliable standards Lowe has been the worst starter in MLB this season. Matusz, Arrieta and Britton have been shellacked but Lowe is neither young nor injured. He's just a bad pitcher.

I hope they send him to the mound every fifth day.

"Does this improve their rotation?"

About as much as Blanton would have improve ours.

I think Blanton would have made a better showing for "worst starter" if he was in the AL.

bump. let's keep this thread going. I want Bill James to have sleepless nights.

The Orioles have scored 515 runs and given up 560 in their first 123 games. Their record is 67-56. According to the Pythagorean W-L formula, they should be ten games worse: 57-66.

Right now the AL East Standings read:
New York...... 72-51
Tampa Bay.... 68-55
Baltimore...... 67-56
Boston.......... 59-64
Toronto......... 56-66

Based on the "runs for/runs against" formula, we should be looking at:
New York...... 71-52
Tampa Bay.... 69-54
Boston.......... 65-58
Toronto......... 58-64
Baltimore...... 57-66

The Orioles are "overachieving" by ten games and the Red Sox are "underachieving" by 6 games.

Baltimore's success has been in its ability to win close games. We owe most thanks to the bullpen, of course.

fangraphs article. Value of Pythag on predicting last month?......no so much.

"Of course, this raises the question of whether we really gain anything from a predictive standpoint heading into September if we focus on a team’s expected winning percentage rather than their actual performance." Bill Petti Aug 22, 2012.

I'm shocked. Shocked I tell ya.

Well tonights loss certainly didn't help us in the Pythagorean standings. Thankfully all those runs scored against us still on count for only 1 loss.

Our starting pitching is sooooo unreliable. I see us slipping out of the wild card race. It saddens me to say that. Showalter needs to spot start Britton, Hunter, and a few others instead of keeping them in the rotation. That is the only time they preform half way decent.

"spot start Britton, Hunter and a few others instead of keeping them in the rotation".

Sooooo, without disrupting one of the best performing bullpens in the league and without interrupting player development on the farm? Name the "others" then list your permanent starters and show me how your "spot starter" concept deploys.

I am soooo interested to see the plan.