Most were not too high on Dickey then I showed them this GIF of Dickey's rising knuckleball and here are some of their responses.
Jesus... I have no words.
The end of that looked computer generated lol
Wow. The old adage when facing a knuckleballer is "if it's high let it fly, low let it go." When Dickey is mixing that pitch in there that wouldn't apply.
I can't get over the late movement on that pitch. I just keep watching.
I think I love him
Think I'm hopping on board.
"he is going to turn 38 I guess somehow means hitters will have a better chance of hitting it."
That's only part of the argument 4545_ajd.
I'd like to start with a small preface. I'm a big fan of RA's, this will probably come across as bashing to you guys but I assure it is just an attempt at an unbiased commentary.
Besides being extremely talented, RA Dickey deserves credit for his approach to the game. If anyone has the ability to beat the aging curve it would be RA. He is one of the hardest workers in the game, understands the analytic side of the game as well as the one field components. Plus he does things with a baseball I didn't think possible.
That being said where the caveats come in starts with RA's age and position, not his ability. A lot of it has to do with the volatility of pitching assets (especially old pitching assets) and the fact that he doesn't have a UCL. Pitchers get hurt and miss large chunks of time, it's just a fact of the game now. 30+ year old pitchers with an injury history get hurt even more often and we all know the body doesn't recover the same way at 38 as it does at 28. Additionally Dickey only has 1 year of control which reduces the value of any player unless it is strictly a salary dump. Obviously Dickey is a very talented player and he should have a couple good seasons left in him. There are 30 teams in the MLB that would love to have him but, he is standing in the eye of the storm as a hurricane of uncertainty swirls around him.
It's not that teams don't want Dickey, it's that they don't want to move their elite pieces in AAA (b/c they are on the verge of helping the MLB team and young cheap talent is the best commodity in baseball). These are players that can immediately help teams as much if not more than Dickey but they are cheap under team control for 6 seasons. They're just too valuable to move for a guy on a 1 year deal.
"They're just too valuable to move for a guy on a 1 year deal."
Dickey is going to sign an extension whether he is playing for the Mets, the Blue Jays, the Rangers or Beirut.
But those 2 years will be at market value, not $5M. The value with Dickey is in that first year.
The Jays could go out and sign Dempster, Marcum for 2 years for less money and without giving up anything. There just isn't a large enough incentive when you are going to have to pay him as a FA anyways.
For the Jays d'Arnaud + Dempster/Marcum is better short and long term than JPA + Dickey.
(Thanks for taking the time to read that book I posted btw.)
"Teams give up young, unproven talent all the time in this league to rent impact players."
That's simply not true. It happens but it's very rare.
Wheeler and Brown at the time of the Beltran deal weren't in the same class as d'Arnaud is today. You are comparing a top 40-50 prospect who is years away versus a top 10-20 guy who is MLB ready.
I'd even give the example of the Marcum for Lawrie swap. Lawrie was around 50 at the time of the deal but was a year or two away. That's the kind of player that will be available, not the d'Arnaud's of the MiLB world.
Forgive me for not penciling Dickey's name on the Cy Young every year for the rest of time.
Chances are a team isn't getting 3 years of 2012 Dickey. He's 38 he's going to decline soon, it's just a matter of when it happens (next year, 3 years, 5 years). He may have several seasons at his 2012 level but history shows it is very very very likely it was his peak.
Additionally you are not including the value of an elite prospect in the equation. On average a prospect of d'Arnaud's caliber provides ~$30M in surplus value.
"Chances are a team isn't getting 3 years of 2012 Dickey. He's 38 he's going to decline soon,"
What are you basing his decline on? His age? What signs have you seen that show a possible decline coming?
"The Mets also had far less leverage with Beltran." The Giants got desperate and made a bad trade, I find it hard to believe there is more leverage right now.
"They weren't in contention,"The Mets still aren't.
"they weren't retaining him,"They don't appear eager to retain Dickey either.
"there was no window to negotiate an extension,"That's something Alderson would have to sort out. I can't see teams lining up to increase his trade value. It would take a bidding war and the acceptance of high end prospects going the other way. A scenario that Sandy should be pushing for but isn't in play at the moment.
"he couldn't be offer arbitration (so no compensation) and he wasn't under team control going forward."
The Jays bought a comp pick for like $400k, they simply aren't that valuable especially now that the league has reduced the amount of compensation picks.
Aging curves. Every player in the history of baseball aged and got worse. It's not even really debatable that Dickey will decline.
I'm not saying his performance will fall off a cliff but he will get worse as he gets older, especially in to his 40's.