A while ago I gave you a list of our past #1 draft choices to show that top prospect does NOT equal future star. We had a 90% failure rate. So does everyone else.
I was told, that's wrong. There's a difference between a #1 draft choice, and a top prospect in all of baseball. Those guys have professional experience, and can be better evaluated by scouts.
Okay, here's Baseball America's list of top prospects from 2007. Five years aught to have been enough time to see how they did.
Baseball America's Top 10 prospects for 2007
Daisuke Matsuzaka, rhp, Red Sox 2. Alex Gordon, 3b, Royals 3. Delmon Young, of, Devil 4. Philip Hughes, rhp, Yankees 5. Homer Bailey, rhp, Reds 6. Cameron Maybin, of, Tigers 7. Evan Longoria, 3b, Devil Rays 8. Brandon Wood, ss, Angels 9. Justin Upton, of, Diamondbacks 10. Andrew Miller, lhp, Tigers
Not really that impressive. Longoria and Upton are the two best, and while both are good, neither is likely to be a Hall of Famer. The prospect crowd here blasted Upton as not that good. The rest range from average to total flop. So, maybe we only have an 80% failure rate.
Top 10 prospect in all of baseball does not equal future star either...but everyone just "knows" TsA, who's #11, is going to be great. Yeah, right, so was Homer Baily. I wonder if Homer had a bad back, gimpy knee, and torn thumb too?
everyone likes to use the 2007 list bc it was a notoriously horrible year for prospects....but good job, youve managed to post someone that everybody already knows about
heres what it comes down to...you don't know jack sh*t about how to build a team
nearly every good team in baseball was constructed by building a solid farm, identifying a core, and then supplementing that core through trades and FA signings...the mets arent done building their core and you're impatient...its that simple
if they never traded those guys, which you keep b*tching about, you would have a team that continued to be imbalanced and you would never be able to AFFORD to patch the holes...building a team means properly allocating your resources and ensuring that you have solid answers at every position...in other words, you don't know what you're talking about
Yes, I can see how having a few good players would cause "imbalance", on the 2013 Mets. We have so few they just wouldn't fit in.
But, let's do it your way.
CatcherSecond BaseSSLF-RF-CF4 Starters after NieseEntire BP.
I call it a hole if you don't have an average quality player at that spot.
Tejada and Murphy are deeply flawed and it's a real stretch to call them average.
So, you got around 16 holes to fill. Tell you what...I'll be generous and call Tejada (can't hit) and Murphy (can't field) average. So that's 14 holes.
Who do we have to fill them? Ah...not much.
Even IF (gigantic if) Harvey and Wheeler are good, and Niese is our #3...who's four and five? Santana is on his last legs, Marcum is a stopgap and a journeyman, Mejia and Familia stink. So who? You think Harvey, Wheeler, Snydergaard and someone else are ALL going to be good major league pitchers? What are you smoking?
What about the BP? Parnell has the best stats, but he can't pitch in close games. Not good for a BP guy. The rest? Guys off the scrapheap, and wannabees who won't be. Right, in addition to all those starters who are ALL going to be great, some other prospects are going to fill up the BP. Wow, doesn't anyone ever flop in your world?
Outfield? Nimmo? DenDenker? Please, they can't hit in the LOW minors. I saw Nimmo...if you think he can play, think again. We saw Kirk N, Doofus Duda, and others. I've seen enough.
So, don't worry. You'll get your wish. A team full of AAA players and prospects. You'll also get year after year of 90 loss teams.
Fred thanks you for your support....well, not really. He thinks you're dumb and can't believe you accept the baloney he spreads, but he's happy you do.
i love how you only added the top 10 and didn't list the rest
11.Tim Lincecum12.Chris Young (the hitter)13.Andrew mccutchen14.Jay Bruce15.Troy Tulowitzski16.Yovani Gallardo17.Reid Brignac18.Carlos Gonzalez19.Andy Laroche20.Mike Pelfrey21.Matt Garza22.Fernando Martinez23.Adam Miller24.Clayton Kershaw25.Billy Butler26.Ryan Braun27.Jose Tabata28.Adam Jones29.Colby Rasmus30.Franklin Morales
There is a whole bunch more that you failed to list. Joey Votto was ranked 43rdHunter Pence 38th and so on...
There are a bunch of good players on that list but of course you don't list those because it wouldn't benefit your argument.. lol!!
i also dont get how murphy and tejada are holes. murphy is a solid hitter and tejada well we don't know what we have with him but he has amazing defense. either way there is no way to judge tejada at this point in his career so thats not a hole.
and 4 starters after niese? harvey is a hole? oh ok. gee is far from a hole. hes a solid back end of the rotation pitcher. and santana is a question mark so again to use that as a hole is stupid when you just simply don't know. also dont get how marcum is considered a hole.
you just completely make things up
So what the heck is your point? OBVIOUSLY, not every prospect isn't going to live up to their potential. That is why you need to stockpile.
What is your great plan?
"I saw Nimmo...if you think he can play, think again."
Hahahahah every scout raved about Nimmo last year but you say he can't play? Thanks genius. What team do you work for?
Delve deeper into that list and here's what you find:
11. Tim Lincecum13. Andrew McCutchen14. Jay Bruce15. Troy Tulowitzki16. Yovani Gallardo18. Carlos Gonzalez21. Matt Garza24. Clayton Kershaw25. Billy Butler26. Ryan Braun28. Adam Jones33. Jacoby Ellsbury38. Hunter Pence43. Joey Votto
I could keep going, but you get the point. Nobody is trying to convince you that every prospect becomes a star. What we're pointing out is that a very high percentage of stars appear on these lists at one point or another.
and w/ that, im done
if you think tda harvey and wheeler are holes, then you're beyond stupid and there is no reason to continue this conversation
what it pretty much comes down to is if you have a top 50 prospect you have about a 40-50% chance of him being a solid MLB player and we got two in that spot. we had 3 back in 07 ( i think) and they all were busts but that was under omar.
another thing is that they aren't even our prospects. they are from other teams which makes me feel they will pan out even more
By the way...the point was that just because someone is a TOP prospect, it doesn't nean you're going to be a star. If those LESSER prospects turned out to be the better players, what does that say about being a TOP prospect? It says, that the scouts are often wrong, that it's all gueswork and opinion, and doesn't mean that much. So why gush over a top prospect if #?? may well be better?
Then, there is the Immortal #22
Fails: 1. Looking at one year.2. Calling Longoria "good."3. Defining players by whether they're HOFers. Is Dickey a HOFer? No. I hope you aren't complaining that he was traded.4. You don't know the definition of "average" in baseball. Here's an actual study, and while it is not end-all and does not include anything, it makes your methods look absolutely ludicrous. http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
" About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail. Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects. About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors. About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors. About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%) About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%) The success rate of prospects (both position player and pitchers) is nearly flat and relatively undifferentiated for players ranked 41-100, and especially those ranked 61-100. Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars. Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars. Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past." http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543845/Prospect_Success_by_Position_medium.pnghttp://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543833/Quintile_Pos_Player_Table_medium.pnghttp://assets.sbnation.com/assets/543809/Decile_Pos_Players_Table2_medium.png <Now fuck off.