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    • Niese is being so overrated
  • To:All
  • 12/7/12
  • OrangeandBlue86

I had a revelation last night when I looked at nieses stats. I was in the, no way don't trade Niese camp cus hes still young hes a good lefty and signed super cheap for 5 years. But then i came to my senses and thought about it while looking at his stats. His era was 4.40 2 years ago. He's had some injuries, he had durability problems every year where he wore down towards the end except last yr. I remember mgmt was concerned bout his conditioning.

Maybe the nose operation really did help his breathing and conditioning and maybe he really is coming into his own, but i watched most of his games last yr and he still had a few real pathetic ballgames. The one in Toronto was horrendous. He's still not that reliable pitcher that u can think of as a number 2 starter on a winning team. Now if harvey dominates this year and wheeler comes up and does the same, while dickey does his thing again, then niese will be just fine as a solid 3, 4 or even 5 starter but to not trade him for a guy like will myers is absolutely insane. This is Jon niese we're talking bout here, there is nothing dominant about him. He throws hard not super hard, great curve, but no amazing reportoire other than that. Hes just a solid pitcher. R.A. can be good to great the next few yrs, so can harvey and wheeler. I see good potential from Niese but not great like the other 3.


Edited 12/7/12   by  OrangeandBlue86
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  • 12/7/12
  • 4545_ajd

The nose job did help him tremendously, he got better as the season went along as he got in better shape, just imagine how much different it is working out not being able to breathe vs working out being able to breathe properly.

In the past he would struggle down the stretch this year, he got better.


Edited 12/7/12   by  4545_ajd
Edited 12/7/12   by  4545_ajd
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  • 12/7/12
  • OrangeandBlue86

I agree but i still don't trust it completely. He's a met i never beleive someone is actually becoming a legitimately really good player on this team lol

I actually trust Dickey more becuase Dickey has had 3 excellent years. People act like dickey was a one yr fluke. He totally wasnt, with any run support he would have had 15-18 wins both of the previous years. Possibly even 20 on some teams in 2011.

He had the longest quality start streak of anyone in basball last yr before his cy young year. I know hes older and his knuckler is harder, but hes still a knuckler and could be our ace for 2 or 3 yrs. For 12-13 mill a year, youd have to be insane not to take that risk. Niese to me just doenst have the track record and i felt he was much better in april and may then the rest of the year even though he wasnt breaking down. I'd love to keep niese dont get me wrong, i wish the mets could just fill their holes with free agents like everyone else is doing but we are the mets and we arent so trade niese for myers please!


Edited 12/7/12   by  OrangeandBlue86
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  • 12/7/12
  • anthony888

Are you kidding me?
Are you expecting 30+ quality starts. Things will happen. He may not be on his game all the time, but he kept us in as many games as anyone would expect from a #3 starter.
IMO, I think he's a big part of our future.

I disagree with everything you said.

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  • 12/7/12
  • 4545_ajd

"Niese to me just doenst have the track record and i felt he was much better in april and may then the rest of the year even though he wasnt breaking down. "

That is because the team was winning in April and May

Niese

April 2.81 ERA
May 6.07 ERA

August 2.61 ERA
September 2.49 ERA

And speaking about quality starts, Niese had a quality start in 73% of his games, that is the 8th best % in all of baseball.

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  • 12/7/12
  • 4545_ajd

Niese if anything had an underrated season, since he was at his best when the team was at it's worse.

Only Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez and now Dickey have had lower WHIPs for the Mets in a full than Niese had this year since 1999, and all three of them only did it once.


Edited 12/7/12   by  4545_ajd
Edited 12/7/12   by  4545_ajd
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  • 12/7/12
  • OrangeandBlue86
Im just saying that id do a niese for myers in a heartbeat. The mets never produce power hitters like Myers. David Wright Reyes and Davis are all we've produced as far as position players in years and ike hit .225 so we dont even know for sure what he is yet. If u have a chance to get will myers u get him! I love niese in the rotation dont get me wrong but he is not a star pitcher. Will he be someday? I dont think so. Star pitchers generally are stars already by his age. He's not a finesse guy that will mature with age. He needs his velocity and curve. When he starts to lose a mph or two, youll see he's just a middle of the rotation guy. Mark my words. He doesnt have the "it" factor. Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, etc etc. Can u even think of niese in that group of names? Heck no and hes gonna be 27 next year.
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  • 12/7/12
  • 4545_ajd
I would probably make that trade too if we had to, but you never no what is going to happen, no one thought Gio Gonzalez was going to be as good as he was this year lefties usually take longer to fully mature and reach their potential. And just to let you know Niese just turned 26 a month ago so he won't turn 27 until after the season.
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  • 12/7/12
  • OrangeandBlue86

ok lets get one thing straight. If Harvey and Wheeler dont become great pitchers or at least one of them, the mets are a doomed franchise for the next decade.

Therefore we are assuming Harvey and Wheeler will be very good. If we have Dickey who is very good and some solid guys like gee and lannan (maybe a lil santana if hes healthy) rounding out the rotation. We can contend without Niese . Over the yrs we can sign a big free agent pitcher or 2 to replace dickey and whoever else. But if we dont have an offense its all for naught. You mean to tell me you wouldnt take a guy who can possibly hit .300 with 35-40 homers in left field for a guy who is 27 next yr and his best yr was a 3.40 era. He was well over 4 every yr before this. Niese is a nice pitcher but if u dont trade ur nice number 3 pitcher who wil never be a star to KC for a bonafide super prosect ur nuts.

