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    • Keith Law's analysis of the trade
  • 11/13/12
  • renegadetb
Dont have insider,
Post it please!
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  • 11/13/12
  • thehurl
<p>The Blue Jays-Marlins trade, pending physicals, is a five-for-seven swap that sees the Jays getting Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck in exchange for prospects Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony Desclafani and big leaguers Henderson Alvarez, Jeff Mathis, Yunel Escobar, and Adeiny Hechavarria. It's a huge deal in numbers and in its potential to impact the standings of two divisions in 2013, with the Jays poised to be the most relevant they've been in 20 years while the Marlins live down to the reputation the franchise acquired in 1997-98 and has deserved ever since.</p><p>The Blue Jays get a lot of impact talent in this deal, making them contenders (at least for the moment) in 2013 without substantially damaging their chances to contend in future years. Johnson is an ace when healthy, which he seldom is; he finished the year looking strong, back to 93-97 with a plus curveball and above-average slider again, and if he looks like that all year he could be worth 5 wins above replacement to a Jays team that hasn't had that guy since they traded Roy Halladay.</p><p>[+] Enlarge </p><p>AP Photo/Matt Slocum<br />Jose Reyes is a major upgrade for the Jays.<br />Johnson tops the rotation ahead of Brandon Morrow, behind whom they'll slot Buehrle, a reliable innings-eater who reached 200 innings for the 12th straight season, but whose below-average fastball isn't an ideal fit for Toronto's homer-friendly home park. Even if he dips to just below league-average, the Jays desperately need the innings he'll provide, given the elbow plague that infected their rotation in 2012. If Johnson is healthy and Ricky Romero gets back to his old form, this will be one of the league's best rotations in 2013, although the probability of both of those things happening in one calendar year is not that high.</p><p>Reyes becomes the Jays' everyday shortstop, the best one they've had since Tony Fernandez left after the 1999 season. His 2011 walk year was built on a batting average he wasn't likely to see again, but the remainder of his skill set -- average defense at short, above-average running, good plate coverage, modest pop -- remains intact, and at shortstop that's going to be worth 4-to-6 wins over replacement, and a quick upgrade of about 3 over what the Jays got out of shortstop this past season.</p><p>They'll also get value from having Bonifacio as a supersub, a plus runner who can play six spots on the diamond, five of them well enough to handle on a part-time basis. Buck is a $6 million backup catcher, adding to Toronto's pile of catching while the Marlins get to dump a contract that was dumb the day that Marlins gave it to him and looks just as bad now. He might be headed on to a third team, or could make it easier for the Jays to deal J.P. Arencibia and make room for catcher-of-the-future Travis d'Arnaud.</p><p>The lone negative for Jays fans is that the team has acquired a substantial amount of money, with Buehrle and Reyes both under contract beyond this year and possibly limiting the team's ability to make further moves this offseason or next. Buehrle is the biggest risk of the three major names coming back to fail to produce up to the level of his salary, although he happens to give the club the healthy/durable starter they desperately needed and might have had to overpay to get in free agency.</p><p>I'd offer my condolences to the Marlins' fans if I could only find them. Of all the players Miami got in return, only two stand out as guys the Blue Jays might someday miss, outfielder Marisnick and left-hander Nicolino.</p><p>Marisnick was the highest-rated coming into the 2012 season and had a solid first-half in high Class A before struggling with his approach after a midseason promotion to Double-A. The tools are still there -- above-average runner, above-average arm, plenty of range for center, more raw power than in-game -- but that approach is becoming a greater concern as he gets older and it doesn't improve, especially when he's beatable both on breaking stuff and on hard stuff up or in. I also worry about the power not playing in games because he has virtually no load, so he doesn't get extended well enough before making contact, although that's something that could be tweaked. He's a strong prospect, but not as exciting as he looked 10 months ago.</p><p>[+] Enlarge </p><p>Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images<br />Escobar's antics have now gotten him run out of Atlanta and Toronto.<br />Nicolino's stat line is a little misleading, as he's not a power pitcher but a finesse left-hander with an average fastball that touches 93 mph and a plus changeup. He can flat-out pitch, with poise and approach that belie his age, and an easy, repeatable delivery. He may not miss as many bats as he moves up the ladder and doesn't offer any projection, but lefties with feel and a good change can pitch towards the middle of a rotation for a long time.