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  • To:All
  • 1/25/13
  • plantier79
Hello to all my fellow baseball fans out there. I'm new to the MLB blogging community. Been a Baseball fanatic my whole life. Anyways just wanting to introduce myself. My favorite team is (of course) the SEATTLE MARINERS... I just love baseball period. My favorite player is Eric Thames!! I really believe he has a butt load of potential to be one of the best homerun hitters in the game; especially being Seattle is bringing the fences this year!! Just youtube Eric Thames and watch for yourself, Raw power!! And that swing is beautiful!! I really think the M's are going to be a serious contender this year with the addition of Kendrys Morales (and Thank God that they are bringing the fences in) I'm really excited for my M's!!! Eric Thames could hit 40 bombs, Morales will hopefully be an MVP contender. I think Justin Smoak will emerge into one of the best hitters in the game with a .315/31/110 slash line type of season. As you can tell I'm very optimistic about my favorite teams and players. When I was a kid PHIL PLANTIER as my fave player. Do any of you remember him? That crouched stance, tremendous uppercut, uncoiling all or nothing swing. Injuries plagued his career. I remember Ted Williams predicting ol' Plantier to quote: "LEAD THE 90'S IN HOMERUNS" I believe he could've and would've (IF) he hadn't have got hurt; AND his inability to hit breaking balls. haha....Anyways looking forward to talking baseball with all of you. God Bless; back,back,back GONE
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  • 1/26/13
  • brotherfox

Welcome to the Moose Lodge. The more the merrier.

I like your enthusiasm for Thames, and you led me to some research that yielded interesting results. By checking out his Average True Home Run Distance and Average Standard Home Run Distance on the Hit Tracker site and comparing last year's numbers with the previous year's, I discovered what's probably a graphic image of the power-suppressing nature of Safeco Field.

Last year, five of his nine HR left the yard at Safeco. His Average True Distance was 400.6 ft. and his Average Standard Distance was 399.4 ft.

In 2011, only one of his HR went out of at Safeco, and it was the shortest distance of all his HR's. His AVG True Distance was 408.9 ft. and his AVG Standard Distance was 406.8 ft.

The good news is, he was able to crush some bombs even at Safeco last year, driving the ball 426 and 424 feet. I imagine those went out in warm weather without a contrary breeze.

But I don't know where he stands, options-wise. I'd prefer not to lose him because of an outfield overcrowded with the likes of Ibanez and Bay. I hope we can hang onto him in Tacoma if there's no place for him with the big club, but somebody else will have to advise me of his status. Something tells me he's a guy being victimized by lack of opportunity and a bit of a rush to judgment.


Edited 1/26/13   by  brotherfox
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  • 1/26/13
  • silmae

Welcome, plantier79*!

Glad to have you with us. (btw, brother, love the Moose Lodge) I hope your enthusiasm carries through the season. I, too, like Eric Thames and I hope we can keep him in the majors. Those stats are looking pretty good for him.

See ya around, friend.

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  • 1/26/13
  • plantier79
thanks buddy!!! Us M's fans have alot to be excited about.
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  • 1/26/13
  • plantier79
wow brotherfox; I can tell your a statistical genius. I appreciate you doing a little research on Eric Thames, he's got major pop!! I wish our outfield wasn't so crowded. I'm not too big on the signing of Jason Bay. (but to each his own) I'm really confident that we are going to hit alot of homeruns this year. As you can probably already tell-I'm all about the long ball. I think that Smoak,Morse, and MORALES are going to provide plenty. I just hope they give Thames some at-bats as well. I'd hate to waste his swing in the minors or even worse with another team.
Who do you think will lead the club in homeruns this year? and what do you think about Smoak finally coming into his own?? That last month of 12' was hopefully a sign of good things to come
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  • 1/26/13
  • brotherfox

Thanks, plantier, but heck no -- I'm no kind of genius, statistical or otherwise. If I'm a stats geek, a billy goat's a gourmet. But I can get my mind around the simpler numbers, and it helps when the contrast is as simple and obvious as Eric's two samples of HR data.

I've begun to wonder if the main reason Z signed Bay was to flip him for prospects if he has a rebound year.

