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    • food for thought
  • To:All
  • 12/19/12
  • bbjmparis

In 2012 the Mets were 20-6 when Dickey got the decision.

We were 54-82 When he didn't.

54-82 works out to 64-98 for a full season.

Dickey is gone while the rest of the team is pretty much the same...or worse.

C- Buck is better than Thole, but still not very good.
1b- Davis..our best hope for some offense. I expect him to be better in 2013
2b- Murphy. A disaster in the field. Despite the spin that he's getting better, I don't see it.
His bat fell off too. In 2013 it will be the same old Murphy.
ss- Tejada- A disaster at the plate. A pity patsingles hitter who doesn't walk or steal bases.
A bit better than average in the field. I expect his BA to fall off to around 260 and his
other issues to stay the same. This is a guy we should trade.
3b- Wright will hit a few points over or under 300 and hit around 20 HR's. Just like every year.
He'll be a GG caliber fielder. Our best all round player by far.
LF- Looks like Duda. He looks like doo-doo. He can't hit, is a disaster in the field. Oh, he'll hit
an occasional mistake 450 feet. I expect him to be even worse in 2013...if that's even
possible...he didn't even hit in Buffalo after being sent down for not hitting.
CF- Nieuwenhuise or Valdespin. Kirk can't hit. Valdespin can't catch the ball, and probably
can't hit much either. Not enough AB's to know for sure. Whoever stinks least wins the
job
RF- Hairston & Baxter. Hairston is an excellent 4th outfielder, but hurts you playing every day.
He had a career year in 2012, so you can expect some fall off. Baxter? Haven't seen
enough of him to know. He's not highly thought of by anyone not working in the Mets PR
Department.

BENCH- Pretty thin after Hairston.

STARTING PITCHING Niese-Santana-Gee-Harvey-???

Not a good staff.

Niese is a good pitcher. Winning 13 for the 2012 Mets was like winning 18
anywhere else. He's not a #1 though, and will be hurt by being forced into that role. I hope he can handle the pressure.

Santana- A ghost of what he was. He's now a 5 inning pitcher getting by on craft and guile. His arm is ready to fall off and you can expect him to break down during the season. Think Chris Young

Gee- Who knows if he can even pitch? Coming back from a serious medical condition. We'll see what he has in ST. At best, he was nothing special.

Harvey- Don't expect big things. Now that they've seen him, big league hitters will adjust to what he's doing and pound him. This happens to everybody. Harvey has to show he can adjust back. IF he can, he should be decent to very good...but it's a big if. If he can't, he's just another failed
pitching prospect. That's how most of them end up. I like to think he can make it. I think it's better than 50-50 that he does. Assuming he can adjust back, think something like 8-15 with a ERA around 4. Remember, this is a bad team with no hitting, defense, or BP. All that hurts pitchers who like players who can reach, and catch the ball...and a BP that can actually hold less than a 5 run lead.

#5 ??? Mejia? Familia? Someone else? The job will go to whoever stinks less in ST. SA says
he wants to sign a pitcher. Who's left to sign? IF he gets someone you'll probably say...who?...and need to look him up. Whoever wins the job will stink. Wheeler? He'll get his shot in July and get called up...assuming he looks better un AAA than he did last year. He'll have to go through the same learning curve as Harvey. Only God knows how he'll do and he didn't tell me. However, Baseball history tells me that it is highly unlikely both Harvey and Wheeler will be stars. It's more likely both will flop. Probably not though. Most likely result? One is better than average, one a bit less than average. Don't think Seaver and Koosmam, or Gooden and Darling. Think Niese and a healthy Pelfrey.

BP Don't make me laugh. The usual suspects

Summary- Starting pitching is much worse
Team Defense- Worse with Torres gone...he couldn't do much, but he did catch the ball
Team Speed- Worse with Torres gone. He was the only basestealing threat me had (That a waste of a roster space like Torres leaving hurts us in two areas shows just how bad a team we are,)
Team Offense- Slight improvement as I expect Davis to be better, Hairston to be worse, but Buck is better than Thole. The rest of the team will average out, some playing better, some worse. TDA?
God only knows. The Scouting report says don't expect him to be Mike Piazza. If we are very lucky, maybe he can be Todd Hundley? I don't know. He might turn out to be Choo Choo Coleman.

Prediction....The 2nd half 2012 Mets played far closer to their tallent level than the 1st half Mets that were absurdly lucky with two out rallies. That ended, and we tanked. Davis played well the sexcond half, but it didn't help. We couldn't score. We did nothing to help the BP, nothing to add speed. So, I see no reason why we won't lose between 95-100 games.

Thanks Fred...Thanks Jeff

  • Reply to this Message
  • 12/19/12
  • alfolerud
Do you think Wheeler will be an ace?
  • Reply to this Message
  • 12/19/12
  • PrayedforBay

They still said they are going to get an outfielder and another starting pitcher. If they get 2 respectable players at those 2 positions and maybe add a couple arms to the pen, then I think it can remain a 75 win team.

  • Reply to this Message
  • 12/19/12
  • bbjmparis
Nobody knows what Wheeler will be. That's the point. However, aces are rare. Minor league pitchers with talent, common. You do the math.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 12/19/12
  • bbjmparis

If, if, if.

Sure, if they add good players they will be better.

I see no evidence that they will spend the money. Do you? Spending money is not part of Fred and Jeff's plan.

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  • 12/19/12
  • PrayedforBay

Whether they spend money or not is irrelevant, I'll keep Sandy to his word from his latest interview with Joe and Evan. He said he will get a starting pitcher and an outfielder. How he does it is up to him. Of course we will see what happens, but thats what he said.

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