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    • Niese Projections
  • To:All
  • 1/24/13
  • LiveWire13

The folks at Mets360 are at it again, this time speculating on what type of numbers Jon Niese will finish with in 2013. I implore you to check it out, if only to admire my magnificent infographic :)

http://mets360.com/?p=14396

Mike

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  • 1/24/13
  • thagreat1
Who is mets360?
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  • 1/24/13
  • TheChosen1

I'm still sceptical on Niese.

I was talking with a co-worker the other day about RA Dickey's knuckleball. He said 'That thing is so nasty that it must mess up teams for days'.

So I got to thinking. I wonder how many times Niese has pitched against the same team, the day after Dickey faced that team....It happened 8 times.

In those 8 games, Niese had 49.2 IP - 2.19 ERA - 1.07 WHIP

In his other 22 starts - 140.2 IP - 3.85 ERA - 1.21 WHIP

Now, of course this isn't an exact science. And eventually I'll calculate the other pitchers pitching after Dickey's starts to see if there is anything to this. But it gives me pause, and makes me want to see Niese pitch another season before I say what type of pitcher he is.


Edited 1/24/13   by  TheChosen1
Edited 1/24/13   by  TheChosen1
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  • 1/24/13
  • DFAB
that is very interesting...I know the bp had the exact same effect when Dickey pitched. I do think Niese will pitch just as good as last year if not better. The thing about Niese is consistency. When he first came up, he showed flashed of being an ace...but then the very next game he gives up 6 runs in 4 innings. He can be VERY dominant if he improves his consistency...which he did last year. If he is just consistent this year, he will put up good numbers again.
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  • 1/24/13
  • 86mex17
Interesting
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  • 1/24/13
  • DFAB

I want Dickey back....

maybe Flores+Familia for Dickey? LOL....

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  • 1/24/13
  • TheChosen1

LOL.

Seriously though, and I (along with you) was one of the biggest supporters in trading Dickey, because I thought we were rebuilding. But it seems that move was the ONLY one we made towards the re-build.

Several more could have and should have been made if we truly are re-building.

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  • 1/24/13
  • murphstates

My biggest concern with Niese is prior to last year he had been hurt by a much higher than average Opponents Batting Average on Balls in Play. Coming into last season it was .333, but last year it dropped 60 points to .272.

All his other peripherals were nearly identical and a couple, HR rate went up and K rate went down, were worse than 2011.

I think his numbers should fall somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 performance.

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  • 1/24/13
  • DFAB

I assume you are referring to Wright as part of the "total rebuild" right? I have mixed feelings about him potentially being part of a total rebuild...but I guess it would depend on what the return was. I feel that the Mets needed to sign Wright either way....they needed a true MET...a true franchise player. He is also young enough to help now AND be a part of the future. We need a defined core and I think we are building a nice one so far with Wrigh, Ike, Niese, Harvey, and D'Arnaud. You can add in Murphy and Tejada to that mix as well.

Now, if Wright were to bring in a package of Profar+Olt+Perez, then I'd seriously consider it.

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  • 1/24/13
  • TheChosen1

Yeah, definitely Wright. trading him alone could have added many players. But I also understand the need and desire to keep him.

But, just to stay with the player of topic, Niese's value may be higher right now than it ever will be, and could have netted us a nice return. I understand that he is a young lefty starter, and those aren't easy to acquire, but again, I'm not convinved that Niese will be as good as he was in 2012.

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  • 1/24/13
  • Gepett0

the problem isnt just that lefties are hard to acquire ....its that our system is barren in terms of LHP prospects

i mean youve got edgin & carson, two relievers, darin gorski, a fringe #6 starter most likely, and steven matz, a guy so far away from the bigs and w/ so many injury concerns that id only give him about a 15% chance of ever even making the bigs, let alone excelling in them (though man is his stuff nasty)....there just is no body that we could replace him w/ and then you are potentially looking at a pretty much right handed rotation for the foreseeable future, which i really dont like

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  • 1/24/13
  • DFAB

If I am trading Niese, I would only do it for 3+ TOP prospects. Some people may laugh at that and say he is a #3 at best and that is way too much to pay for Niese. Here are the reasons why Niese would be VERY valuable to ANY club:

-Young
-Cheap
-Under long term control
-Left handed (quality young LH pitching is a rarity)
-He has shown he can be more consistent

Probably missing something else too...but whatever.

A pitcher like Niese isn't a dime a dozen. I think he will get better and want to keep him...but would also consider trading him for the RIGHT package. An example package would be Olt+Perez+Buckel from Texas.

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  • 1/24/13
  • abbymart

>I think his numbers should fall somewhere between his 2011 and 2012 performance.

Totally agree with you on this

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  • 1/24/13
  • thagreat1
The thing you left out is heexcelled in new York the biggest stage therefore could perform almost anywhere
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  • 1/24/13
  • DFAB
Right..and that is a big feat
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  • 1/24/13
  • thagreat1
Haha not too sure if you were being sarcastic there :)
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/24/13
  • TheChosen1

>>If I am trading Niese, I would only do it for 3+ TOP prospects<<

I hear ya man, but if for example the D-Backs offered Eaton and Pollock, I'm doing it.

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  • 1/24/13
  • marvelousmarvin
Check out Bill James instead. Cy Young with a 3.90 ERA and WHIP over 1.3. Good, but not monster good.
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  • 1/24/13
  • DFAB
Eh...if I'm trading for less than 3 pieces one has to be a good ML player. For example If we traded him for Trumbo, it would be Trumbo + a good prospect.
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  • 1/24/13
  • TheChosen1
I'd be down for something like that. I also think that Eaton fits the 'good ML player' definition. Though he has very limited MLB time.
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