Here's a well written blog post comparing the Mariners to Moneyball tactics. It begs the question about whether the Mariners are building the right way.

Part 1
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=7339

Part 2
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=7354

I'm not a SABR guy but if I was this would be a great read. Comparing how certain teams adopted a SABR philosophy or partial SABR mentality.

Lots of interesting data there. However, this is the second writer in a month whom I've encountered who couldn't spell "parity":

"On the surface, baseball’s new CBA appears like it would create parody."

Not the only error, by any means, but the funniest.

Yeah when the guy wrote that up he probably forgot to spell check. I wouldn't have the patience to write such a analysis. Brings back nightmares about research papers in college.

Typos aside, I think he lays out his case very well. Thanks for posting the links.

"In the end, I’d have to say Moneyball is a nice philosophy … but this next offseason, I’ll be interested to see if the Mariners put their money where their mouth is."

His conclusion.

I don't really think it is entirely accurate to call the way the Mariners are doing it Moneyball. Moneyball isn't a system. Did the Texas Rangers follow Moneyball? The Braves? Yankees?

Everyone is looking to build through youth. Everyone is looking for market inefficiencies. The only way that we can separate out people that are going to have a better chance at success from the rest is to look at how much information they are using to make decisions. Because with everything in life the more you know and consider the better the odds that the decision you make is going to work out for you.

So would it be safe to say that GMZ employs a little Moneyball mixed with old school talent evaluation kinda like a hybrid? I heard it reported that he will spend money when the time is right.

You're welcome.

Z's always been a scout first guy. He made his career by being a superior scout. At the time of the signing us sabermetric guys weren't actually happy. We wanted a stats first GM. But over time when it became apparent that he was also going to have a stats department heavily involved we became more pleased with him as a GM.

Z's never been a sabermetric guy, but he's brought in people like Tom Tango that ARE and I think that gives the organization a good mix. It wouldn't be accurate to call us a moneyball team, some sort of hybrid was always going to be the future. More knowledge is better, and that doesn't mean discounting old school scouting.

> he will spend money when the time is right.

That's what he's said the entire time he's been here. I think we're finally getting to a point where the time will be right. It wouldn't have made sense to give 100 million to cuddyer and buehrle last off season, but this off season spending some money could be what puts us above .500 and into contention. It all just depends on spending that money in a smart way.

greinkegreinkegreinkegreinkegreinkegreinke....

Part of the dark side is that we all love Felix and he can be someone to build around. Forget about the sentimental value for a moment. What does the FO do about Felix in the offseason? Do they offer him a extension, or sign him long term?

The dilemma is Figgy will be owed a large chunk in 2013. And who knows how much goes into the rest of the team. Would he FO shrink payroll again next year?

I really don't trust a Felix trade or don't want to see one. If he is ever traded its most likely to a NL team and could follow a similar path like Cliff Lee. By that I mean NYY, LAA, or TEX. Chances are if he is ever traded and the M's make the playoffs. The M's would likely face him at some point.

There's so much wrong with that analysis, I don't know where to begin.

Extend him, add 5 years on. Make it a 7 year deal starting next year. Lock him up thru 33-34 years old. 25 mil a year, do it tomorrow.

The Moneyball analysis that I linked or the comment about Felix?

For more clarification... I don't expect or see Felix being traded. I hope he stays. The problem is a certain poster on another message board is arguing that he should be traded. Me and others tried to reason with him but he won't listen.

"Z's always been a scout first guy. He made his career by being a superior scout. At the time of the signing us sabermetric guys weren't actually happy. We wanted a stats first GM. But over time when it became apparent that he was also going to have a stats department heavily involved we became more pleased with him as a GM.

Z's never been a sabermetric guy, but he's brought in people like Tom Tango that ARE and I think that gives the organization a good mix. It wouldn't be accurate to call us a moneyball team, some sort of hybrid was always going to be the future. More knowledge is better, and that doesn't mean discounting old school scouting.

> he will spend money when the time is right.

That's what he's said the entire time he's been here. I think we're finally getting to a point where the time will be right. It wouldn't have made sense to give 100 million to cuddyer and buehrle last off season, but this off season spending some money could be what puts us above .500 and into contention. It all just depends on spending that money in a smart way."

I could see that seriously I don't see the Mariners as a Moneyball team per se. The reasons why? I believe the Ichiros and Felix's would all be gone already. There's more I can't recall off of memory. I still could see him signing the good player(s) that make sense. Felix for example. Why wouldn't you resign him? He's worth every penny in performance and is a catalyst for the clubhouse.

As he's said when the time is right they will spend that could be future FA's or whatever.

The Mariners don't need 100% Moneyball as they have money put away for the future. The FO isn't going to spend willy nilly when they could put the money to better use. You're small market teams tend to feel it is the smart way to overcome the competition level.

The Mariners aren't a small market team. The payroll may be small but that's just budgeting spending money vs revenue made etc...

I think the Mariners may have gotten past just being a parody of a baseball team. They have actually been pretty good lately.

If Felix were to sign with anybody, especially the Mariners, I think he would want to have an opt out clause similar to Sabathia. Plus, you are suggesting a contract similar to what Sabathia had three years ago. When Felix inks his next contract, it will be historical. I think he will get over eight years and a contract of 200+. I think a lot of fans think salaries stay pretty constant and baseball. Whatever the big contract was last year, tack on millions and years to the big contract next year.

"The Moneyball analysis that I linked or the comment about Felix?"

The former.

I could understand that. Not saying the analysis is correct and one thing that struck me was that the authors opinion seems to be GMZ and co. is all about Moneyball.

That said I thought the topic makes for interesting discussion nevertheless. Agreement or scrutiny I thought some of the members cold chime in.