I think Morales has the edge to lead in HR because he had the fewest at-bats per home run last year. You might be surprised to learn that Smoak had the best AB/HR on the Mariners last year, then Saunders, Seager, and Montero, in that order. I'm expecting Ackley to show more power now that he's had the bone spurs taken out of his heel, but I don't see him leading in HR. Personally, I'd like to see Montero win that competition. Morales might be gone in a year, and hopefully Jesus will have a long future with our team. But I wouldn't be bummed if Smoak finally got it together, either.

I agree. I think we're going to see a power surge this year. I'm stoked.

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  • 1/26/13
  • urbanman

Once put on a 40 man, players can be moved between the big club and the minors freely for three years of a players career. The definition of a year is being on the 40 man, and serving at least 20 days in the minors. In other words, if a player on the 40 man serves 19 days in the minors, the rest of the time in the bigs, that does NOT count as year. Rehabilitation assignments also do not count.

There are some unique conditions under which a fourth year is allowed, but that's a subject for another day.

Since Thames has played parts of only two seasons in the bigs (2011 and 2012), combined with significant time in the minors in those years, the Ms will be free to assign him to the minors in 2013 if they wish.

.


Edited 1/26/13   by  urbanman
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  • 1/26/13
  • brotherfox
Thanks for the sharing that arcana, urby. That being the case, I'm thinking that Thames to Tacoma is pretty much a lock.
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  • 1/26/13
  • NotABaseballGuy

"But I don't know where he stands, options-wise."

He has one left.

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  • 1/27/13
  • plantier79
I too think Morales will lead the club in homers. We might have 3 guys with 30 plus homeruns; with Morales, Morse, and Smoak. We are definitely going to have an offensive offense to the opposing pictures (haha). I'm STOKED for the season!! I just really wish Thames could get a chance (and maybe he will have a tremendous Spring). His swing is picture perfect. I'd hate to see him start the season in Tacoma. But, Better that than to lose him to say the Astros, Mets, or any other team that would put him in the lineup everyday. As for Michael Morse, I'm hoping he returns to the form of being a beast like he was in 11' for the Nats. I really like Justin Smoak (I know alot of you feel we need to get rid of him) but I think that would be a HUGE mistake. This Guy could be a Chipper Jones caliber hitter (with more power) Now, don't call me crazy just yet? lets just wait and see how his numbers look around the end of May. lol
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  • 1/27/13
  • urbanman

Whoa. The entire AL, in 2012, had 15 players with 30+ HRs. Texas, NYY, Det, Bal had 2 each, the Halos had 3. Of this list, only the Halos missed the post season, with 89 wins.

Enthusiasm is great, but keep it real.

=====

We might have 3 guys with 30 plus homeruns; with Morales, Morse, and Smoak.

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  • To:All
  • 1/28/13
  • marinergb
Welcome, you may be new to this forum, I'm new to baseball! However I did see Thames hit a homer in my only live game so he will always hold a special place in my heart. I do worry that he wont be in the 25 though.
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  • 1/28/13
  • plantier79

I tend to be a little too optimistic with my M's...What I meant was that we have 3 guys with 30 hr POTENTIAL. Actually I think we have 5 guys with 30 hr POTENTIAL. Will it happen? not a chance. but the POTENTIAL is there.

Jesus Montero
Michael Morse
Kendrys Morales
Justin Smoak
Eric Thames

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  • 1/28/13
  • plantier79
ahh cool, you witnessed the POWER of Eric Thames!!! He's my favorite player. The M's outfield just has soooo many great players tho. It's gonna be hard for him to crack the 25 man roster, unless he has an AMAZING spring.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/28/13
  • Chris88
Seager wasn't far off of 30. Saunders dropped 20. Wouldn't be surprised to see near 30 HR seasons from either of those guys.
  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/28/13
  • plantier79

I think the M's have (6 or 7) 30 HR candidates
-especially with bringing the fences in.....

Morales
Morse
Seager
Saunders
Smoak
Montero
Thames

  • Reply to this Message
  • 1/28/13
  • Chris88
The question remains, if our own HR production goes up because of the new fences won't our opponents? And doesn't that end up making it a bit of a wash?
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