I had a revelation last night when I looked at nieses stats. I was in the, no way don't trade Niese camp cus hes still young hes a good lefty and signed super cheap for 5 years. But then i came to my senses and thought about it while looking at his stats. His era was 4.40 2 years ago. He's had some injuries, he had durability problems every year where he wore down towards the end except last yr. I remember mgmt was concerned bout his conditioning.
Maybe the nose operation really did help his breathing and conditioning and maybe he really is coming into his own, but i watched most of his games last yr and he still had a few real pathetic ballgames. The one in Toronto was horrendous. He's still not that reliable pitcher that u can think of as a number 2 starter on a winning team. Now if harvey dominates this year and wheeler comes up and does the same, while dickey does his thing again, then niese will be just fine as a solid 3, 4 or even 5 starter but to not trade him for a guy like will myers is absolutely insane. This is Jon niese we're talking bout here, there is nothing dominant about him. He throws hard not super hard, great curve, but no amazing reportoire other than that. Hes just a solid pitcher. R.A. can be good to great the next few yrs, so can harvey and wheeler. I see good potential from Niese but not great like the other 3.
The nose job did help him tremendously, he got better as the season went along as he got in better shape, just imagine how much different it is working out not being able to breathe vs working out being able to breathe properly.
In the past he would struggle down the stretch this year, he got better.
I agree but i still don't trust it completely. He's a met i never beleive someone is actually becoming a legitimately really good player on this team lol
I actually trust Dickey more becuase Dickey has had 3 excellent years. People act like dickey was a one yr fluke. He totally wasnt, with any run support he would have had 15-18 wins both of the previous years. Possibly even 20 on some teams in 2011.
He had the longest quality start streak of anyone in basball last yr before his cy young year. I know hes older and his knuckler is harder, but hes still a knuckler and could be our ace for 2 or 3 yrs. For 12-13 mill a year, youd have to be insane not to take that risk. Niese to me just doenst have the track record and i felt he was much better in april and may then the rest of the year even though he wasnt breaking down. I'd love to keep niese dont get me wrong, i wish the mets could just fill their holes with free agents like everyone else is doing but we are the mets and we arent so trade niese for myers please!
Are you kidding me?Are you expecting 30+ quality starts. Things will happen. He may not be on his game all the time, but he kept us in as many games as anyone would expect from a #3 starter.IMO, I think he's a big part of our future.
I disagree with everything you said.
"Niese to me just doenst have the track record and i felt he was much better in april and may then the rest of the year even though he wasnt breaking down. "
That is because the team was winning in April and May
April 2.81 ERAMay 6.07 ERA
August 2.61 ERASeptember 2.49 ERA
And speaking about quality starts, Niese had a quality start in 73% of his games, that is the 8th best % in all of baseball.
Niese if anything had an underrated season, since he was at his best when the team was at it's worse.
Only Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez and now Dickey have had lower WHIPs for the Mets in a full than Niese had this year since 1999, and all three of them only did it once.
ok lets get one thing straight. If Harvey and Wheeler dont become great pitchers or at least one of them, the mets are a doomed franchise for the next decade.
Therefore we are assuming Harvey and Wheeler will be very good. If we have Dickey who is very good and some solid guys like gee and lannan (maybe a lil santana if hes healthy) rounding out the rotation. We can contend without Niese . Over the yrs we can sign a big free agent pitcher or 2 to replace dickey and whoever else. But if we dont have an offense its all for naught. You mean to tell me you wouldnt take a guy who can possibly hit .300 with 35-40 homers in left field for a guy who is 27 next yr and his best yr was a 3.40 era. He was well over 4 every yr before this. Niese is a nice pitcher but if u dont trade ur nice number 3 pitcher who wil never be a star to KC for a bonafide super prosect ur nuts.
Let me remind u of this met offense. Baxter could be our left fielder! Niewenhuis could be our center fielder! Duda could be in right! Hairston may be re-signed to hit some meaninless solo homers against lefties woopty doo. Our cathers currently our thole and anthny recker. They havent even signed shoppach. Our 1B hit 32 homers but with a .225 avg! Tehada had what 1 home run? Murphy hit what 8 homers? If its me i trade a number 3 not my number 1 i dont care how young he is. If he was a star hed be one already.
"Therefore we are assuming Harvey and Wheeler will be very good. If we have Dickey who is very good and some solid guys like gee and lannan (maybe a lil santana if hes healthy) rounding out the rotation. We can contend without Niese ."
Honestly, I don't think you can think like that. Niese had a VERY solid season in 2012. I happen to like quality lefties.
Will Harvey and Wheeler be very good? No idea. Maybe both, maybe just one, maybe neither (least likely).
Thinking they might be good or not should not impact what you want to do with Niese. I agree we could get something that has great potential, but even Myers may not succeed. But what we DO have is a quality starter already with Niese, and I hate to gamble letting him go.
You're right about those other things (the OF being a large void, and the C spot not good) but if you trade Niese for a prospect, you just weakened the rotation for the *chance* of filling in one of those holes. If he had a serious SP glut, maybe.
"if its me i trade a number 3 not my number 1 i dont care how young he is. If he was a star hed be one already."
Not true Cliff Lee's career ERA was 4.88 when he was Jon Niese age.
Remember when people made fun of me for talking about the Nose job and how it would help him? How he was always very good in the first half but fell off in the second which would indicate he wore down, All the so called realist were quick to say "the league figured him out", Umm did they figure him out in the second of 2010 but forget in the first half of 2011 and then remember again? LOL
Neise is a very good young pitcher who worn down two years in a row, Being able to breath right is big for pitchers and stamina can go along way.
>>>"This is Jon niese we're talking bout here, there is nothing dominant about him. He throws hard not super hard, great curve, but no amazing reportoire other than that. Hes just a solid pitcher"<<<
... and yet the Royals feel that he's worthy of giving up their best prospects for ( the #3 prospect in all baseball. ...and yet a number of other teams are after him too.
A guy doesn't have to have dominating stuff to be a winner, even a big winner. This game is as much about having a great mental approach, and mound generalship, as it is about having talent. I've seen a million guys with better stuff than Neise, not get as far as he has to this point (guys like Pelfrey and Perez were perfect example of guys with good stuff but lacking the head).
And lets not forget that Neise is still getting even better. I don't think anyone is saying he'll ever be a dominating ace like a Johan has been in his career, but that doesn't mean that a guy like this can't have extreme value as a top notch #3 or decent #2.
While I would not say that Neise is untouchable (especially if you are getting someone back like Myers), I would say that you don't trade a kid like this unless you have no other option. Right now we do have another option, and his name is Dickey.
He's a decade+ older than Neise, will make a ton more than Neise in 2014/15 if we extend him, and he may not even still be here when the team is ready to win a World Series.
If my back is against the wall, then yeah, I could see a Neise/Myers deal, but then I would still want to trade Dickey for a top teir pitching prospect to go along with Wheeler & Harvey ( like Ordorizzi ) + another outfield prospect.