No offense to you, but i guess i'm glad you're not a part of that selection panel. ;)
Regardless of how the standings finish, i would honestly still give it to Melvin. I'm trying to be as unbiased as possible here too. Sure, the Orioles were bad Last season, but so were the A's. The A's only had a few more wins than the Orioles so i wouldn't totally saythat Showa,ter has the clear edge there.
Melvin was interim manager last season and pretty much got a brand new team for 2012. Showalter didn't have as much of a personnel change as Melvin did. Whether people believe it or not, the AL West is a more competitive division and the record(s) speak for themselves. Showalter also has AS talent on his roster in guys like Markakis, Jones, Betemit, etc. Reddick should've been an AS talent but he wasn't a solidified player the way some of those Orioles players are.
Think about it, the A's OF was an unknown Cuban player, an aging, DL-prone, weak-armed CF, and a RF who supposedly wasn't good enough to play everyday. The IF had holes at the corner positions, and a decent middle IF. The rotation was pretty much brand new with Mac as the ace (who is a solid #3 starter, IMO), an aging Colon, rookie Milone, etc. Then you have to consider the injuries and turnaround that Melvin had to figure out as well.
I think Melvin should still be the favorite even if they only get the first WC while the Orioles win the AL east. Just my opinion though.