</p><p>Henderson Alvarez had a plus fastball and plus changeup when he was coming up in the Jays' system, but the fastball has backed off a little and he's been unable to keep his changeup down in the zone, while he's never developed an average breaking ball, all of which has dropped his outlook from potential No. 2 starter to probable reliever. The Marlins can and should give Alvarez another year or so in the rotation to see if any of those issues resolves with experience or a new coaching staff, but as it stands now he doesn't miss enough bats to be a major league starter.</p><p>Anthony DeSclafani is definitely a reliever, where he'll touch 95 but needs to get more consistent tilt on his slider; he's a strike-thrower who did get to refine his off-speed stuff somewhat this year as a starter in low-A.</p><p>Jeff Mathis has a career .256 OBP in more than1,500 plate appearances and is probably best not discussed any further.</p><p>Yunel Escobar is probably better known for his bad makeup than he is for his on-field skills and has now run himself out of two cities; he doesn't walk or hit for power and his only offensive production in Toronto came at home in the first half of 2011, but he makes enough contact and adds value with his glove to make him a 2-win player.</p><p>Adeiny Hechavarria is a 70 defender at shortstop (on the 20-80 scouting scale) both in glove and arm, and is never going to hit -- but replacement level at short right now is low enough that he could be a 2-win player, although one of these two guys has to move off short. Both were born in Cuba and may, in theory, appeal to Cuban-American Marlins fans who aren't thoroughly disgusted by the way the team's ownership is running the franchise back into the subterranean hole out of which they originally crawled.</p><p>Those limicolous owners are the greatest joke of all in this deal, rooking Florida taxpayers for a publicly-funded stadium, only to make one half-hearted attempt to fill it with a contending team, surrendering it after the season to return to their old business model, playing a skeleton-crew lineup while pocketing all of their revenue-sharing money. This isn't a bad baseball dea
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  • 11/13/12
  • 43211234
Much appreciated, hurl.
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  • 11/13/12
  • jaybooster
<p><br />Blue Jays make big gains at low cost </p><p> November, 13, 2012<br />Nov 13</p><p>10:11</p><p>PM ET</p><p> <br />Recommend7<br /> Tweet25<br /> Comments25<br />Email<br /> Print<br /> </p><p>The Blue Jays-Marlins trade, pending physicals, is a five-for-seven swap that sees the Jays getting Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck in exchange for prospects Jake Marisnick, Justin Nicolino, and Anthony Desclafani and big leaguers Henderson Alvarez, Jeff Mathis, Yunel Escobar, and Adeiny Hechavarria. It's a huge deal in numbers and in its potential to impact the standings of two divisions in 2013, with the Jays poised to be the most relevant they've been in 20 years while the Marlins live down to the reputation the franchise acquired in 1997-98 and has deserved ever since.<br /> <br />The Blue Jays get a lot of impact talent in this deal, making them contenders (at least for the moment) in 2013 without substantially damaging their chances to contend in future years. Johnson is an ace when healthy, which he seldom is; he finished the year looking strong, back to 93-97 with a plus curveball and above-average slider again, and if he looks like that all year he could be worth 5 wins above replacement to a Jays team that hasn't had that guy since they traded Roy Halladay. </p><p>[+] Enlarge <br />AP Photo/Matt SlocumJose Reyes is a major upgrade for the Jays.<br /> <br />Johnson tops the rotation ahead of Brandon Morrow, behind whom they'll slot Buehrle, a reliable innings-eater who reached 200 innings for the 12th straight season, but whose below-average fastball isn't an ideal fit for Toronto's homer-friendly home park. Even if he dips to just below league-average, the Jays desperately need the innings he'll provide, given the elbow plague that infected their rotation in 2012. If Johnson is healthy and Ricky Romero gets back to his old form, this will be one of the league's best rotations in 2013, although the probability of both of those things happening in one calendar year is not that high.</p><p>Reyes becomes the Jays' everyday shortstop, the best one they've had since Tony Fernandez left after the 1999 season. His 2011 walk year was built on a batting average he wasn't likely to see again, but the remainder of his skill set -- average defense at short, above-average running, good plate coverage, modest pop -- remains intact, and at shortstop that's going to be worth 4-to-6 wins over replacement, and a quick upgrade of about 3 over what the Jays got out of shortstop this past season. </p><p>They'll also get value from having Bonifacio as a supersub, a plus runner who can play six spots on the diamond, five of them well enough to handle on a part-time basis. Buck is a $6 million backup catcher, adding to Toronto's pile of catching while the Marlins get to dump a contract that was dumb the day that Marlins gave it to him and looks just as bad now. He might be headed on to a third team, or could make it easier for the Jays to deal J.P. Arencibia and make room for catcher-of-the-future Travis d'Arnaud.