Let me remind u of this met offense. Baxter could be our left fielder! Niewenhuis could be our center fielder! Duda could be in right! Hairston may be re-signed to hit some meaninless solo homers against lefties woopty doo. Our cathers currently our thole and anthny recker. They havent even signed shoppach. Our 1B hit 32 homers but with a .225 avg! Tehada had what 1 home run? Murphy hit what 8 homers? If its me i trade a number 3 not my number 1 i dont care how young he is. If he was a star hed be one already.

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  • 12/7/12
  • fargol

"Therefore we are assuming Harvey and Wheeler will be very good. If we have Dickey who is very good and some solid guys like gee and lannan (maybe a lil santana if hes healthy) rounding out the rotation. We can contend without Niese ."

Honestly, I don't think you can think like that. Niese had a VERY solid season in 2012. I happen to like quality lefties.

Will Harvey and Wheeler be very good? No idea. Maybe both, maybe just one, maybe neither (least likely).

Thinking they might be good or not should not impact what you want to do with Niese. I agree we could get something that has great potential, but even Myers may not succeed. But what we DO have is a quality starter already with Niese, and I hate to gamble letting him go.

You're right about those other things (the OF being a large void, and the C spot not good) but if you trade Niese for a prospect, you just weakened the rotation for the *chance* of filling in one of those holes. If he had a serious SP glut, maybe.

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  • 12/7/12
  • 4545_ajd

"if its me i trade a number 3 not my number 1 i dont care how young he is. If he was a star hed be one already."

Not true Cliff Lee's career ERA was 4.88 when he was Jon Niese age.

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  • 12/7/12
  • OrangeandBlue86
rare exception, doesnt mean u dont get myers
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  • 12/7/12
  • OrangeandBlue86
I hear u, i dont wanna trade niese either. I wish they could just spend money like everybody else so we can keep our rotation intact. We could be contenders this yr if the mets had money its such a shame. Dickey niese santan harvey gee with wheeler waiting in the wings. If we just had money they coulda signed pagan or bourn, napoli and maybe even ross or ludwick too. this team could be aweseome. But we know ownership cant do that so thats why im all for trading niese now
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  • 12/7/12
  • AdrianMonk

I feel the same way.
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  • 12/7/12
  • 4545_ajd
They are going to do something in the outfield, but right now the options aren't very good. They didn't defer Wright's and Bays contracts for no reason, And they did say payroll will be higher this year than last, which will be stupid to say if it weren't true since we will find out in just a few months.
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  • 12/7/12
  • Kranesback
Neise is onlt overrated if you consider him an ace. He's solid. The only starter we currently have who is really overrated is Gee, but the FO would prefer him in the pen anyway.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 12/7/12
  • saztastic2012

Remember when people made fun of me for talking about the Nose job and how it would help him? How he was always very good in the first half but fell off in the second which would indicate he wore down, All the so called realist were quick to say "the league figured him out", Umm did they figure him out in the second of 2010 but forget in the first half of 2011 and then remember again? LOL

Neise is a very good young pitcher who worn down two years in a row, Being able to breath right is big for pitchers and stamina can go along way.

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  • 12/7/12
  • 86kid

>>>"This is Jon niese we're talking bout here, there is nothing dominant about him. He throws hard not super hard, great curve, but no amazing reportoire other than that. Hes just a solid pitcher"<<<

... and yet the Royals feel that he's worthy of giving up their best prospects for ( the #3 prospect in all baseball. ...and yet a number of other teams are after him too.

A guy doesn't have to have dominating stuff to be a winner, even a big winner. This game is as much about having a great mental approach, and mound generalship, as it is about having talent. I've seen a million guys with better stuff than Neise, not get as far as he has to this point (guys like Pelfrey and Perez were perfect example of guys with good stuff but lacking the head).

And lets not forget that Neise is still getting even better. I don't think anyone is saying he'll ever be a dominating ace like a Johan has been in his career, but that doesn't mean that a guy like this can't have extreme value as a top notch #3 or decent #2.

While I would not say that Neise is untouchable (especially if you are getting someone back like Myers), I would say that you don't trade a kid like this unless you have no other option. Right now we do have another option, and his name is Dickey.

He's a decade+ older than Neise, will make a ton more than Neise in 2014/15 if we extend him, and he may not even still be here when the team is ready to win a World Series.

If my back is against the wall, then yeah, I could see a Neise/Myers deal, but then I would still want to trade Dickey for a top teir pitching prospect to go along with Wheeler & Harvey ( like Ordorizzi ) + another outfield prospect.


Edited 12/7/12   by  86kid
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  • To:All
  • 12/7/12
  • abbymart
I don't think Niese should be untouchable by any means but let's not underestimate the year he had in 2012. Only 7 pitchers had more quality starts then him
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  • 12/7/12
  • jets_mets
I hate when people act like they know exactly what will happen with a player. This is baseball ups and downs all the time. Neise is young and took a huge step forward last year. Had one of the most underrated seasons for a starting pitcher and yet somehow you come up with some B.S to say that he is overrated. Give me a break. Plenty of pitchers don't put it together right away. Neise is still very young and managed to stay healthy all of last season. He said it himself he figured out how to stay in good shape throughout the season which helped him down the stretch.
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