This year's team has definitely exceeded my expectations thus far.
At the halfway point of the season, I would have said the exact same thing about the 2005 team - which had the exact same record, 44-37.
The 2005 team went 6-5 in the first 11 games of the second half. Then, beginning with game # 93, the wheels came off. They lost 14 of their next 15 and their record went from 50-42 to 51-56.
At that point, Lee Mazzilli was fired and Sam Perlozzo took over as manager. The Orioles reacted well to the change initially and got their act together again long enough to get back to .500 at 60-60. Then they lost 10 of their next 11, falling to 61-70.
They managed to claw their way back to within six games of .500 at 69-75 - then lost 11 of their next 12 and dropped to 70-86 before winning 4 of the last 6 to finish at 74-88.
So, the fact that this year's team has done better than expected thus far doesn't mean they're going to hold on to a playoff spot. It doesn't necessarily mean they're even going to finish with a .500 record.
But I do think they're going to finish with a better record than the 2005 team. Calabrams' opinion notwithstanding, I don't think this year's club is going to go through any 1-10, 1-11, or 1-14 stretches with Buck at the helm.