</p><p>The lone negative for Jays fans is that the team has acquired a substantial amount of money, with Buehrle and Reyes both under contract beyond this year and possibly limiting the team's ability to make further moves this offseason or next. Buehrle is the biggest risk of the three major names coming back to fail to produce up to the level of his salary, although he happens to give the club the healthy/durable starter they desperately needed and might have had to overpay to get in free agency.</p><p>I'd offer my condolences to the Marlins' fans if I could only find them. Of all the players Miami got in return, only two stand out as guys the Blue Jays might someday miss, outfielder Marisnick and left-hander Nicolino. </p><p>Marisnick was the highest-rated coming into the 2012 season and had a solid first-half in high Class A before struggling with his approach after a midseason promotion to Double-A. The tools are still there -- above-average runner, above-average arm, plenty of range for center, more raw power than in-game -- but that approach is becoming a greater concern as he gets older and it doesn't improve, especially when he's beatable both on breaking stuff and on hard stuff up or in. I also worry about the power not playing in games because he has virtually no load, so he doesn't get extended well enough before making contact, although that's something that could be tweaked. He's a strong prospect, but not as exciting as he looked 10 months ago.<br /> </p><p>[+] Enlarge <br />Tom Szczerbowski/Getty ImagesEscobar's antics have now gotten him run out of Atlanta and Toronto.<br /> <br />Nicolino's stat line is a little misleading, as he's not a power pitcher but a finesse left-hander with an average fastball that touches 93 mph and a plus changeup. He can flat-out pitch, with poise and approach that belie his age, and an easy, repeatable delivery. He may not miss as many bats as he moves up the ladder and doesn't offer any projection, but lefties with feel and a good change can pitch towards the middle of a rotation for a long time.</p><p>Henderson Alvarez had a plus fastball and plus changeup when he was coming up in the Jays' system, but the fastball has backed off a little and he's been unable to keep his changeup down in the zone, while he's never developed an average breaking ball, all of which has dropped his outlook from potential No. 2 starter to probable reliever. The Marlins can and should give Alvarez another year or so in the rotation to see if any of those issues resolves with experience or a new coaching staff, but as it stands now he doesn't miss enough bats to be a major league starter. </p><p>Anthony DeSclafani is definitely a reliever, where he'll touch 95 but needs to get more consistent tilt on his slider; he's a strike-thrower who did get to refine his off-speed stuff somewhat this year as a starter in low-A. </p><p>Jeff Mathis has a career .256 OBP in more than1,500 plate appearances and is probably best not discussed any further.</p><p>Yunel Escobar is probably better known for his bad makeup than he is for his on-field skills and has now run himself out of two cities; he doesn't walk or hit for power and his only offensive production in Toronto came at home in the first half of 2011, but he makes enough contact and adds value with his glove to make him a 2-win player. </p><p>Adeiny Hechavarria is a 70 defender at shortstop (on the 20-80 scouting scale) both in glove and arm, and is never going to hit -- but replacement level at short right now is low enough that he could be a 2-win player, although one of these two guys has to move off short. Both were born in Cuba and may, in theory, appeal to Cuban-American Marlins fans who aren't thoroughly disgusted by the way the team's ownership is running the franchise back into the subterranean hole out of which they originally crawled.</p><p>Those limicolous owners are the greatest joke of all in this de
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  • 11/13/12
  • thehurl
the elderly are so slow
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  • 11/13/12
  • Atothe
Good looking out hurl
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  • 11/13/12
  • jaybooster
haha, I was about to put a note to that effect on there Kev but you busted my butt twice in less than a minute.
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  • 11/13/12
  • B_T_S
Indeed. Surprised at how poorly they regard Hech and Alvarez. I think Henderson will be a decent starter for a long time.
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  • 11/13/12
  • leaffie

This is also from espn insider:

Toronto now a good AL East bet

Proposed trade with the Marlins puts Jays in position for division crown

Updated: November 13, 2012, 8:58 PM ETBy Dan Szymborski | Fire Sale To Blue Jays

Buster Olney on a potential trade between the Marlins and Blue Jays, sending Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, John Buck, and Emilio Bonifacio to Toronto.
Tags: Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, John Buck, Emilio BonifacioMarlins' Fire Sale To Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays played the role of the forgotten team in the AL East in 2012. Three of the AL East teams were in the playoff hunt until the final week of the season while a fourth team, the Boston Red Sox, had a noted collapse. Toronto finished in that muddling middle, never good enough for people to follow the number in the games-behind column, but never bad enough to become a punch line as Boston did.

But that's all about to change, as the Jays have reportedly pulled off a blockbuster with the Miami Marlins, acquiring Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, John Buck and Emilio Bonifacio without giving up anyone who made a significant impact in 2012, and are now projected as a good bet to win the AL East in 2013.

Let's start with the premise that Toronto was much better than the 73-win team it was in 2012. The Jays got an amazing year out of Edwin Encarnacion, but outside of Encarnacion, the team wasn't the beneficiary of much in the way of good luck.

Whether it was Jose Bautista suffering an injury-plagued season or every other significant player underperforming expectations to some degree, from minor disappointment (Brett Lawrie) to disaster of galactic proportions (Ricky Romero), fortune frowned fairly regularly on the Jays. Now, not all of those players will improve in 2013, but as a group, they should improve enough simply from regression toward the mean to add a half-dozen games to the Jays' total, which brings them to 79 wins without factoring in any of the trade acquisitions.

I asked ZiPS to project Toronto's new acquisitions and the computer likes this trade as much as I do. Jose Reyes projects at .293/.343/.450 and 4.5 WAR in Toronto, which combined with a 2.4 WAR projection for Maicer Izturis over a full season as a starting second baseman, represents a four-win improvement over the projections for Yunel Escobar and Adeiny Hechavarria, who are reportedly headed to Miami in the trade.

Toronto's rotation looked weak at the start of the season and after a flurry of Tommy John surgeries -- hopefully the Jays got a group discount -- was a smoking wreckage by the end. Buehrle and Johnson project to add six wins above replacement, and considering they replace innings likely to be thrown by replacement-level (and possibly worse) pitchers, that's likely six net wins, not gross. If Romero's recent elbow surgery fixes him to the point where he can be just half the pitcher he was in 2011, a front four of Johnson, Buehrle, Romero and Brandon Morrow looks downright good.

Bonifacio and Buck don't provide the same big gains that the other three players in the trade bring, but Buck -- with a more typical season -- is worth a few runs more than J.P. Arencibia, and Bonifacio can fake enough positions to provide excellent value as a role player. The Jays still could use a second-tier left fielder to round up the lineup, but GM Alex Anthopoulos has plenty of time left to make an addition there.

So we're looking at a Jays team that projects to win about 90 games, and while Toronto's division rivals in Tampa Bay, Baltimore and New York all won 90 or more regular-season games in 2012, none of the three was an unstoppable juggernaut and all have real concerns heading into 2013.

The Yankees are a rapidly aging team, have holes in the outfield, at designated hitter and in the rotation, and with team management no longer willing to burn through cash faster than a trust-fund baby going on a four-day bender, they're going to be hard-pressed to fill all of those holes without also blowing past the luxury-tax threshold. And don't forget that Robinson Cano is a free agent in a year and probably the hardest hitter in the lineup to replace.

Tampa Bay and Baltimore have their own problems as well. The Rays have a low payroll, but it remains unlikely that the payroll will get much of a boost this offseason and they need a couple of hitters. GM Andrew Friedman is one of the best in baseball at retooling a team on the fly, but that always leaves the risk of ending up like Lucille Ball in that famous "I Love Lucy" clip of the comedienne working at a conveyor belt. And whether you attribute Baltimore's 93-win season to luck, mojo or some combination of Orioles Magic and pit beef, it's hard to deny that Cinderella teams have a strong tendency in baseball to be disappointing the following season.

Add up what the Jays have and what they gained today and you're looking at a team with a mean expectation for wins somewhere in the high 80s or low 90s. The Jays wove straw into gold today and this time, it wasn't just a fairy tale. AL East, you have been warned.

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  • 11/13/12
  • jaybooster

""This isn't a bad baseball deal for Miami, but it's not a baseball deal at all -- it's a boondoggle, perpetrated by owners who have pulled one stunt like this after another, with the implicit approval of the Commissioner's Office. It's time for baseball to rid itself of Jeff Loria and David Samson by any means possible. Miami, the state of Florida, and the sport in general will be better off without them.""

From Keith Law's synopsis of this deal. I agree whole heartedly. Bud's bud is a criminal which makes Bud one too.

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  • 11/13/12
  • pulk_pull
It's the reason why KLaw wants to stay an 'Insider' and not part of the machine
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  • 11/13/12
  • jaybooster

<""It's the reason why KLaw wants to stay an 'Insider' and not part of the machine""

It takes some brassies to call it the way it is and let's face it that fraud in Florida and his buddy Bud cost us the Expos. We should still have a team in the NL.........dammit. Hard to make friend in the industry when you tell the truth about a situation. People don't want to know the truth.

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  • 11/13/12
  • 007jay
In poker terms, by saying JJ gives Jays an out is an under statement. I think the right thing to say is that JJ gives Jays tremendous implied odds.
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  • 11/14/12
  • toguy
that bit at the end about Jeff Loria and David Samson is scathing to put it mildly!
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  • 11/14/12
  • reyesdaroof

I'm in a pretty positive mood, but for the sake of the truth I can't help but say Law's assessment on Johnson is pretty off. I just MLB TV'd a few innings of a couple different games near the end of the season and he was throwing 91-93, not 94-97. Good news is that there is evidence that power pitchers often lose a couple MPH around their late 20's but that it often doesn't actually hurt their K/9 much.

** Update I have now seen him hit 95 a few times, so that is nice.


Edited 11/14/12   by  reyesdaroof
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